Quickest Change Detection of a Markov Process Across a Sensor Array

Recent attention in quickest change detection in the multi-sensor setting has been on the case where the densities of the observations change at the same instant at all the sensors due to the disruption. In this work, a more general scenario is considered where the change propagates across the sensors, and its propagation can be modeled as a Markov process. A centralized, Bayesian version of this problem, with a fusion center that has perfect information about the observations and a priori knowledge of the statistics of the change process, is considered. The problem of minimizing the average detection delay subject to false alarm constraints is formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Insights into the structure of the optimal stopping rule are presented. In the limiting case of rare disruptions, we show that the structure of the optimal test reduces to thresholding the a posteriori probability of the hypothesis that no change has happened. We establish the asymptotic optimality (in the vanishing false alarm probability regime) of this threshold test under a certain condition on the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence between the post- and the pre-change densities. In the special case of near-instantaneous change propagation across the sensors, this condition reduces to the mild condition that the K-L divergence be positive. Numerical studies show that this low complexity threshold test results in a substantial improvement in performance over naive tests such as a single-sensor test or a test that wrongly assumes that the change propagates instantaneously.Comment: 40 pages, 5 figures, Submitted to IEEE Trans. Inform. Theor

Linear Beamforming for the Spatially Correlated MISO broadcast channel

A spatially correlated broadcast setting with M antennas at the base station and M users (each with a single antenna) is considered. We assume that the users have perfect channel information about their links and the base station has only statistical information about each user's link. The base station employs a linear beamforming strategy with one spatial eigen-mode allocated to each user. The goal of this work is to understand the structure of the beamforming vectors that maximize the ergodic sum-rate achieved by treating interference as noise. In the M = 2 case, we first fix the beamforming vectors and compute the ergodic sum-rate in closed-form as a function of the channel statistics. We then show that the optimal beamforming vectors are the dominant generalized eigenvectors of the covariance matrices of the two links. It is difficult to obtain intuition on the structure of the optimal beamforming vectors for M > 2 due to the complicated nature of the sum-rate expression. Nevertheless, in the case of asymptotic M, we show that the optimal beamforming vectors have to satisfy a set of fixed-point equations.Comment: Published in IEEE ISIT 2010, 5 page

Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups

The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of $d=2$ corresponds to the case where the dynamics are coarsely quantized as Active and Inactive, respectively. A state estimation strategy that exploits the underlying HMM structure is then developed for spurt detection and tracking. This strategy is shown to track even nonpersistent changes that last only for a short duration at the cost of learning the underlying model. Case studies with real terrorism data from open-source databases are provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS682 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org