Reproductive ecology of the black rat (Rattus rattus) in Madagascar : the influence of density-dependent and -independent effects

Funding Information: We are grateful to the technical and research staff from the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar and Association Vahatra for fieldwork assistance during this study. K.S. was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) under the EastBio DTP [grant number BB/M010996/1]. This work was also supported by the Wellcome Trust [095171/Z/10/Z]; the Medical Research Council [MR/T029862/1]; and by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (using the UK's Official Development Assistance [ODA] Funding) and Wellcome [219532/Z/19/Z] under the NIHR‐Wellcome Partnership for Global Health Research. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Wellcome, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. For the purpose of Open Access, the authors have applied a CC BY license to any author accepted manuscript version arising. Research Funding Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) under the East-Bio DTP. Grant Number: BB/M010996/1 Wellcome TrustBiotechnology. Grant Number: 095171/Z/10/Z the Medical Research Council. Grant Number: MR/T029862/1 the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) UK’s Official Development Assistance [ODA] Wellcome. Grant Number: 219532/Z/19/ZPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Characterization of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated from patients suspected of pulmonary or bubonic plague during the Madagascar epidemic in 2017

International audienceKlebsiella pneumoniae can lead to a wide range of diseases including pneumonia, bloodstream and urinary tract infections. During a short period of a pulmonary plague epidemic in October 2017 in Madagascar, 12 K . pneumoniae isolates were identified in ten sputum and two buboes aspirate samples. These isolates were from 12 patients suspected of plague, without epidemiological relationships, but were negative for Yersinia pestis in culture. Data were collected from the plague national surveillance system. The isolates were characterized by antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing. Real-time PCR was performed to confirm the presence of K. pneumoniae DNA in buboes. All isolates were identified as K. pneumoniae sensu stricto. Five isolates were extended-spectrum β-lactamases producers; eleven different sequence types were identified. Five isolates belonged to known hypervirulent sequence types. Our results demonstrate community-acquired pneumonia caused by K. pneumoniae isolates in patients suspected of plague stressing the importance of bed-side differential diagnosis

Phylogenetic analysis of the origin and spread of plague in Madagascar

Background Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, highly prevalent in the Central Highlands, a mountainous region in the center of Madagascar. After a plague-free period of over 60 years in the northwestern coast city of Mahajanga, the disease reappeared in 1991 and caused several outbreaks until 1999. Previous research indicates that the disease was reintroduced to the city of Mahajanga from the Central Highlands instead of reemerging from a local reservoir. However, it is not clear how many reintroductions occurred and when they took place. Methodology/Principal findings In this study we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic model to detect and date migrations of Y. pestis between the two locations that could be linked to the re-emergence of plague in Mahajanga. Genome sequences of 300 Y. pestis strains sampled between 1964 and 2012 were analyzed. Four migrations from the Central Highlands to Mahajanga were detected. Two resulted in persistent transmission in humans, one was responsible for most of the human cases recorded between 1995 and 1999, while the other produced plague cases in 1991 and 1992. We dated the emergence of the Y. pestis sub-branch 1.ORI3, which is only present in Madagascar and Turkey, to the beginning of the 20th century, using a Bayesian molecular dating analysis. The split between 1.ORI3 and its ancestor lineage 1.ORI2 was dated to the second half of the 19th century. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that two independent migrations from the Central Highlands caused the plague outbreaks in Mahajanga during the 1990s, with both introductions occurring during the early 1980s. They happened over a decade before the detection of human cases, thus the pathogen likely survived in wild reservoirs until the spillover to humans was possible. This study demonstrates the value of Bayesian phylogenetics in elucidating the re-emergence of infectious diseases

Analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of imperfect diagnostics to inform outbreak response : Application to the 2017 plague epidemic in Madagascar

