Generational Accounting - Quo Vadis?

This paper focuses on the problems involved in developing cross-country comparisons of the intergenerational stance of fiscal policy. Of course, these comparisons are nowadays based on the method of generational accounting and in particular most of them rely on comparing the total size of intertemporal public liabilities (IPLs). I first utilize the machinery of generational accounting in order to calculate the composition of the countries` IPLs, that is the sum of explicit and implicit liabilities embedded in the respective fiscal policies for several European countries and the United States. The findings suggest that the ranking in a cross-country comparison is very sensitive to a) the legal settings concerning social transfer adjustment over time, b) the degree to which unreliable or time-inconsistent reforms are taken into account, c) the respective countries` business cycle status in the base-year. The second aim of this paper is to outline recent and future applications of generational accounting.

Internal rates of return of the German statutory long-term care insurance

Presuming an ageing population, every introduction of a pay-as-you-go scheme causes intergenerational redistribution in favor of the first generations and to the burden of young and future generations. Using the concept of internal rates of return we want to examine the extent to which the first generations drew an introductory benefit from the implementation of the German statutory long-term care insurance as an unfunded system. Furthermore, a comparison between the internal rates of return will show firstly to what extent different generations are burdened by having to redeem the implicit debt, and secondly which generations are involved in paying back the introductory gain. --Long-Term Care Insurance,Internal Rate of Return,Demography

How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return

In this paper we analyze exemplarily the volatility of the internal rates of return of the German pension system over the life-cycle of an individual born in 1957. The outcome is compared to an alternative defined-contribution or defined-benefit policy. Based on the actual data, our results show the volatility of the internal rate of return to be significantly higher under the actual policy. We furthermore find that the sustainable internal rates of return are close to zero for the youngest male cohorts and positive for females for optimistic growth scenarios. In more realistic scenarios things turn worse. --Risk,internal rate of return,sustainability

Population Aging and Fiscal Policy in Europe and the United States

In this paper, we compare the total size of intertemporal public liabilities (IPLs) of several European countries and the United States. We utilize the machinery of generational accounting in order to calculate the composition of the countries IPLs, that is the sum of the explicit and implicit liabilities embedded in the respective fiscal policies. The findings suggest that present fiscal policies of all countries with the exception of Ireland have positive intertemporal liabilities and, hence, are unsustainable over the long-term. The study also confirms the claim made by advocates of generational accounting that explicit debt is a poor indicator of long-term fiscal sustainability. Among all EMU participants, those with the highest implicit liabilities report the lowest explicit debt. However, countries with the smallest or negative implicit liabilities have rather high explicit debt levels in the base year of the calculations reported here - 1995.

A fiscal outlook for Poland using generational accounts

During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in the early nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country's fiscal situation. We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long term stability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves special attention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension system shall stabilise in the long term. --Generational Accounting,Fiscal sustainability,Fiscal policy,Poland,Pension reform

Earlier or Later: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Bringing Forward an Already Announced Tax Reform

The German Income Tax Reform 2000, which announced a reduction in income tax rates to be implemented in a series of three stages, was welcomed by the public as a step towards unleashing lurking growth potentials. Nonetheless, in the course of the year 2001 a dispute arose, centering around the question as to whether or not the later stages of the German Income Tax Reform should be brought forward. The present paper assesses the welfare and macroeconomic consequences of the German Income Tax Reform in the scope of a simplified DGE model of the Auerbach-Kotlikoff type and deals explicitly with the issue of bringing forward an already announced tax reform. As well as evaluating the considered fiscal policy options in terms of their (social) welfare implications we also touch on the political economy aspects of implementing a tax reform.German Tax Reform, early tax reform, overlapping generations, DGE model

Social health insurance: The major driver of unsustainable fiscal policy?

During the next decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older as a result of the low level of birth rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. We show within a Generational Accounting framework how unsustainable the public finances of France, Germany, Switzerland and the U.S. are, given their demographic developments. Thereby, our focus lies on social health insurance systems which are in addition affected by the medical-technical progress. Due to the cost-increasing effect of the medical-technical progress one can justifiably say that social health insurance schemes are the major drivers behind unsustainable fiscal policies. --

Rente mit 67 - ein unvermeidbarer Schritt

Ende August hat die „Kommission für die Nachhaltigkeit in der Finanzierung der Sozialen Sicherungssysteme“ („Rürup-Kommission“) der Bundesregierung ihren Bericht vorgelegt. Hierin wird, ebenso wie im Bericht der „Herzog-Kommission“ „Soziale Sicherheit _ zur Reform der sozialen Sicherungssysteme“ für den CDU-Bundesvorstand von Ende September, die in der Öffentlichkeit heftig umstrittene Heraufsetzung des Renteneintrittsalters auf 67 Jahre gefordert. Ist eine „Rente mit 67“ unvermeidbar? --

Mehr Nachhaltigkeit in der Finanzpolitik

Der wissenschaftliche Beirat beim Bundesministerium der Finanzen fordert in seinem jüngsten Gutachten „Nachhaltigkeit in der Finanzpolitik" die Abkehr von einer kurzfristig orientierten Haushaltspolitik und die Hinwendung zu einer nachhaltig angelegten Finanzpolitik. Was ist unter fiskalischer Nachhaltigkeit zu verstehen? Mit welchen Konzepten kann Nachhaltigkeit in der Finanzpolitik überprüft und wie kann sie in der Haushaltsplanung verankert werden? --

Grundsicherung in Deutschland: Analyse und Reformbedarf

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