The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data

Though consumption research provides a broad spectrum of theoretical and empirical founded results, studies based on a daily focus are missing. Knowledge about the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services, opens – beyond a genuine contribution to consumption research – interesting societal and macro economic as well as individual personal and firm perspectives: it is important for an efficient timely coordination of supply and demand in the timing perspective as well as for a targeted economic, social and societal policy for a better support of the every day coordination of life. Last not least, the individual daily public and private living situations will be visible, which are of particular importance for the social togetherness in family and society. Our study contributes to the timing of daily consumption for goods and services with an empirical founded microanalysis on the basis of more than 37.000 individual time use diaries of the nationwide Time Budget Survey of the German Federal Statistical Office 2001/02. We describe the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services for important socio-demographic groups like for women and men, the economic situation with income poverty and daily working hour arrangements. The multivariate microeconometric explanation of the daily demand for goods and services is based on a latent utility maximizing approach over a day. We estimate an eight equation Multivariate/Simultaneous Probit Model, which allows the decision for multiple consumption activities in more than one time period a day. The estimates quantify effects on the timing of daily demand by individual socio-economic variables, which encompasses, personal, household, regional characteristics as well as daily working hour arrangements within a flexible labour market. The question about individual effects of an aged society on the timing of daily demand for goods and services is analyzed with our microsimulation model ServSim and a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office. Main result: There are significant differences in explaining the timing of daily demand for goods compared to services on the one hand and in particular for different daily time periods. The conclusion: without the timing aspects an important and significant dimension for understanding individual consumption behaviour and their impacts on other individual living conditions would be missing.timing of daily consumption/demand for goods and services, shopping hours, consumption and service activities, German Time Budget Survey 2001/2002, time use diaries, multivariate probit estimation, microsimulation model ServSim

The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data

Though consumption research provides a broad spectrum of theoretical and empirical founded results, studies based on a daily focus are missing. Knowledge about the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services, opens – beyond a genuine contribution to consumption research – interesting societal and macro economic as well as individual personal and firm perspectives: it is important for an efficient timely coordination of supply and demand in the timing perspective as well as for a targeted economic, social and societal policy for a better support of the every day coordination of life. Last not least, the individual daily public and private living situations will be visible, which are of particular importance for the social togetherness in family and society. Our study contributes to the timing of daily consumption for goods and services with an empirical founded microanalysis on the basis of more than 37.000 individual time use diaries of the nationwide Time Budget Survey of the German Federal Statistical Office 2001/02. We describe the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services for important socio-demographic groups like for women and men, the economic situation with income poverty and daily working hour arrangements. The multivariate microeconometric explanation of the daily demand for goods and services is based on a latent utility maximizing approach over a day. We estimate an eight equation Multivariate/Simultaneous Probit Model, which allows the decision for multiple consumption activities in more than one time period a day. The estimates quantify effects on the timing of daily demand by individual socio-economic variables, which encompasses, personal, household, regional characteristics as well as daily working hour arrangements within a flexible labour market. The question about individual effects of an aged society on the timing of daily demand for goods and services is analyzed with our microsimulation model ServSim and a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office. Main result: There are significant differences in explaining the timing of daily demand for goods compared to services on the one hand and in particular for different daily time periods. The conclusion: without the timing aspects an important and significant dimension for understanding individual consumption behaviour and their impacts on other individual living conditions would be missing.timing of daily consumption/demand for goods and services, shopping hours, consumption and service activities, German Time Budget Survey 2001/2002, time use diaries, multivariate probit estimation, microsimulation model ServSim

Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? – Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim

The objective of this study is the empirical founded analysis of the daily demand for service activities, over the hours of the day. Our microdata base consists of time-diaries of the nation wide Time Use Survey 2001/2002 of the German Federal Statistical Office. The frame for this analysis are new shopping hours regulations in Germany. After an illustration of the historical development of shopping hours in Germany and after a short discussion of the liberalization of shopping hours we describe the daily structure of the demand for service activities. We analyze the demand structure for two alternative scenarios and for important socio-economic groups of the society on the basis of our new microsimulation model ServSim. Background of these two scenarios are population projections for the years 2010 and 2020 which were conducted by the Federal Statistical Office Germany. These projections were used to adjust (reweight) the data by a 'static-aging'-approach. The multivariate explanation of the demand for service activities inconducted. The descriptive results, the microeconometric estimation outcomes and the Microsimulation results show clear distinctions of the daily demand in particular against the background of socio-economic groups of the society

Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? – Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim

Ziel dieser Studie ist die empirisch fundierte Untersuchung der tageszeitlichen Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen. Datengrundlage hierfür ist die Zeitbudgeterhebung 2001/2002 des Statistischen Bundesamtes. Den Rahmen für unsere Analyse bilden die neuen Regulierungen der Ladenschlusszeiten in Deutschland. Auf eine kurze Darstellung der historischen Entwicklung und der Diskussion über die Liberalisierung folgt eine deskriptive Analyse der vorgefundenen tageszeitliche Nachfragestruktur nach Serviceleistungen. Darauf aufbauend analysieren wir mit zwei alternativen Bevölkerungsszenarien des Statistischen Bundesamtes für die Jahre 2010 und 2020 das tageszeitliche Nachfrageverhalten für wichtige sozio-ökonomische Gruppen der Gesellschaft anhand unseres neuen Mikrosimulationsmodells ServSim. Für die multivariate Erklärung der tageszeitlichen Lage der Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen ziehen wir insbesondere ein Rare-Events-Modell heran. Sowohl die deskriptiven Ergebnisse, die mikroökonometrischen Schätzergebnisse als auch die Ergebnisse der Simulationen liefern deutliche Unterschiede im tageszeitlichen Nachfrageverhalten besonders vor dem Hintergrund sozio-ökonomischer Differenzierungen der Gesellschaft

Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? – Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim

Ziel dieser Studie ist die empirisch fundierte Untersuchung der tageszeitlichen Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen. Datengrundlage hierfür ist die Zeitbudgeterhebung 2001/2002 des Statistischen Bundesamtes. Den Rahmen für unsere Analyse bilden die neuen Regulierungen der Ladenschlusszeiten in Deutschland. Auf eine kurze Darstellung der historischen Entwicklung und der Diskussion über die Liberalisierung folgt eine deskriptive Analyse der vorgefundenen tageszeitliche Nachfragestruktur nach Serviceleistungen. Darauf aufbauend analysieren wir mit zwei alternativen Bevölkerungsszenarien des Statistischen Bundesamtes für die Jahre 2010 und 2020 das tageszeitliche Nachfrageverhalten für wichtige sozio-ökonomische Gruppen der Gesellschaft anhand unseres neuen Mikrosimulationsmodells ServSim. Für die multivariate Erklärung der tageszeitlichen Lage der Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen ziehen wir insbesondere ein Rare-Events-Modell heran. Sowohl die deskriptiven Ergebnisse, die mikroökonometrischen Schätzergebnisse als auch die Ergebnisse der Simulationen liefern deutliche Unterschiede im tageszeitlichen Nachfrageverhalten besonders vor dem Hintergrund sozio-ökonomischer Differenzierungen der Gesellschaft

The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data

Though consumption research provides a broad spectrum of theoretical and empirical founded results, studies based on a daily focus are missing. Knowledge about the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services, opens – beyond a genuine contribution to consumption research – interesting societal and macro economic as well as individual personal and firm perspectives: it is important for an efficient timely coordination of supply and demand in the timing perspective as well as for a targeted economic, social and societal policy for a better support of the every day coordination of life. Last not least, the individual daily public and private living situations will be visible, which are of particular importance for the social togetherness in family and society. Our study contributes to the timing of daily consumption for goods and services with an empirical founded microanalysis on the basis of more than 37.000 individual time use diaries of the nationwide Time Budget Survey of the German Federal Statistical Office 2001/02. We describe the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services for important socio-demographic groups like for women and men, the economic situation with income poverty and daily working hour arrangements. The multivariate microeconometric explanation of the daily demand for goods and services is based on a latent utility maximizing approach over a day. We estimate an eight equation Multivariate/Simultaneous Probit Model, which allows the decision for multiple consumption activities in more than one time period a day. The estimates quantify effects on the timing of daily demand by individual socio-economic variables, which encompasses, personal, household, regional characteristics as well as daily working hour arrangements within a flexible labour market. The question about individual effects of an aged society on the timing of daily demand for goods and services is analyzed with our microsimulation model ServSim and a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office. Main result: There are significant differences in explaining the timing of daily demand for goods compared to services on the one hand and in particular for different daily time periods. The conclusion: without the timing aspects an important and significant dimension for understanding individual consumption behaviour and their impacts on other individual living conditions would be missing

The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services—Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society, Increasing Labour Market Flexibility, and Extended Public Childcare in Germany

Timing of daily demand, Consumer policy analysis by microsimulation, Aging society, Flexible working hours, Public childcare support,

Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? – Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim

Ziel dieser Studie ist die empirisch fundierte Untersuchung der tageszeitlichen Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen. Datengrundlage hierfür ist die Zeitbudgeterhebung 2001/2002 des Statistischen Bundesamtes. Den Rahmen für unsere Analyse bilden die neuen Regulierungen der Ladenschlusszeiten in Deutschland. Auf eine kurze Darstellung der historischen Entwicklung und der Diskussion über die Liberalisierung folgt eine deskriptive Analyse der vorgefundenen tageszeitliche Nachfragestruktur nach Serviceleistungen. Darauf aufbauend analysieren wir mit zwei alternativen Bevölkerungsszenarien des Statistischen Bundesamtes für die Jahre 2010 und 2020 das tageszeitliche Nachfrageverhalten für wichtige sozio-ökonomische Gruppen der Gesellschaft anhand unseres neuen Mikrosimulationsmodells ServSim. Für die multivariate Erklärung der tageszeitlichen Lage der Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen ziehen wir insbesondere ein Rare-Events-Modell heran. Sowohl die deskriptiven Ergebnisse, die mikroökonometrischen Schätzergebnisse als auch die Ergebnisse der Simulationen liefern deutliche Unterschiede im tageszeitlichen Nachfrageverhalten besonders vor dem Hintergrund sozio-ökonomischer Differenzierungen der Gesellschaft.Tageszeitliches Nachfrageverhalten, Ladenöffnungszeiten, Serviceleistungen, Zeitbudgeterhebung 2001/2002, Rare Events Logit, ServSim