Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Managing future air quality in megacities: Co-benefit assessment for Delhi

Urbanization, population and economic growth in Indian megacities like Delhi have resulted in an increase in energy and transportation demand leading to severe air pollution and related health impacts, as well as to the rapid growth in the greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, an integrated assessment of air quality and climate policies for Indian cities – with a particular focus on National Capital Territory of Delhi, has been carried out. We have developed emission inventory of air pollutants and greenhouse gases for the base year (2010) and evaluated the impact of current policies on emission projections by 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario. Emissions of coarse and fine particulate matter are projected to be 51% and 15% higher in 2030 as compared to present. As the current legislations do not indicate progress towards the achievement of the Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standards in Delhi, we explored the effectiveness of additional emission control strategies with either advanced end-of-pipe emission controls or low carbon policies. Relative to the baseline scenario, the set of alternative policy strategies would reduce emissions rapidly in 2030. The results revealed that air quality policies under various scenarios could also have co-benefits of reducing carbon emissions. At the same time, the results suggest that low carbon policies would be more efficient to cut emissions as compared to advanced end-of-pipe emission control policies. However, their implementation could be limited by the availability of clean fuels. In the climate policy scenario, carbon emission in 2030 is estimated to decrease by 19% relative to baseline. Additional controls combined with low carbon policies like controlling non-industrial emissions create an opportunity to further enhance the scope for co-benefits and to attain the air quality standards in Delhi

Sperm morphology assessment in the era of intracytoplasmic sperm injection: Reliable results require focus on standardization, quality control, and training

Semen analysis is the first, and frequently, the only step in the evaluation of male fertility. Although the laboratory procedures are conducted according to the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, semen analysis and especially sperm morphology assessment is very difficult to standardize and obtain reproducible results. This is mainly due to the highly subjective nature of their evaluation. ICSI is the choice of treatment when sperm morphology is severely abnormal (teratozoospermic). Hence, the standardization of laboratory protocols for sperm morphology evaluation represents a fundamental step to ensure reliable, accurate and consistent laboratory results that avoid misdiagnoses and inadequate treatment of the infertile patient. This article aims to promote standardized laboratory procedures for an accurate evaluation of sperm morphology, including the establishment of quality control and quality assurance policies. Additionally, the clinical importance of sperm morphology results in assisted reproductive outcomes is discussed, along with the clinical management of teratozoospermic patients

Relevance of leukocytospermia and semen culture and its true place in diagnosing and treating male infertility

The current WHO 2010 manual for human semen analysis defines leukocytospermia as the presence of peroxidase-positive leukocytes at a concentration >1×106 /mL of semen. Granular leukocytes when activated are capable of generating high levels of reactive oxygen species in semen resulting in oxidative stress. Oxidative stress has been correlated with poor sperm quality, increased level of sperm DNA fragmentation and low fertility potential. The presence of leukocytes and pathogens in the semen may be a sign of infection and/or localized inflammatory response in the male genital tract and the accessory glands. Common uro-pathogens including Chlamydia trachomatis, Ureaplasma urealyticum, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Mycoplasma hominis, and Escherichia coli can cause epididymitis, epididymo-orchitis, or prostatitis. The relationship between leukocytospermia and infection is unclear. Therefore, we describe the pathogens responsible for male genital tract infections and their association with leukocytospermia. The review also examines the diagnostic tests available to identify seminal leukocytes. The role of leukocytospermia in male infertility and its management is also discussed

A comprehensive guide to sperm recovery in infertile men with retrograde ejaculation

International audienceRetrograde ejaculation (RE) is a condition defined as the backward flow of the semen during ejaculation, and when present can result in male infertility. RE may be partial or complete, resulting in either low seminal volume or complete absence of the ejaculate (dry ejaculate). RE can result from anatomic, neurological or pharmacological conditions. The treatment approaches outlined are determined by the cause. Alkalinizing urinary pH with oral medications or by adding sperm wash media into the bladder prior to ejaculation may preserve the viability of the sperm. This article provides a step-by-step guide to diagnose RE and the optimal techniques to retrieve sperm. Copyrigh

Sperm Morphology Assessment in the Era of Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection: Reliable Results Require Focus on Standardization, Quality Control, and Training

