The pattern of central bank development: past, present and future

Commercial banking developed in Italy by the fifteenth century. The public banks of Naples were in the forefront of that development. Subsequently, they, and the practice of banking worldwide, have been undergoing a continuous process of development, partly in response to the changing structure and needs of the macro-economy and partly in response to crises. The “real bills” doctrine seemed appropriate in practice for much of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries despite its theoretical flaws. Inflation targetry, combined with light-touch micro-prudential regulation, appeared to be an effective replacement in the late twentieth century until the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Central banks are still groping for a new paradigm. When the future appears so uncertain, insights from history may become more relevant

LTRo: Learning to Route Queries in Clustered P2P IR

Query Routing is a critical step in P2P Information Retrieval. In this paper, we consider learning to rank approaches for query routing in the clustered P2P IR architecture. Our formulation, LTRo, scores resources based on the number of relevant documents for each training query, and uses that information to build a model that would then rank promising peers for a new query. Our empirical analysis over a variety of P2P IR testbeds illustrate the superiority of our method against the state-of-the-art methods for query routing

Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization for the minimum labelling Steiner tree problem

Particle Swarm Optimization is an evolutionary method inspired by the social behaviour of individuals inside swarms in nature. Solutions of the problem are modelled as members of the swarm which fly in the solution space. The evolution is obtained from the continuous movement of the particles that constitute the swarm submitted to the effect of the inertia and the attraction of the members who lead the swarm. This work focuses on a recent Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization for combinatorial optimization, called Jumping Particle Swarm Optimization. Its effectiveness is illustrated on the minimum labelling Steiner tree problem: given an undirected labelled connected graph, the aim is to find a spanning tree covering a given subset of nodes, whose edges have the smallest number of distinct labels

The Spatial Limitations of Current Neutral Models of Biodiversity

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography is increasingly accepted as an informative null model of community composition and dynamics. It has successfully produced macro-ecological patterns such as species-area relationships and species abundance distributions. However, the models employed make many unrealistic auxiliary assumptions. For example, the popular spatially implicit version assumes a local plot exchanging migrants with a large panmictic regional source pool. This simple structure allows rigorous testing of its fit to data. In contrast, spatially explicit models assume that offspring disperse only limited distances from their parents, but one cannot as yet test the significance of their fit to data. Here we compare the spatially explicit and the spatially implicit model, fitting the most-used implicit model (with two levels, local and regional) to data simulated by the most-used spatially explicit model (where offspring are distributed about their parent on a grid according to either a radially symmetric Gaussian or a ‘fat-tailed’ distribution). Based on these fits, we express spatially implicit parameters in terms of spatially explicit parameters. This suggests how we may obtain estimates of spatially explicit parameters from spatially implicit ones. The relationship between these parameters, however, makes no intuitive sense. Furthermore, the spatially implicit model usually fits observed species-abundance distributions better than those calculated from the spatially explicit model's simulated data. Current spatially explicit neutral models therefore have limited descriptive power. However, our results suggest that a fatter tail of the dispersal kernel seems to improve the fit, suggesting that dispersal kernels with even fatter tails should be studied in future. We conclude that more advanced spatially explicit models and tools to analyze them need to be developed

Using Bayesian Networks and Machine Learning to Predict Computer Science Success

Bayesian Networks and Machine Learning techniques were evaluated and compared for predicting academic performance of Computer Science students at the University of Cape Town. Bayesian Networks performed similarly to other classification models. The causal links AQ1 inherent in Bayesian Networks allow for understanding of the contributing factors for academic success in this field. The most effective indicators of success in first-year ‘core’ courses in Computer Science included the student’s scores for Mathematics and Physics as well as their aptitude for learning and their work ethos. It was found that unsuccessful students could be identified with ≈91% accuracy. This could help to increase throughput as well as student wellbeing at university

A novel method for spectrophotometric determination of pregabalin in pure form and in capsules

