Barriers and the Transition to Modern Growth

This paper attempts to account for current huge international income disparities by considering the fact that countries enter into modern growth at different points in time. The mechanism for the transition from stagnation to modern growth is taken from Hansen and Prescott (1999). Countries in the model are indexed by levels of barriers to capital accumulation, which is modeled as influencing the relative price of capital goods. The model implies that countries with larger barriers leave the state of stagnation later. In contrast to a current line of research which focuses on steady state income differences, this paper argues that the current income differences are not just steady state consequences of policy distortion, but more importantly that they are due to a delay in the transition to modern growth caused by the policy distortion.

Structural change in a multi-sector model of growth

We study a multisector model of growth with differences in TFP growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change, characterized by sectoral labor reallocation and balanced aggregate growth. The conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions. Along the balanced growth path, labor employed in the production of consumption goods gradually moves to the sector with the lowest TFP growth rate, until in the limit it is the only sector with nontrivial employment of this kind. The employment shares of intermediate and capital goods remain constant during the reallocation process

Structural change in a multi-sector model of growth.

We study a multisector model of growth with differences in TFP growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change, characterized by sectoral labor reallocation and balanced aggregate growth. The conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions. Along the balanced growth path, labor employed in the production of consumption goods gradually moves to the sector with the lowest TFP growth rate, until in the limit it is the only sector with nontrivial employment of this kind. The employment shares of intermediate and capital goods remain constant during the reallocation process.

Trends in hours and economic growth.

We study long-run trends in market hours of work and employment shifts across economic sectors driven by uneven TFP growth in market and home production. We focus on the structural transformation between agriculture, manufacturing and services and on the marketization of home production. The model can rationalize the observed falling or Ushaped pattern for aggregate hours, the shift from agriculture to services and balanced aggregate growth. We find support for the model’s predictions in long-run US data.

In brief: Hot and cold seasons in the housing market

The difference in the price you pay for the same house in the summer and in the winter is huge, according to Rachel Ngai and Silvana Tenreyro.

Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market

Every year during the second and thirdquarters (the "hot season") housing markets in the UK and the US experience systematic above-trend increases in both prices and transactions. During the fourth and first quarters (the "cold season"), house prices and transactions fall below trend. We propose a search-and-matching framework that sheds new light on the mechanisms governing housing market fluctuations. The model has a "thick-market" effect that can generate substantial differences in the volume of transactions and prices across seasons, with the extent of seasonality in prices depending crucially on the bargaining power of sellers. The model can quantitatively mimic the seasonal fluctuations in transactions and prices observed in the UK and the US.housing market, thick-market effects, search-and-matching, seasonality, house price fluctuations

An R&D-Based Model of Multi-Sector Growth

We develop a multi-sector general equilibrium model in which productivity growth is driven by the production of sector-specific knowledge. In the model, we find that long run differences in total factor productivity growth across sectors are independent of the parameters of the knowledge production function except for one, which we term the fertility of knowledge. Differences in R&D intensity are also independent of most other parameters. The fertility of knowledge in the capital sector is central to the growth properties of the model economy.Endogenous technical change, multisector growth, fertility of knowledge, total factor productivity, R&D intensity, investment-specific technical change

Balanced Growth With Structural Change

We study a multi-sector model of growth with differences in TFP growth rates across sectorsand derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of a balanced aggregate growth path, withall aggregates growing at the same rate, and structural change, characterized by sectoral laborreallocation. The conditions needed are weak restrictions on the utility and productionfunctions: goods should be poor substitutes and the intertemporal elasticity of substitutionshould be one. We present evidence from US and UK sectors, that is consistent with ourconclusions and successfully calibrate the shift from agriculture to manufacturing andservices in the United States.structural change, balanced growth, total factor productivity

Mapping Prices into Productivity in Multisector Growth Models

Two issues related to mapping a multi-sector model into a reduced-form value-added model are often neglected: the composition of intermediate goods, and the distinction between value added productivity and gross output productivity. We demonstrate their quantitative significance for the case of the well known model of Greenwood, Hercowitz and Krusell (1997), who find that about 60% of economic growth can be attributed to investment-specific technical change (ISTC). When we recalibrate their model to allow for even a small equipment share of intermediates, we find that ISTC accounts for almost the entirety of postwar US growth.Intermediate goods, investment-specific technical change, growth accounting, gross output, multisector growth models

Welfare Policy and the Distribution of Hours of Work

We examine the distribution of hours of work across industrial sectors in OECD countries. We find large disparities when sectors are divided into three groups: one that produces goods without home substitutes and two others that have home substitutes — health and social work, and all others. We attribute the disparities to the countries' tax and subsidy policies. High taxation substantially reduces hours in sectors that have close home substitutes but less so in other sectors. Health and social care subsidies increase hours in that sector. We compute these effects for nineteen OECD countries.hours of work, employment shares, home production, childcare, tax wedge, welfare state, social subsidies