Insider Ownership and Financial Analysts’ Information Environment: Evidence From Dual-Class Firms

We examine the association of insider ownership with financial analysts’ forecast accuracy and dispersion in a sample of U.S. dual-class firms. Insider ownership exerts two effects: a positive incentive effect and a negative entrenchment effect. The lack of significant findings in prior research regarding the association between insider ownership and forecast accuracy may be attributable to the offsetting forces of these two effects. Using a comprehensive hand-collected sample of U.S. firms that maintain more than one class of common stock, we are able to disentangle incentive and entrenchment effects which are confounded in single-class firms. We find that disproportionate insider control is negatively associated with forecast accuracy and positively associated with forecast dispersion. Moreover, insider cash flow rights (insider voting rights) are positively (negatively) associated with forecast accuracy and negatively (positively) associated with forecast dispersion, consistent with incentive-alignment and entrenchment effects of ownership affecting financial analysts’ forecasting environment in opposite directions

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Does information uncertainty affect investors' responses to analysts' forecast revisions? An investigation of accounting restatements

Prior studies provide only limited evidence on how and why investors rely on analyst forecasts. We investigate one aspect of this research paradigm by examining investor response to analyst forecast revisions using accounting restatements as a proxy for uncertainty. We find that investors tend to rely more on the information that analyst characteristics convey about forecast accuracy in restatement firms than in non-restatement firms. The evidence also suggests that the level of restatement intensity and the length of reaction window affect investors' reliance on these characteristics. Further analysis demonstrates that the innovation in forecast revisions also affects the association between investor response and analyst characteristics. Our findings are consistent with increased information uncertainty stimulating investor demand for analyst research.Restatement announcements Analyst forecast revisions Investor information demand Security returns

Predicting Bankruptcy Resolution

This study examines classification and prediction of the bankruptcy resolution event. Filing of bankruptcy is resolved through one of three alternative resolutions: acquisition, emergence or liquidation. Predicting the final bankruptcy resolution has not been examined in the prior accounting and finance literature. This post-bankruptcy classification and prediction of the final resolution is harder than discriminating between healthy and bankrupt firms because all filing firms are already in financial distress. Motivation for predicting the final resolution is developed and enhanced. A sample of 237 firms filing for bankruptcy is used. Classification and prediction accuracies are determined using a logit model. A ten-variable, three-group resolution logit model, which includes five accounting and five non-accounting variables is developed. The model correctly classifies 62 percent of the firms, significantly better than a random classification. We conclude that non-accounting data add relevant information to financial accounting data for predicting post bankruptcy resolution. Further, public policy implications for investors, researchers, bankruptcy judges, claimants and other stakeholders are discussed. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2002.

Confidence intervals for controlling the probability of bankruptcy

This paper provides confidence intervals for the probability of bankruptcy through the control of financial accounting variables. Our analysis differs in several aspects from standard bankruptcy techniques studied in previous studies. This bankruptcy literature generally provides classification techniques, peruses classification accuracy, and produces point estimators of bankruptcy for each firm. Various measures concerned with the confidence intervals are studied to evaluate the risk involved in predicting the probability of bankruptcy; for example, their maximum and minimum lengths, and their maximum lower bound and minimum upper bounds. We show that local minimum and maximum lengths are global. The empirical results illustrate a substantial improvement (reduction) in the length and the minimum upper bound of the confidence intervals at the optimal level of the financial accounting variables, whereas the lengths at the industry averages were significantly lower. The results are robust for three, two, and one year prior to bankruptcy.Financial accounting ratios Bankruptcy Logit modeling Confidence intervals Optimal ratios

Do analysts practice what they preach and should investors listen? Effects of recent regulations. The Accounting Review 84(4

ABSTRACT: From 1994, Bradshaw (2004 finds that analysts' stock recommendations relate negatively to residual income valuation estimates but positively to valuation heuristics based on the price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio and long-term growth. These results are surprising, especially considering that future returns relate positively to residual income valuation estimates and negatively to heuristics. Using a large sample of analysts for the 1993-2005 period, we consider whether recent regulatory reforms affect this apparent inconsistent analyst behavior. Consistent with the intent of these reforms, we find that the negative relation between analysts' stock recommendations and residual income valuations is diminishing following regulations. We also show that residual income valuations, developed using analysts' earnings forecasts, relate more positively with future returns. However, we document that stock recommendations continue to relate negatively with future returns. We conclude that recent regulations have affected analysts' outputs -forecasted earnings and stock recommendations -but investors should be aware that factors other than identifying mispriced stocks continue to influence how analysts recommend stocks