Semen analysis is the first, and frequently, the only step in the evaluation of male fertility. Although the laboratory procedures are conducted according to the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, semen analysis and especially sperm morphology assessment is very difficult to standardize and obtain reproducible results. This is mainly due to the highly subjective nature of their evaluation. ICSI is the choice of treatment when sperm morphology is severely abnormal (teratozoospermic). Hence, the standardization of laboratory protocols for sperm morphology evaluation represents a fundamental step to ensure reliable, accurate and consistent laboratory results that avoid misdiagnoses and inadequate treatment of the infertile patient. This article aims to promote standardized laboratory procedures for an accurate evaluation of sperm morphology, including the establishment of quality control and quality assurance policies. Additionally, the clinical importance of sperm morphology results in assisted reproductive outcomes is discussed, along with the clinical management of teratozoospermic patients

Relevance of Leukocytospermia and Semen Culture and Its True Place in Diagnosing and Treating Male Infertility

The current WHO 2010 manual for human semen analysis defines leukocytospermia as the presence of peroxidase-positive leukocytes at a concentration >1x10(6)/mL of semen. Granular leukocytes when activated are capable of generating high levels of reactive oxygen species in semen resulting in oxidative stress. Oxidative stress has been correlated with poor sperm quality, increased level of sperm DNA fragmentation and low fertility potential. The presence of leukocytes and pathogens in the semen may be a sign of infection and/or localized inflammatory response in the male genital tract and the accessory glands. Common uro-pathogens including Chlamydia trachomatis, Ureaplasma urealyticum, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Mycoplasma hominis, and Escherichia coli can cause epididymitis, epididymo-orchitis, or prostatitis. The relationship between leukocytospermia and infection is unclear. Therefore, we describe the pathogens responsible for male genital tract infections and their association with leukocytospermia. The review also examines the diagnostic tests available to identify seminal leukocytes. The role of leukocytospermia in male infertility and its management is also discussed

Antisperm antibody testing: A comprehensive review of its role in the management of immunological male infertility and results of a global survey of clinical practices

Antisperm antibodies (ASA), as a cause of male infertility, have been detected in infertile males as early as 1954. Multiple causes of ASA production have been identified, and they are due to an abnormal exposure of mature germ cells to the immune system. ASA testing (with mixed anti-globulin reaction, and immunobead binding test) was described in the WHO manual 5th edition and is most recently listed among the extended semen tests in the WHO manual 6th edition. The relationship between ASA and infertility is somewhat complex. The presence of sperm agglutination, while insufficient to diagnose immunological infertility, may indicate the presence of ASA. However, ASA can also be present in the absence of any sperm agglutination. The andrological management of ASA depends on the etiology and individual practices of clinicians. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of the causes of ASA production, its role in immunological male infertility, clinical indications of ASA testing, and the available therapeutic options. We also provide the details of laboratory procedures for assessment of ASA together with important measures for quality control. Additionally, laboratory and clinical scenarios are presented to guide the reader in the management of ASA and immunological male infertility. Furthermore, we report the results of a recent worldwide survey, conducted to gather information about clinical practices in the management of immunological male infertility

Management of coronary disease in patients with advanced kidney disease

BACKGROUND Clinical trials that have assessed the effect of revascularization in patients with stable coronary disease have routinely excluded those with advanced chronic kidney disease. METHODS We randomly assigned 777 patients with advanced kidney disease and moderate or severe ischemia on stress testing to be treated with an initial invasive strategy consisting of coronary angiography and revascularization (if appropriate) added to medical therapy or an initial conservative strategy consisting of medical therapy alone and angiography reserved for those in whom medical therapy had failed. The primary outcome was a composite of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. A key secondary outcome was a composite of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. RESULTS At a median follow-up of 2.2 years, a primary outcome event had occurred in 123 patients in the invasive-strategy group and in 129 patients in the conservative-strategy group (estimated 3-year event rate, 36.4% vs. 36.7%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79 to 1.29; P=0.95). Results for the key secondary outcome were similar (38.5% vs. 39.7%; hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.29). The invasive strategy was associated with a higher incidence of stroke than the conservative strategy (hazard ratio, 3.76; 95% CI, 1.52 to 9.32; P=0.004) and with a higher incidence of death or initiation of dialysis (hazard ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.11; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS Among patients with stable coronary disease, advanced chronic kidney disease, and moderate or severe ischemia, we did not find evidence that an initial invasive strategy, as compared with an initial conservative strategy, reduced the risk of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction