Risk and return of open-end real estate funds : the German case

Open-end real estate funds (so called “Offene Immobilienfonds”) play a major role in the German market for securitised real estate investments. Such funds are pools of money from many investors, which are invested in real estate by special investment management companies. This study seeks to identify the risk and return profile of this investment vehicle (before and after income taxes), to compare them with those of other major asset classes, and to provide implications for their appropriate role in a mixed-asset portfolio. Addition-ally, an overview of the institutional architecture and role of German open-end real estate funds is given. Empirical evidence suggests that the financial characteristics of open-end real estate funds are in many respects similar to those reported for direct real estate invest-ments. Accordingly, German open-end real estate funds qualify for medium and long-term investment horizons, rather than for shorter holding periods

Optimal Portfolio Choice in Retirement with Participating Life Annuities

This paper derives optimal consumption, investment, and annuitization patterns for retired households that have access to German-style participating payout life annuities (PLAs), allowing for capital market risks as well as idiosyncratic and systematic longevity risks. PLAs provide guaranteed minimum benefits in combination with participation in insurers’ surpluses. Minimum benefits are calculated based on conservative assumptions regarding capital market and mortality developments, while surpluses distributed to annuitants bridge the gap between the insurers’ actual investment and mortality experiences and the projections used in pricing. Through the participation scheme, systematic longevity risk is shared between insurers and annuitants, as unanticipated longevity shocks result in benefit adjustments via the surplus mechanism. We show that the retiree draws substantial utility from access to PLAs, equivalent to 20% of initial wealth in the presence of systematic longevity risk. We also find that stochasticity in mortality rates only has minor impact on the appeal of PLAs to the retiree. Even if the interest rate guarantee is reduced to zero in adverse capital market environments, PLAs prove to provide substantial utility for retirees. Overall, the participating life annuity design produces substantial welfare gains over a no-annuity world, while being an efficient setup that helps providers to hedge long-term risks that are difficult to hedge otherwise, such as systematic longevity risks

The victory of hope over Angst? : Funding, asset allocation, and risk-taking in german public sector pension reform

Public employee pension systems throughout the developed world have traditionally been of the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) defined benefit (DB) variety, where pensioner payments are financed by taxes (contributions) levied on the working generation. But as the number of retirees rises relative to the working-age group, such systems have begun to face financial distress. This trend has been exacerbated in many countries, among them Germany, by high unemployment rates producing further deterioration of the contribution base. In the long run, public sector pension benefits will have to be cut or contributions increased, if the systems are to be maintained. An alternative path sometimes offered to ease the crunch of paying for public employee pensions is to move toward funding: here, plan assets are gradually built up, invested, and enhanced returns devoted to partly defray civil servants’ pension costs. In this study, we evaluate the impact of introducing partial prefunding, paired with a strategic investment policy for the German federal state of Hesse. The analysis assesses the impact of introducing a supplementary tax-sponsored pension fund whose contributions are invested in the capital market and used to relieve the state budget from (some) pension payments. Our model determines the expectation and the Conditional Value-at-Risk of economic pension costs using a stochastic simulation process for pension plan assets. This approach simultaneously determines the optimal contribution rate and asset allocation that controls the expected economic costs of providing the promised pensions, while at the same time controlling investment risk. Specifically, we offer answers to the following questions: 1. How can the plan be designed to control cash-flow shortfall risk, so as to mitigate the potential burden borne by future generations of taxpayers? 2. What is the optimal asset allocation for this fund as it is built up, to generate a maximum return while simultaneously restricting capital market and liability risk? 3. What are reasonable combinations of annual contribution rates and asset allocation to a state-managed pension fund, which will limit costs of providing promised public sector pensions? We anticipate that this research will interest several sorts of policymaker groups. First, focusing on the German case, the state and Federal governments should find it relevant, as these entities face considerable public sector pension liabilities. Second, our findings will also be of interest to other European countries, as most have substantial underfunded defined benefit plans for civil servants. In what follows, we first offer a brief description of the structure of civil servant pensions in Germany, focusing on their benefit formulas, their financing, and the resulting current as well as future plan obligations for taxpayers. Next, we turn to an analysis of the actuarial status of the Hesse civil servants’ pension plan and evaluate how much would have to be contributed to fund this plan in a nonstochastic context. Subsequently we evaluate the asset-liability and decision-making process from the viewpoint of the plan sponsor, to determine sensible plan asset allocation behavior. A final section summarizes findings and implications.Wie in vielen anderen Ländern auch, beruhen die deutschen Beamtenpensionen traditionell auf einem umlage- und steuerfinanzierten System der Leistungszusage (defined benefit pension – DB). Aufgrund fehlender Rücklagen resultieren aus den Pensionsverspechen ungedeckte Verbindlichkeiten in Milliardenhöhe, die als solche jedoch nicht offiziell als Staatsverschuldung ausgewiesen werden. Das damit einhergehende Problem steigender Belastungen zukünftiger Haushalte wurde von der Politik erkannt, und erste Schritte in Richtung Kapitaldeckung wurden mit der Einführung der Versorgungsrücklagen sowie der Finanzierungsfonds vollzogen. Vor diesem Hintergrund evaluiert diese Studie die Chancen und Risiken, die mit dem Übergang zu einem (partiell) kapitalgedeckten Beamtenpensionssystems verbunden sind. Als Datengrundlage dient hierzu die vollständige Personalstandsstatistik des Landes Hessen, dessen Beamtenpopulation repräsentativ für den größten Teil des deutschen Beamtensystems ist. Unter Verwendung eigens für diese Studie berechneter Beamtensterbetafeln werden zunächst die Pensionsansprüche der aktuellen Pensionäre sowie die bereits erdienten Anwartschaften der aktuell diensttuenden Beamten aktuariell bewertet. Auf Grundlage einer 50-Jahres-Prognose der Beamtenpopulationsentwicklung werden die zur Finanzierung der Pensionsversprechen benötigten Beiträge, d.h. der Beitragssatz in Bezug auf die Beamtengehälter, deterministisch bestimmt. Im Rahmen einer Monte Carlo-Studie und auf Basis eines stochastischen Barwert-Ansatzes wird sodann die Anlagestrategie für das Planvermögen bestimmt, die zu minimalem Crash-Risiko, gemessen als Conditional Value at Risk der gesamten Pensionskosten, führt. Abschließend wird aufgezeigt, welchen Freiraum der Pensionsplanmanager hinsichtlich der Wahl von Beitragssatz und Anlagestrategie hat, wenn er nur auf Einhaltung eines vorgegebenen Risikobudgets verpflichtet wurde