During outbreaks, the lack of diagnostic "gold standard" can mask the true burden of infection in the population and hamper the allocation of resources required for control. Here, we present an analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of diagnostics when multiple yet imperfect diagnostic tests are available. We apply it to laboratory results of 2,136 samples, analyzed with 3 diagnostic tests (based on up to 7 diagnostic outcomes), collected during the 2017 pneumonic (PP) and bubonic plague (BP) outbreak in Madagascar, which was unprecedented both in the number of notified cases, clinical presentation, and spatial distribution. The extent of these outbreaks has however remained unclear due to nonoptimal assays. Using latent class methods, we estimate that 7% to 15% of notified cases were Yersinia pestis-infected. Overreporting was highest during the peak of the outbreak and lowest in the rural settings endemic to Y. pestis. Molecular biology methods offered the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity. The specificity of the rapid diagnostic test was relatively low (PP: 82%, BP: 85%), particularly for use in contexts with large quantities of misclassified cases. Comparison with data from a subsequent seasonal Y. pestis outbreak in 2018 reveal better test performance (BP: specificity 99%, sensitivity: 91%), indicating that factors related to the response to a large, explosive outbreak may well have affected test performance. We used our framework to optimize the case classification and derive consolidated epidemic trends. Our approach may help reduce uncertainties in other outbreaks where diagnostics are imperfect

Multiple Introductions of Yersinia pestis during Urban Pneumonic Plague Epidemic, Madagascar, 2017

International audiencePneumonic plague (PP) is characterized by high infection rate, person-to-person transmission, and rapid progression to severe disease. In 2017, a PP epidemic occurred in 2 Madagascar urban areas, Antananarivo and Toamasina. We used epidemiologic data and Yersinia pestis genomic characterization to determine the sources of this epidemic. Human plague emerged independently from environmental reservoirs in rural endemic foci >20 times during August-November 2017. Confirmed cases from 5 emergences, including 4 PP cases, were documented in urban areas. Epidemiologic and genetic analyses of cases associated with the first emergence event to reach urban areas confirmed that transmission started in August; spread to Antananarivo, Toamasina, and other locations; and persisted in Antananarivo until at least mid-November. Two other Y. pestis lineages may have caused persistent PP transmission chains in Antananarivo. Multiple Y. pestis lineages were independently introduced to urban areas from several rural foci via travel of infected persons during the epidemic

Epidemiological characteristics of an urban plague epidemic in Madagascar, August–November, 2017: an outbreak report

International audienceBackground: Madagascar accounts for 75% of global plague cases reported to WHO, with an annual incidence of 200-700 suspected cases (mainly bubonic plague). In 2017, a pneumonic plague epidemic of unusual size occurred. The extent of this epidemic provides a unique opportunity to better understand the epidemiology of pneumonic plagues, particularly in urban settings.Methods: Clinically suspected plague cases were notified to the Central Laboratory for Plague at Institut Pasteur de Madagascar (Antananarivo, Madagascar), where biological samples were tested. Based on cases recorded between Aug 1, and Nov 26, 2017, we assessed the epidemiological characteristics of this epidemic. Cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed based on the results of three types of diagnostic tests (rapid diagnostic test, molecular methods, and culture) according to 2006 WHO recommendations.Findings: 2414 clinically suspected plague cases were reported, including 1878 (78%) pneumonic plague cases, 395 (16%) bubonic plague cases, one (<1%) septicaemic case, and 140 (6%) cases with unspecified clinical form. 386 (21%) of 1878 notified pneumonic plague cases were probable and 32 (2%) were confirmed. 73 (18%) of 395 notified bubonic plague cases were probable and 66 (17%) were confirmed. The case fatality ratio was higher among confirmed cases (eight [25%] of 32 cases) than probable (27 [8%] of 360 cases) or suspected pneumonic plague cases (74 [5%] of 1358 cases) and a similar trend was seen for bubonic plague cases (16 [24%] of 66 confirmed cases, four [6%] of 68 probable cases, and six [2%] of 243 suspected cases). 351 (84%) of 418 confirmed or probable pneumonic plague cases were concentrated in Antananarivo, the capital city, and Toamasina, the main seaport. All 50 isolated Yersinia pestis strains were susceptible to the tested antibiotics.Interpretation: This predominantly urban plague epidemic was characterised by a large number of notifications in two major urban areas and an unusually high proportion of pneumonic forms, with only 23% having one or more positive laboratory tests. Lessons about clinical and biological diagnosis, case definition, surveillance, and the logistical management of the response identified in this epidemic are crucial to improve the response to future plague outbreaks