63 research outputs found

    Some models are useful, but how do we know which ones? Towards a unified Bayesian model taxonomy

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    Probabilistic (Bayesian) modeling has experienced a surge of applications in almost all quantitative sciences and industrial areas. This development is driven by a combination of several factors, including better probabilistic estimation algorithms, flexible software, increased computing power, and a growing awareness of the benefits of probabilistic learning. However, a principled Bayesian model building workflow is far from complete and many challenges remain. To aid future research and applications of a principled Bayesian workflow, we ask and provide answers for what we perceive as two fundamental questions of Bayesian modeling, namely (a) "What actually is a Bayesian model?" and (b) "What makes a good Bayesian model?". As an answer to the first question, we propose the PAD model taxonomy that defines four basic kinds of Bayesian models, each representing some combination of the assumed joint distribution of all (known or unknown) variables (P), a posterior approximator (A), and training data (D). As an answer to the second question, we propose ten utility dimensions according to which we can evaluate Bayesian models holistically, namely, (1) causal consistency, (2) parameter recoverability, (3) predictive performance, (4) fairness, (5) structural faithfulness, (6) parsimony, (7) interpretability, (8) convergence, (9) estimation speed, and (10) robustness. Further, we propose two example utility decision trees that describe hierarchies and trade-offs between utilities depending on the inferential goals that drive model building and testing

    Fuse It or Lose It: Deep Fusion for Multimodal Simulation-Based Inference

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    We present multimodal neural posterior estimation (MultiNPE), a method to integrate heterogeneous data from different sources in simulation-based inference with neural networks. Inspired by advances in deep fusion learning, it empowers researchers to analyze data from different domains and infer the parameters of complex mathematical models with increased accuracy. We formulate multimodal fusion approaches for \hbox{MultiNPE} (early, late, hybrid) and evaluate their performance in three challenging experiments. MultiNPE not only outperforms single-source baselines on a reference task, but also achieves superior inference on scientific models from neuroscience and cardiology. We systematically investigate the impact of partially missing data on the different fusion strategies. Across our experiments, late and hybrid fusion techniques emerge as the methods of choice for practical applications of multimodal simulation-based inference

    Validation and Comparison of Non-Stationary Cognitive Models: A Diffusion Model Application

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    Cognitive processes undergo various fluctuations and transient states across different temporal scales. Superstatistics are emerging as a flexible framework for incorporating such non-stationary dynamics into existing cognitive model classes. In this work, we provide the first experimental validation of superstatistics and formal comparison of four non-stationary diffusion decision models in a specifically designed perceptual decision-making task. Task difficulty and speed-accuracy trade-off were systematically manipulated to induce expected changes in model parameters. To validate our models, we assess whether the inferred parameter trajectories align with the patterns and sequences of the experimental manipulations. To address computational challenges, we present novel deep learning techniques for amortized Bayesian estimation and comparison of models with time-varying parameters. Our findings indicate that transition models incorporating both gradual and abrupt parameter shifts provide the best fit to the empirical data. Moreover, we find that the inferred parameter trajectories closely mirror the sequence of experimental manipulations. Posterior re-simulations further underscore the ability of the models to faithfully reproduce critical data patterns. Accordingly, our results suggest that the inferred non-stationary dynamics may reflect actual changes in the targeted psychological constructs. We argue that our initial experimental validation paves the way for the widespread application of superstatistics in cognitive modeling and beyond

    A Deep Learning Method for Comparing Bayesian Hierarchical Models

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    Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular class of hierarchical models due to their high-dimensional nested parameter structure. To address this intractability, we propose a deep learning method for performing BMC on any set of hierarchical models which can be instantiated as probabilistic programs. Since our method enables amortized inference, it allows efficient re-estimation of posterior model probabilities and fast performance validation prior to any real-data application. In a series of extensive validation studies, we benchmark the performance of our method against the state-of-the-art bridge sampling method and demonstrate excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings. We then showcase our method by comparing four hierarchical evidence accumulation models that have previously been deemed intractable for BMC due to partly implicit likelihoods. In this application, we corroborate evidence for the recently proposed L\'evy flight model of decision-making and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to enhance training efficiency. We provide reproducible code for all analyses and an open-source implementation of our method

    Towards Context-Aware Domain Generalization: Understanding the Benefits and Limits of Marginal Transfer Learning

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    In this work, we analyze the conditions under which information about the context of an input XX can improve the predictions of deep learning models in new domains. Following work in marginal transfer learning in Domain Generalization (DG), we formalize the notion of context as a permutation-invariant representation of a set of data points that originate from the same domain as the input itself. We offer a theoretical analysis of the conditions under which this approach can, in principle, yield benefits, and formulate two necessary criteria that can be easily verified in practice. Additionally, we contribute insights into the kind of distribution shifts for which the marginal transfer learning approach promises robustness. Empirical analysis shows that our criteria are effective in discerning both favorable and unfavorable scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate that we can reliably detect scenarios where a model is tasked with unwarranted extrapolation in out-of-distribution (OOD) domains, identifying potential failure cases. Consequently, we showcase a method to select between the most predictive and the most robust model, circumventing the well-known trade-off between predictive performance and robustness

    Neural Superstatistics for Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Cognitive Model

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    Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension and estimate the resulting dynamics from a superstatistics perspective. Such a model entails a hierarchy between a low-level observation model and a high-level transition model. The observation model describes the local behavior of a system, and the transition model specifies how the parameters of the observation model evolve over time. To overcome the estimation challenges resulting from the complexity of superstatistical models, we develop and validate a simulation-based deep learning method for Bayesian inference, which can recover both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. We first benchmark our method against two existing frameworks capable of estimating time-varying parameters. We then apply our method to fit a dynamic version of the diffusion decision model to long time series of human response times data. Our results show that the deep learning approach is very efficient in capturing the temporal dynamics of the model. Furthermore, we show that the erroneous assumption of static or homogeneous parameters will hide important temporal information
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