PERAMALAN PERGERAKAN INFLASI DI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

The economic growth of a nation is strongly influenced by inflation. Inflation is the continuous soaring price of goods or services. This study aims to predict the movement of inflation that will occur in East Java from January 2021 to December 2021. This study uses 48 data from the East Java Province inflation rate data from January 2017 to December 2020 sourced from the official website of BPS East Java. Predictions using the triple exponential smoothing method with forecasting evaluation using MAPE. Based on the analysis results, the parameters used are ⺠= 0,01, β = 0,09 dan γ = 0,30 which produces a MAPE value of 1.619%, which is classified as very good. The results show that the inflation forecasting from January 2021 to December 2021 is estimated at -0.13 to 0.48, with an average of 0.087. Thus, the movement of inflation in East Java from January 2021 to December 2021 is classified as low inflation, so it shows that prices and services are still stable

OPTIMIZATION OF TUG SERVICES IN TANJUNG PERAK PORT USING ASSIGNMENT MODEL BASED ON FORECASTING RESULTS OF TUG SERVICES

Optimizing adequate tugboat services is very much needed to support the operational improvement of the Tanjung Perak port. This study uses the triple exponential smoothing method to predict the number of tug service requests in 2021 and the assignment model to determine the optimal level of operating tugboats. The data used in this study is data on demand for tugboat services for small, medium, and large vessels from 2019 to 2020. Forecasting results show that the highest demand for small boat services is 4551 and 3235. The highest demand for medium vessel services is 479 and the lowest is 365. Meanwhile, for the highest demand for large ship services 61 and the lowest 40. The assignment results show the optimization of Tanjung Perak port by operating 13 tugboats every day