Optimal Investment Policies for Hybrid Pension Plans - Analyzing the Perspective of Sponsors and Members

This paper analyzes investment strategies in the context of alternative hybrid pension plans which are optimal either from the perspective of the plan sponsor or the beneficiaries. The focus is in particular on how the introduction of minimum and maximum limits for pension benefits as well as minimum guarantees and caps on the return of the members’ individual investment accounts affect the investment decision. The study finds that portfolio choice of sponsor and beneficiaries shows substantial differences depending on the exact plan design and the beneficiaries’ risk aversion. The introduction of caps on investment returns emerged a possible means to reduce such differences and to share investment risks and returns more equally between sponsor and beneficiaries.

Reforming German Civil Servant Pensions: Funding Policy, Investment Strategy, and Intertemporal Risk Budgeting

We analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for civil servants in Germany, allowing for alternative portfolio mixes using a Monte Carlo framework and a Conditional Value at Risk metric. First, we estimate contributions as a percent of salary that would fully fund future benefit promises for active employees. Second, we identify an investment strategy for plan assets that will minimize worst-case pension costs; this turns out to be 22% in equities, 47% in bonds, and 30% in real estate. Third, we explore the time path of pension fund asset shortfalls and the chances of contribution holidays for current and future generations. We show that moving toward a funded pension system for German civil servants can be beneficial to both taxpayers and civil servants

Participating Payout Life Annuities: Lessons from Germany

This paper analyzes the regulatory framework of German immediate participating payout life annuities (PLAs), which offer guaranteed minimum benefits as well as participation in insurers’ surpluses. Our particular focus lies on the mechanics of sharing surpluses between shareholders and policyholders. We show that the process of surplus determination, allocation, and distribution mostly follows transparent and clear rules, and that an insurance company’s management has limited leeway with respect to discretionary decision making. Subsequently, we develop an Asset Liability Model for a German life insurer that offers PLAs. Based on this model, we run Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate benefit variability and insurer stability under stochastic mortality and capital market developments. Our results suggest that through PLAs guaranteed benefits can be provided with high credibility, while, at the same time, annuitants receive attractive Money’s Worth Ratios. Moreover, we show that it might be difficult to offer a fixed benefit annuity providing the same lifetime utility as a PLA for the same premium and a comparably low insolvency risk. Overall, participating life annuity schemes may be an efficient way to deal with risk factors that are highly unpredictable and difficult to hedge over the long run, such as systematic mortality and investment risks

Managing Contribution and Capital Market Risk in a Funded Public Defined Benefit Plan: Impact of CVaR Cost Constraints

Using a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager’s objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers

The Effect of Uncertain Labor Income and Social Security on Life-cycle Portfolios

This paper examines how labor income volatility and social security benefits influence life-cycle household portfolios. We examine how much the individual saves, and where, taking into account liquid financial wealth and annuities, and stocks versus bonds. Higher labor income uncertainty and lower old-age benefits boost demand for stable income in retirement, but also when young. In addition, a declining equity glide path with age is appropriate for the worker with low income uncertainty but for the high income risk worker, equity exposure rises until retirement. We also evaluate how changes in social security benefits influence retirement risk management

Reforming the German Civil Servant Pension Plan

We analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for civil servants in Germany, allowing for alternative portfolio mixes using a Monte Carlo framework and a Conditional Value at Risk metric. First, we estimate contributions as a percent of salary that would fully fund future benefit promises for active employees. Second, we identify an investment strategy for plan assets that will minimize worst-case pension costs; this turns out to be 22% in equities, 47% in bonds, and 30% in real estate. Third, we explore the time path of pension fund asset shortfalls and the chances of contribution holidays for current and future generations. We show that moving toward a funded pension system for German civil servants can be beneficial to both taxpayers and civil servants

Managing Contribution and Capital Market Risk in a Funded Public Defined Benefit Plan: Impact of CVaR Cost Constraints

Using a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager's objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers.