Com uma lupa e um binóculo: uma investigação sobre a inadimplência de um banco de desenvolvimento através de análise de sobrevivência

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Sócio-Econômico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Florianópolis, 2016.O objetivo desse trabalho foi investigar os condicionantes da inadimplência de um banco de desenvolvimento, através da Análise de Sobrevivência. Em virtude da disponibilidade dos dados dessa instituição, que atua na Região Sul do Brasil, bem como às suas peculiaridades no mercado de crédito e sua relevância para a região, tomou-se-a como objeto de estudo. A Análise de Sobrevivência foi empregada em função de sua capacidade de incorporar o tempo à análise de risco de inadimplência, além de ser uma técnica relativamente recente em estudos como esse. A partir da literatura consultada sobre crédito de longo prazo, bancos de desenvolvimento, risco de crédito e análise de sobrevivência, constituiu-se 3 modelos e 3 ensaios, a partir de 11.251 observações entre outubro de 2013 e abril de 2015. Os modelos estimados foram o Exponencial, o Weibull e o Cox, apresentando resultados favoráveis quanto à significância. No principal ensaio, o ensaio 1, as variáveis explicativas significantes e que colaboraram para a redução da probabilidade de falha foram: pertencer à agência 1; pertencer à agência 2; o aumento dos juros do contrato; ser um pequeno produtor rural; provir da região metropolitana de Porto Alegre; provir da região Nordeste e Noroeste do Rio Grande do Sul; o aumento do PIB; o aumento do índice de emprego; o aumento da TJLP; o aumento das expectativas de inflação e aumento da desvalorização cambial. Colaborando para o aumento da probabilidade de inadimplência estavam: provir do Oeste de Santa Catarina e provir do Oeste e do Centro paranaense. No teste de razão de verossimilhança, verificou-se que os modelos irrestritos tiveram um desempenho superior comparado aos modelos restritos. Isso indica que para a investigação proposta, tanto variáveis macroeconômicas como microeconômicas colaboraram no diagnóstico da inadimplência desse banco. Propõe-se para um próximo trabalho que ferramentas de seleção de variáveis sejam aplicadas, como o método Stepwise, assim como o diagnóstico evolua para um problema de Credit Scoring.Abstract : Investigating the determinants of default of a development bank, through Survival Analysis was the aim of this study. Because of the availability of data in this institution, which operates in southern Brazil, as well as its peculiarities in the credit market and its relevance to the region, it took up it as an object of study. Survival analysis was used because of its ability to embody time to the analysis of default risk as well as being a relatively new technique in studies like this. From the literature revisited on long-term credit, development banks, credit risk and survival analysis, it had run up 3 models and 3 essays, from 11.251 observations between October 2013 and April 2015. The estimated models were the Exponential, Weibull and Cox, with favorable results in terms of significance. In the main essay, or essay 1, the significant covariates and that helped to reduce the probability of failure were: belonging to the agency 1; belonging to the agency 2; the rise in contract interest; being a small farmer; come from the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre; come from the Northeast and North West Rio Grande do Sul state region ; GDP growth; increasing the employment rate; the increase in TJLP; the increase in inflation expectations and an increase in currency devaluation. Collaborating with the increase in the default probability were: come from the West of Santa Catarina state and come from the West and Center of the Paraná state. In the likelihood ratio test, it was found that the unrestricted models have higher performance compared to the restricted models. This indicates that for the proposed research, both macroeconomic and microeconomic variables cooperated with the diagnosis of the default. It is proposed for further studies the application of covariate selection, as the Stepwise method, as well as the evolving of this diagnosis to a problem of credit scoring

Thigh-length compression stockings and DVT after stroke

Controversy exists as to whether neoadjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in patients with invasive bladder cancer, despite randomised controlled trials of more than 3000 patients. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of such treatment on survival in patients with this disease

Azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatory actions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once per day by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatment groups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment and were twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants and local study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to the outcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) were eligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was 65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomly allocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall, 561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median 10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days (rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, no significant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24). Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restricted to patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication. Funding UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research