Instability in Andhra Pradesh Agriculture — A Disaggregate Analysis

Instability in farm production is causing serious shocks to supply and farm income and there is a growing concern about increased volatility in farm production, prices and farm income. The study has estimated instability in three major crops before (1981-93) and after (1993-04) the initiation of economic reforms at the state and district levels in Andhra Pradesh. It has revealed that in a large state like Andhra Pradesh, and which is the case for most states of India, the instability status as perceived through the state level data may be vastly different from that experienced at the disaggregate level. The study has concluded that the state level analysis does not reflect complete picture of shocks in agriculture production, and, further, shocks in production underestimates shocks in farm income. It has suggested the need for addressing risks in farm income by devising area-specific crop insurance or other suitable mechanisms.Farm Management,

A Study on the Performance of National Agricultural Insurance Scheme and Suggestions to Make it More Effective

Agricultural production and farm income in India involve several risks. Crop insurance is the only mechanism available to safeguard against production risks. Against this background, this paper has examined the features and performance of National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) operating in the country and has suggested some modifications to make it more effective. NAIS coverage in terms of crop area, number of farmers and value of agricultural output is very small. If crop insurance programme is to be made an important tool in agricultural risk management, the present level of coverage will have to be improved, at least by 3-4 fold. Such an expansion can occur only with improvements in and broad-basing of the insurance scheme. Every suggested improvement has financial implications and affect the concerned insurance practices. It requires renewed efforts by the government in terms of designing appropriate mechanisms and providing financial support to agricultural insurance. Providing of similar support to the private sector insurers would help in increasing the insurance coverage and improving the viability of insurance schemes over time. The study has also suggested that different general insurance companies in the country may be assigned some reasonable targets to cover agricultural insurance, and to begin with, it could be equal to the share of agriculture in the national income.Risk and Uncertainty,

Estimation of Demand Elasticity for Food Commodities in India

The food demand in India has been examined in the context of a structural shift in the dietary pattern of its population. The results have reinforced the hypothesis of a significant diversification in the dietary pattern of households in recent years and has found stark differences in the consumption pattern across different income quartiles. The food demand behaviour has been explained using a set of demand elasticities corresponding to major food commodities. The demand elasticities have been estimated using multi-stage budgeting with QUAIDS model and another alternative model, FCDS. The study has revealed that the estimated income elasticities vary across income classes and are lowest for cereals group and highest for horticultural and livestock products. The analysis of price and income effects based on the estimated demand system has suggested that with increase in food price inflation, the demand for staple food (rice, wheat and sugar) may not be affected adversely but, that of high-value food commodities is likely to be affected negatively. Therefore, the study has cautioned that if inflation in food prices remains unabated for an extended period, there is the possibility of reversal of the trend of diversification and that of consumers returning to cereal-dominated diet, thus accentuating under-nourishment.Food demand, Demand elasticity, QUAIDS model, FCDS model, Household food demand, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q11, Q18,

A framework-based wind forecasting to assess wind potential with improved grey wolf optimization and support vector regression

Wind energy is one of the most promising alternates of fossil fuels because of its abundant availability, low cost, and pollution-free attributes. Wind potential estimation, wind forecasting, and effective wind-energy management are the critical factors in planning and managing wind farms connected to wind-pooling substations. Hence, this study proposes a hybrid framework-based approach for wind-resource estimation and forecasting, namely IGWO-SVR (improved grey wolf optimization method (IGWO)-support vector regression (SVR)) for a real-time power pooling substation. The wind resource assessment and behavioral wind analysis has been carried out with the proposed IGWO-SVR optimization method for hourly, daily, monthly, and annual cases using 40 years of ERA (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis) data along with the impact of the El Niño effect. First, wind reassessment is carried out considering the impact of El Niño, wind speed, power, pressure, and temperature of the selected site Radhapuram substation in Tamilnadu, India and reported extensively. In addition, statistical analysis and wind distribution fitting are performed to demonstrate the seasonal effect. Then the proposed model is adopted for wind speed forecasting based on the dataset. From the results, the proposed model offered the best assessment report and predicted the wind behavior with greater accuracy using evaluation metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE). For short-term wind speed, power, and El Niño forecasting, IGWO-SVR optimization effectively outperforms other existing models. This method can be adapted effectively in any potential locations for wind resource assessment and forecasting needs for better renewable energy management by power utilities

An Economic Assessment along the Jatropha-based Biodiesel Value Chain In India

The Government of India had launched the National Biofuel Mission in the year 2003 as an initiative to limit the country’s dependence on crude oil imports. An integral part of this mission is the Biodiesel Blending program and Jatropha, a tree-borne biodiesel yielding crop, is the cornerstone of the program. This study has been specifically designed to carry out economic assessment of the upcoming jatropha-based biodiesel value chain in the country. The study, based on primary data collected from three major jatropha growing states, has observed that jatropha cultivation is an economically viable proposition in the long-run as indicated by favourable values of net present value, internal rate of return and benefit cost ratio. Nevertheless, initial government support till attaining break even point is crucial to sustain the interest of the farmers. The jatropha seed processing industry has been found to be viable if operated at sufficient economies of scale, which in turn is determined by the level of backward integration with the seed market and a forward integration with biodiesel distribution channels. However, the existing biodiesel value chain in India lacks this integration and is characterized by under-developed seed markets, sub-optimal processing infrastructure and ill-defined biodiesel distribution channels. The involvement of corporate players to participate in processing and distribution activities has further delayed the program to take off. The study has cautioned that unless proactive orientation of all the stakeholders is ensured, the program may fail to meet its objectives, at least in the medium-term.Agricultural and Food Policy,