Optimal Exercise Strategies for Operational Risk Insurance via Multiple Stopping Times

In this paper we demonstrate how to develop analytic closed form solutions to optimal multiple stopping time problems arising in the setting in which the value function acts on a compound process that is modified by the actions taken at the stopping times. This class of problem is particularly relevant in insurance and risk management settings and we demonstrate this on an important application domain based on insurance strategies in Operational Risk management for financial institutions. In this area of risk management the most prevalent class of loss process models is the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) framework which involves modelling annual losses via a compound process. Given an LDA model framework, we consider Operational Risk insurance products that mitigate the risk for such loss processes and may reduce capital requirements. In particular, we consider insurance products that grant the policy holder the right to insure k of its annual Operational losses in a horizon of T years. We consider two insurance product structures and two general model settings, the first are families of relevant LDA loss models that we can obtain closed form optimal stopping rules for under each generic insurance mitigation structure and then secondly classes of LDA models for which we can develop closed form approximations of the optimal stopping rules. In particular, for losses following a compound Poisson process with jump size given by an Inverse-Gaussian distribution and two generic types of insurance mitigation, we are able to derive analytic expressions for the loss process modified by the insurance application, as well as closed form solutions for the optimal multiple stopping rules in discrete time (annually). When the combination of insurance mitigation and jump size distribution does not lead to tractable stopping rules we develop a principled class of closed form approximations to the optimal decision rule. These approximations are developed based on a class of orthogonal Askey polynomial series basis expansion representations of the annual loss compound process distribution and functions of this annual loss

Short courses of daily prednisolone during upper respiratory tract infections reduce relapse frequency in childhood nephrotic syndrome

Background Relapses of childhood nephrotic syndrome (NS) are frequently precipitated by viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs). A review of the literature reveals that in patients with steroid-dependent NS on alternate day corticosteroids, a short course of daily corticosteroid therapy during the course of an URTI may reduce relapse frequency. Objective To assess the effect of a short course of low-dose corticosteroid therapy during the course of an URTI on relapse frequency in patients with steroid-sensitive NS who have not been taking any treatment for a minimum period of 3 months. Methods A double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial was conducted on 48 patients with idiopathic NS who had not been receiving corticosteroid therapy for a minimum of 3 months. Patients were randomized into two groups. Group A received 5 days of daily prednisolone at 0.5 mg/kg at the onset of an URTI while group B received 5 days of placebo. Both groups were followed up for 1 year and the URTI-induced relapse frequency was noted. A crossover was performed during the next year, with group A receiving placebo and group B receiving prednisolone. Results Thirty-three patients completed the study. In the treatment group, 115 episodes of URTI led to 11 relapses while in the control group 101 episodes of URTI led to 25 relapses. There was no significant difference between the mean number of URTIs between the treatment and control groups. The treatment group had significantly less relapses compared to the control group (p = 0.014). Within the treatment group, 65.6% did not relapse, while the remainder had a single relapse. In contrast, only 40.6% of the control group remained in remission while 40.6% suffered a single relapse and 18.8% had two or more relapses. Conclusions Prescribing a short course of daily corticosteroids during an URTI significantly reduces the frequency of URTI-induced relapse in patients with steroid-responsive NS who are off corticosteroid therapy

Carotid shunt provides cerebral protection during emergency coronary artery bypass grafting in a patient with bilateral high grade carotid stenosis: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Management of patients with co-existent coronary and carotid disease is a controversial and challenging issue. The risk for stroke after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with hemodynamically significant carotid stenosis is up to 30%. In these patients a common practice is to proceed first with the restoration of cerebral perfusion and then perform the coronary revascularization. The rationale is that this strategy will reduce perioperative neurological morbidity and mortality. However, what happens when the carotid procedure is acutely complicated by cardiac instability which necessitates the interruption of the carotid procedure?</p> <p>Case report</p> <p>We describe a case of a patient with unstable angina and high grade asymptomatic bilateral carotid stenosis who underwent emergency combined CABG and carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Due to hemodynamic instability, ST-T changes, hypotension and bradycardia, upon completion of endarterectomy we placed a carotid shunt and the patient was put on cardiopulmonary bypass through median sternotomy. After triple CABG (duration of 90 minutes) we concluded the interrupted CEA procedure with primary closure of the carotid arteriotomy with the shunt in place. The postoperative course was uneventful and the patient was discharged after a week. In extreme cases with bilateral severe carotid stenosis and coronary artery disease where the carotid procedure should be interrupted, we suggest the use of carotid shunt which can provide adequate cerebral perfusion giving time to cardiac surgeon to perform the life saving cardiac procedure first.</p

Phylogenetic studies reveal existence of multiple lineages of a single genotype of DENV-1 (genotype III) in India during 1956–2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) have been mostly circulating silently with dominant serotypes DENV-2 and DENV-3 in India. However recent times have marked an increase in DENV-1 circulation in yearly outbreaks. Many studies have not been carried out on this virus type, leaving a lacunae pertaining to the circulating genotypes, since its earliest report in India. In the present study, we sequenced CprM gene junction of 13 DENV-1 isolated from Delhi and Gwalior (North India) between 2001–2007 and one 1956 Vellore isolate as reference. For comparison, we retrieved 11 other Indian and 70 global reference sequences from NCBI database, making sure that Indian and global isolates from all decades are available for comparative analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The region was found to be AT rich with no insertion or deletion. Majority of the nucleotide substitutions were silent, except 3 non-conservative amino acid changes (I → T, A → T and L → S at amino acid positions 59,114 and 155 respectively) in the Indian DENV-1 sequences, sequenced in this study. Except two 1997–98 Delhi isolates, which group in genotype I; all other Indian isolates group in genotype III. All Indian genotype III DENV-1 exhibited diversity among them, giving rise to at least 4 distinct lineages (India 1–4) showing proximity to isolates from diverse geographic locations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The extensive phylogenetic analysis revealed consistent existence of multiple lineages of DENV-1 genotype III during the last 5 decades in India.</p

Exoplanets and SETI

The discovery of exoplanets has both focused and expanded the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The consideration of Earth as an exoplanet, the knowledge of the orbital parameters of individual exoplanets, and our new understanding of the prevalence of exoplanets throughout the galaxy have all altered the search strategies of communication SETI efforts, by inspiring new "Schelling points" (i.e. optimal search strategies for beacons). Future efforts to characterize individual planets photometrically and spectroscopically, with imaging and via transit, will also allow for searches for a variety of technosignatures on their surfaces, in their atmospheres, and in orbit around them. In the near-term, searches for new planetary systems might even turn up free-floating megastructures.Comment: 9 page invited review. v2 adds some references and v3 has other minor additions and modification

Egocentric Social Network Structure, Health, and Pro-Social Behaviors in a National Panel Study of Americans

Using a population-based, panel survey, we study how egocentric social networks change over time, and the relationship between egocentric network properties and health and pro-social behaviors. We find that the number of prosocial activities is strongly positively associated with having more friends, or an increase in degree, with approximately 0.04 more prosocial behaviors expected for every friend added. Moreover, having more friends is associated with an improvement in health, while being healthy and prosocial is associated with closer relationships. Specifically, a unit increase in health is associated with an expected 0.45 percentage-point increase in average closeness, while adding a prosocial activity is associated with a 0.46 percentage-point increase in the closeness of one’s relationships. Furthermore, a tradeoff between degree and closeness of social contacts was observed. As the number of close social contacts increases by one, the estimated average closeness of each individual contact decreases by approximately three percentage-points. The increased awareness of the importance of spillover effects in health and health care makes the ascertainment of egocentric social networks a valuable complement to investigations of the relationship between socioeconomic factors and health

Out of Amazonia: Late Holocene Climate Change and the Tupi-Guarani Trans-Continental Expansion

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this recordThe late Holocene expansion of the Tupi-Guarani languages from southern Amazonia to SE South America constitutes one of the largest expansions of any linguistic family in the world, spanning ~ 4000 km between latitudes 0°S and 35°S at about 2500 yr B.P. However, the underlying reasons for this expansion are a matter of debate. Here, we compare continental-scale paleoecological, paleoclimate, and archaeological datasets, to examine the role of climate change in facilitating the expansion of this forest-farming culture. Because this expansion lies within the path of the South American Low-Level Jet, the key mechanism for moisture transport across lowland South America, we were able to explore the relationship between climate change, forest expansion, and the Tupi-Guarani. Our data synthesis shows broad synchrony between late Holocene increasing precipitation and southerly expansion of both tropical forest and Guarani archaeological sites – the southernmost branch of the Tupi-Guarani. We conclude that climate change likely facilitated expansion of the Guarani forest-farming culture by increasing the area of forested landscape that they could exploit, showing a prime example of ecological opportunism.The ideas and themes developed in this paper stem from a European Research Council project ‘Pre-Columbian Amazon-Scale Transformations’ (ERC-CoG 616179) to JI. The University of Reading’s ‘Centre for Past Climate Change’ funded a writing workshop for this paper. RS was funded by an NERC ‘Scenario’ DTP PhD award. JGS was funded by a CAPES PhD scholarship (Ministry of Education, Brazil). JFC and MLC received postdoctoral funding from the University of Reading and the Arts and Humanities Research Council, respectively

Historical Reconstruction Reveals Recovery in Hawaiian Coral Reefs

Coral reef ecosystems are declining worldwide, yet regional differences in the trajectories, timing and extent of degradation highlight the need for in-depth regional case studies to understand the factors that contribute to either ecosystem sustainability or decline. We reconstructed social-ecological interactions in Hawaiian coral reef environments over 700 years using detailed datasets on ecological conditions, proximate anthropogenic stressor regimes and social change. Here we report previously undetected recovery periods in Hawaiian coral reefs, including a historical recovery in the MHI (∼AD 1400–1820) and an ongoing recovery in the NWHI (∼AD 1950–2009+). These recovery periods appear to be attributed to a complex set of changes in underlying social systems, which served to release reefs from direct anthropogenic stressor regimes. Recovery at the ecosystem level is associated with reductions in stressors over long time periods (decades+) and large spatial scales (>103 km2). Our results challenge conventional assumptions and reported findings that human impacts to ecosystems are cumulative and lead only to long-term trajectories of environmental decline. In contrast, recovery periods reveal that human societies have interacted sustainably with coral reef environments over long time periods, and that degraded ecosystems may still retain the adaptive capacity and resilience to recover from human impacts