The effect of aggregation on the magnitude of behavioral heterogeneity.

Recent literature has shown that the magnitude of behavioral heterogeneity of a population has an impact on the structure of mean demand. This paper investigates the effect of aggregation on the magnitude of behavioral heterogeneity if we aggregate disjoint subpopulations. Using the Hildenbrand and Kneip (1999) framework of behavioral heterogeneity, we show: (i) aggregation cannot decrease the degree of behavioral heterogeneity (ii) conditions under which aggregation increases the degree of behavioral heterogeneity are derived (iii) aggregation weakly increases the degree of behavioral heterogeneity.

New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany

This paper analyzes changes in the risk of unemployment and changes in the distribution of unemployment duration for the 26 to 41 years old working population in West-Germany during the 1980ties and 1990ties. The comprehensive IAB employment subsample 1975- 1997 is used for the analysis. It contains employment and unemployment trajectories of about 500.000 individuals from West-Germany. The application of flexible nonparametric estimators yields results which are less sensitive to misspecification as it is often the case for parametric hazard rate models. By conditioning on several observable variables such gender, education, marital status etc. we identify significant differences in the first three quintiles of the distribution of the length of unemployment duration. A large share of long term unemployment with only few exits to employment is observed in almost any of the segments. The analysis also considers general evolutions over time and variations along the business cycle. The paper therefore provides a collection of detailed stylized facts about the distribution of unemployment durations in West-Germany during the past two decades. --risk of unemployment,duration of unemployment,German register data,nonparametric analysis

Semiparametric Estimation of Consumption Based Equivalence Scales: The Case of Germany

Consumption based equivalence scales are estimated by applying the extended partially linear model (EPLM) to the 1998 Income and Consumption Survey (EVS) of Germany. The chosen flexible semiparametric specification is able to capture a large variety of functional forms of household expenditure shares; it yields root-N-consistent parameter estimates and is consistent with consumer theory. The model specification seems to be appropriate for many demographic groups of the survey population. The estimated equivalence scales are mostly lower than the expert equivalence scales of the German social benefits system and the OECD scales. The large standard errors of the estimates indicate that there is still unexplained noise in the data even after constructing homogenous data segments for the estimations. --semiparametric estimation,wild bootstrapping,equivalence scales,social benefits

Unemployment durations in West-Germany before and after the reform of the unemployment compensation system during the 1980s

This paper analyzes empirically the distribution of unemployment durations in West- Germany before and after the changes during the mid 1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for elderly unemployed. The analysis is based on the comprehensive IAB employment subsample containing register panel data for about 500.000 individuals in West Germany. We analyze two proxies for unemployment since the data do not precisely measure unemployment in an economic sense. We provide a theoretical analysis of the link between the durations of nonemployment and of unemployment between jobs. Our empirical analysis finds significant changes in the distributions of nonemployment durations for older unemployed individuals. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs did not change in response to the reforms. Our findings are consistent with an interpretation that many firms and workers used the more bene cial laws as a part of early retirement packages but those workers who were still looking for a job did not reduce their search effort in response to the extension of the maximum entitlement periods. This interpretation is consistent with our theoretical model under plausible assumptions. JEL: C24, J64, J6

Job seeker's allowance in Great Britain: How does the regional labour market affect the duration until job finding?

Employing a large individual-level administrative dataset from Great Britain, covering the period 1999-2007, we analyse the factors influencing the length of unemployment benefits claimant periods with subsequent transition to re-employment. To this end, this individual-level data is merged with a group of regional indicators to control for relevant regional labour market characteristics. From a methodological point of view, we adopt a flexible censored quantile regression approach to estimating conditional re-employment hazards. Our results indicate that the individual characteristics of an unemployed person are generally more im- portant than the regional labour market conditions. However, regional labour supply and demand conditions are important determinants for the length of unemployment compensation claim periods. Our analysis provides evidence that large cities such as London and Birmingham provide the worse local labour market conditions for job seekers allowance recipients, while remote regions like the Shetland islands perform among the best.benefit duration, quantile regression, hazard rate.

Can public employment subsidies render the German construction sector weather proof?

In order to confine excessive levels of temporary layoffs, US firms are taxed - albeit incompletely - according to the unemployment insurance benefits claimed by their laid off workers. In contrast, German construction firms are not charged according to their layoff history and should thus have much higher layoff incentives. However, in case of a weather-induced shortfall of work, a firm's workforce is eligible for a partial subsidy to their employment costs. The level of this subsidy was subject to several reforms throughout the 1990s which provides a unique opportunity for examining the empirical link between layoff incentives and layoff rates. Our analysis is based on large individual administrative data merged with information about local weather conditions and the business cycle. We observe economically plausible effects: the higher the subsidy to employment costs, the less layoffs occur and the less weather-dependent is employment.panel data, temporary layoffs, employment stability

Map Intersection Based Merging Schemes for Administrative Data Sources and an Application to Germany

In many situations the applied researcher wants to combine different data sources without knowing the exact link and merging rule. This paper introduces a theoretical framework how two different regional administrative data sources can be merged. It presents different merging schemes based on the area size of intersections between both regional entities. Estimates of intersection areas are derived from a digital map intersection. The theoretical framework derives conditions for the unbiasedness of estimated intersections and merging rules. The paper also presents conditions under which the choice of merging rule does not matter and illustrates the theoretical results with a simulation study. An application to German counties and federal employment office districts illustrates the applicability of the approach. It delivers merging schemes for regional data sources of the federal German statistical office and of the federal German employment office. --map intersection,administrative data,merging schemes,estimation

Unemployment Durations in West-Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System During the 1980s

This paper empirically analyzes the distribution of unemployment durations in West- Germany before and after the changes during the mid 1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for elderly unemployed. The analysis is based on the comprehensive IAB employment subsample containing register panel data for about 500.000 individuals in West Germany. We introduce two proxies for unemployment, since the data do not involve a precise economic definition of unemployment. We provide a theoretical analysis of the link between the durations of nonemployment and of unemployment durations between jobs. In our empirical analysis we find significant changes in the distributions of nonemployment durations for older unemployed individuals. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs did not change in response to the reforms. Our findings are consistent with an interpretation that many firms and workers used the more beneficial laws as a part of early retirement packages but those workers who were still looking for a job did not reduce their search effort in response to the extension of the maximum entitlement periods. This interpretation is consistent with a simulation of our theoretical model under economically plausible assumptions. --definition of unemployment,duration analysis,unemployment insurance

Unemployment duration in Germany: individual and regional determinants of local job finding, migration and subsidized employment

Recent labor market reforms in Germany aim, among other things, at reducing unemployment by restricting passive unemployment measures, emphasizing local labor market policies and re-structuring public employment services. This paper uses extensive individual administrative and regional aggregate data to explore the extent to which these factors are likely to contribute to the shortening of unemployment duration. For this purpose, we estimate a semi-parametric duration model with three competing exit states. Our results suggest that changes in the unemployment compensation system rather than local employment policies and administrative restructuring efforts meet expected labor market outcomes. In addition, determinants of the length of unemployment vary across exit states. --competing-risk,labor market policy,individual and regional data

Area interpolation in presence of measurement error and an application to German administrative data

"In many situations the applied researcher wants to combine different data sources without knowing the exact link and merging rule. This paper considers different interpolation methods for interpolating attributes from German labor office districts to German counties and vice versa. In particular, we apply dasymetric weighting as an alternative to simple area weighting both of which are based on estimated intersection areas. Since these estimates can be spurious, our theoretical framework extends the well-known Goodchild and Lam (1980) approach to the presence of measurement error in the underlying maps. We also present conditions under which the choice of interpolation method does not matter and confirm the theoretical results with a simulation study. Our application to German administrative data suggests robustness of estimation results of interpolated attributes with respect to the choice of interpolation method. We deliver weighting matrices for regional data sources of the two largest German data producers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Anlage zum FDZ-Methodenreport Nr. 01/2006: Stata-Dateien mit den Gewichten: Gewichte.zipprozessproduzierte Daten, Statistisches Bundesamt, Landkreis, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Arbeitsagenturbezirke, Datenqualität, Datenverarbeitung, Regionalgliederung, Kartierung, regionaler Vergleich, IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe, Wirtschaftsforschung, Arbeitsmarktforschung