Opposite trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes in Spain (1991–2020)

Objective: The aim of this study is to describe trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes between 1991 and 2012 in Spain, and to project these trends up to 2020. Methods: We estimated daily consumption per capita during 1991–2012 using data on sales of manufactured cigarettes (20-packs) and rolling tobacco (kg) from the Tobacco Market Commission, and using data of the Spanish adult population from the National Statistics Institute. We considered different weights (0.5, 0.8 and 1 g) to compute the number of rolled cigarettes per capita. We computed the annual per cent of change and assessed possible changes in trends using joinpoint regression, and projected the consumption up to 2020 using Bayesian methods. Results: Daily consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes decreased on average by 3.0% per year in 1991–2012, from 7.6 to 3.8 units, with three trend changes. However, daily consumption per capita of roll-your-own cigarettes increased on average by 14.1% per year, from 0.07 to 0.92 units of 0.5 g, with unchanged trends. Together, daily consumption per capita decreased between 2.9% and 2.5%, depending on the weight of the roll-your-own cigarettes. Projections up to 2020 indicate a decrease of manufactured cigarettes (1.75 units per capita) but an increase of roll-your-own cigarettes (1.25 units per capita). Conclusions: While the consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes has decreased in the past years in Spain, the consumption of roll-your-own cigarettes has increased at an annual rate around 14% over the past years. Whereas a net decrease in cigarette consumption is expected in the future, use of roll-your-own cigarettes will continue to increase

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 Europea countries by 2020

Background: We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. Methods: BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. Results: The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. Conclusions: For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted

Five years survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer during the period 1997-1999 in Toledo-Centro and Mancha Area, Spain

Fundamentos: el cáncer de mama representa la primera causa de mortalidad prematura en las mujeres de la provincia de Toledo. El objetivo es conocer el estadío al diagnóstico para cada grupo de edad y la supervivencia relativa (SR) del cáncer de mama a los 5 años, en el Área de Toledo-Centro y Mancha de los tumores diagnosticados durante 1997-1999. Métodos: se utilizó la información del Registro Poblacional de Cáncer de Toledo. Se incluyó a 366 mujeres con tumores clasificados por estadio y grupo de edad (en función de su inclusión en el programa de detección precoz de cáncer de mama, 64). La SR e intervalo de confianza al 95% (IC) fueron calculados mediante el método de Hakulinen utilizando la aplicación WAERS. Resultados: la SR global fue 78,4% (IC: 73,6-83,6), siendo 93,3% (IC: 87,0-99,4) en 64 años. La SR fue 99,3% (IC: 94,4-104,5) para tumores localizados; 81,9% (IC: 74,0-90,8) para tumores con afectación ganglionar; y 20,1% (IC: 9,7-41,6) para tumores con metástasis. Al diagnóstico, el 52,3% de los tumores en 64 años presentaba metástasis. Conclusiones: la SR es similar a la media del estudio EUROCARE-4. Estos resultados son un punto de partida para valorar, mediante el seguimiento de estos indicadores, el impacto de las actividades de detección precoz y terapéuticas en la SR del cáncer de mama en nuestra área

Estimating country-specific incidence rates of rare cancers: comparative perfomance analysis of modeling approaches using European cancer registry data

Estimating incidence of rare cancers is challenging for exceptionally rare entities and in small populations. In a previous study, investigators in the Information Network on Rare Cancers (RARECARENet) provided Bayesian estimates of expected numbers of rare cancers and 95% credible intervals for 27 European countries, using data collected by population-based cancer registries. In that study, slightly different results were found by implementing a Poisson model in integrated nested Laplace approximation/WinBUGS platforms. In this study, we assessed the performance of a Poisson modeling approach for estimating rare cancer incidence rates, oscillating around an overall European average and using small-count data in different scenarios/computational platforms. First, we compared the performance of frequentist, empirical Bayes, and Bayesian approaches for providing 95% confidence/credible intervals for the expected rates in each country. Second, we carried out an empirical study using 190 rare cancers to assess different lower/upper bounds of a uniform prior distribution for the standard deviation of the random effects. For obtaining a reliable measure of variability for country-specific incidence rates, our results suggest the suitability of using 1 as the lower bound for that prior distribution and selecting the random-effects model through an averaged indicator derived from 2 Bayesian model selection criteria: the deviance information criterion and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion

Opposite trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes in Spain (1991-2020)

Objective: the aim of this study is to describe trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes between 1991 and 2012 in Spain, and to project these trends up to 2020. Methods: we estimated daily consumption per capita during 1991-2012 using data on sales of manufactured cigarettes (20-packs) and rolling tobacco (kg) from the Tobacco Market Commission, and using data of the Spanish adult population from the National Statistics Institute. We considered different weights (0.5, 0.8 and 1 g) to compute the number of rolled cigarettes per capita. We computed the annual per cent of change and assessed possible changes in trends using joinpoint regression, and projected the consumption up to 2020 using Bayesian methods. Results: daily consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes decreased on average by 3.0% per year in 1991-2012, from 7.6 to 3.8 units, with three trend changes. However, daily consumption per capita of roll-your-own cigarettes increased on average by 14.1% per year, from 0.07 to 0.92 units of 0.5 g, with unchanged trends. Together, daily consumption per capita decreased between 2.9% and 2.5%, depending on the weight of the roll-your-own cigarettes. Projections up to 2020 indicate a decrease of manufactured cigarettes (1.75 units per capita) but an increase of roll-your-own cigarettes (1.25 units per capita). Conclusions: while the consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes has decreased in the past years in Spain, the consumption of roll-your-own cigarettes has increased at an annual rate around 14% over the past years. Whereas a net decrease in cigarette consumption is expected in the future, use of roll-your-own cigarettes will continue to increase

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies

Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require

Cálculo automatizado de la supervivencia relativa vía web. El proyecto WAERS del Instituto Catalán de Oncología

The most commonly used measure to estimate cancer survival is relative survival, defined as the ratio between observed and expected survival. Expected survival is computed on the basis of the mortality of a reference population. Mortality tables for the general population are not always available and their calculation requires specific software. For that purpose, the Catalan Institute of Oncology developed WAERS (Web-Assisted Estimation of Relative Survival), a web-based application that estimates the relative survival for a cohort of patients. The user prepares data in a specific format and sends them to a remote server located at the Catalan Institute of Oncology. This server computes relative survival and returns a file with the results to the electronic address supplied by the user. By means of this application, hospital- and population-based Spanish cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate relative survival of their cohorts using their reference population (province or autonomous community). This application could also be useful for cohort mortality studies

Automatización de un registro hospitalario de tumores

La medida utilizada habitualmente para estimar la supervivencia del cáncer es la supervivencia relativa, definida como el cociente entre la supervivencia observada y la esperada. La supervivencia esperada se calcula a partir de la mortalidad de una población de referencia. La disponibilidad y la preparación de tablas de mortalidad de la población general no es siempre posible y requiere software específico para su cálculo. A tal efecto, el Instituto Catalán de Oncología (ICO) ha desarrollado la aplicación WAERS, una aplicación web que proporciona la estimación de la supervivencia relativa para una cohorte de pacientes. El usuario debe preparar los datos en un formato específico y enviarlos a un servidor remoto que se encuentra en el ICO. Este servidor calcula la supervivencia relativa y devuelve los resultados en un fichero a una dirección que ha indicado el usuario. Mediante esta aplicación, los registros de cáncer de base hospitalaria y poblacional y los registros de otras enfermedades pueden estimar la supervivencia relativa de sus cohortes seleccionando a la población de referencia que consideren (provincia o comunidad autónoma). También puede ser útil para estudios de mortalidad en cohortes

Ten-Year Probabilities of Death Due to Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed in North-Eastern Spain

Mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), second tumours, and other causes is of clinical interest in the long-term follow-up of breast cancer (BC) patients. Using a cohort of BC patients (N = 6758) from the cancer registries of Girona and Tarragona (north-eastern Spain), we studied the 10-year probabilities of death due to BC, other cancers, and CVD according to stage at diagnosis and hormone receptor (HR) status. Among the non-BC causes of death (N = 720), CVD (N = 218) surpassed other cancers (N = 196). The BC cohort presented a significantly higher risk of death due to endometrial and ovarian cancers than the general population. In Stage I, HR- patients showed a 1.72-fold higher probability of all-cause death and a 6.11-fold higher probability of breast cancer death than HR+ patients. In Stages II-III, the probability of CVD death (range 3.11% to 3.86%) surpassed that of other cancers (range 0.54% to 3.11%). In Stage IV patients, the probability of death from any cancer drove the mortality risk. Promoting screening and preventive measures in BC patients are warranted, since long-term control should encompass early detection of second neoplasms, ruling out the possibility of late recurrence. In patients diagnosed in Stages II-III at an older age, surveillance for preventing late cardiotoxicity is crucial

Using population-based data to evaluate the impact of adherence to endocrine therapy on survival in breast cancer through the web-application BreCanSurvPred

We show how the use and interpretation of population-based cancer survival indicators can help oncologists talk with breast cancer (BC) patients about the relationship between their prognosis and their adherence to endocrine therapy (ET). The study population comprised a population-based cohort of estrogen receptor positive BC patients (N = 1268) diagnosed in Girona and Tarragona (Northeastern Spain) and classified according to HER2 status (+ / -), stage at diagnosis (I/II/III) and five-year cumulative adherence rate (adherent > 80%; non-adherent <= 80%). Cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival, whereas relative survival (RS) was used to estimate the crude probability of death due to BC (PBC). Stage and adherence to ET were the significant factors for predicting all-cause mortality. Compared to stage I, risk of death increased in stage II (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.51-3.30) and stage III (HR 5.11, 95% CI 3.46-7.51), and it decreased with adherence to ET (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.41-0.59). PBC differences were higher in non-adherent patients compared to adherent ones and increased across stages: stage I: 6.61% (95% CI 0.05-13.20); stage II: 9.77% (95% CI 0.59-19.01), and stage III: 22.31% (95% CI 6.34-38.45). The age-adjusted survival curves derived from this modeling were implemented in the web application BreCanSurvPred (https://pdocomputation.snpstats.net/BreCanSurvPred). Web applications like BreCanSurvPred can help oncologists discuss the consequences of non-adherence to prescribed ET with patients