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pregabalin, a γ-amino-n-butyric acid derivative, is an antiepileptic drug not yet official in any pharmacopeia and development of analytical procedures for this drug in bulk/formulation forms is a necessity. We herein, report a new, simple, extraction free, cost effective, sensitive and reproducible spectrophotometric method for the determination of the pregabalin.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pregabalin, as a primary amine was reacted with ninhydrin in phosphate buffer pH 7.4 to form blue violet colored chromogen which could be measured spectrophotometrically at λ_max402.6 nm. The method was validated with respect to linearity, accuracy, precision and robustness. The method showed linearity in a wide concentration range of 50-1000 μg mL^-1with good correlation coefficient (0.992). The limits of assays detection was found to be 6.0 μg mL^-1and quantitation limit was 20.0 μg mL^-1. The suggested method was applied to the determination of the drug in capsules. No interference could be observed from the additives in the capsules. The percentage recovery was found to be 100.43 ± 1.24.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The developed method was successfully validated and applied to the determination of pregabalin in bulk and pharmaceutical formulations without any interference from common excipients. Hence, this method can be potentially useful for routine laboratory analysis of pregabalin.</p

The Singapore Asymptomatic Narrow Angles Laser Iridotomy Study (ANA-LIS): 5 year results of a Randomized Controlled Trial

PURPOSE: To examine the efficacy of laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) in subjects diagnosed as primary angle closure suspects (PACS) DESIGN: Prospective, randomized controlled trial PARTICIPANTS: This multi-center, randomized controlled trial (NCT00347178, Clinical trials.gov) enrolled 480 subjects over the age of 50 years from glaucoma clinics in Singapore with bilateral asymptomatic PACS (defined as having ≥2 quadrants of appositional angle closure on gonioscopy). METHODS: Each subject underwent prophylactic LPI in one randomly selected eye, while the fellow eye served as control. Subjects were followed up yearly for 5 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was development of primary angle closure (PAC, defined as presence of peripheral anterior synechiae, and/or intraocular pressure>21 mmHg or acute angle closure [AAC]) or PACG over 5 years. RESULTS: Of the 480 randomized subjects, the majority were Chinese (92.7%) and female (75.8%) with mean age of 62.8±6.9 years. LPI-treated eyes reached endpoint less frequently after five years (24, 5.0%, incidence rate [IR]=11.65 per 1000 eye-years) compared to control eyes (45, 9.4%, IR=21.84 per 1000 eye-years, p=0.001). The adjusted hazards ratio (HR) for progression to PAC was 0.55 (95%CI: 0.37-0.83, p=0.004) in LPI-treated eyes compared to control eyes. Older subjects (per year, HR=1.06, 95%CI: 1.03-1.10, p<0.001) and eyes with higher baseline IOP (per mm Hg, HR=1.35, 95%CI: 1.22-1.50, p<0.0001) were more likely to reach an endpoint. The number needed to treat in order to prevent an endpoint was 22 (95%CI: 12.8-57.5). CONCLUSIONS: In subjects with bilateral asymptomatic PACS, eyes that underwent prophylactic LPI had significantly fewer endpoints compared to control eyes over 5 years. However, the overall incidence of PAC or PACG was low

BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in a population-based study of male breast cancer

Background: The contribution of BRCA1 and BRCA2 to the incidence of male breast cancer (MBC) in the United Kingdom is not known, and the importance of these genes in the increased risk of female breast cancer associated with a family history of breast cancer in a male first-degree relative is unclear. Methods: We have carried out a population-based study of 94 MBC cases collected in the UK. We screened genomic DNA for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 and used family history data from these cases to calculate the risk of breast cancer to female relatives of MBC cases. We also estimated the contribution of BRCA1 and BRCA2 to this risk. Results: Nineteen cases (20%) reported a first-degree relative with breast cancer, of whom seven also had an affected second-degree relative. The breast cancer risk in female first-degree relatives was 2.4 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4–4.0) the risk in the general population. No BRCA1 mutation carriers were identified and five cases were found to carry a mutation in BRCA2. Allowing for a mutation detection sensitivity frequency of 70%, the carrier frequency for BRCA2 mutations was 8% (95% CI = 3–19). All the mutation carriers had a family history of breast, ovarian, prostate or pancreatic cancer. However, BRCA2 accounted for only 15% of the excess familial risk of breast cancer in female first-degree relatives. Conclusion: These data suggest that other genes that confer an increased risk for both female and male breast cancer have yet to be found

A sense of embodiment is reflected in people's signature size

BACKGROUND: The size of a person's signature may reveal implicit information about how the self is perceived although this has not been closely examined. METHODS/RESULTS: We conducted three experiments to test whether increases in signature size can be induced. Specifically, the aim of these experiments was to test whether changes in signature size reflect a person's current implicit sense of embodiment. Experiment 1 showed that an implicit affect task (positive subliminal evaluative conditioning) led to increases in signature size relative to an affectively neutral task, showing that implicit affective cues alter signature size. Experiments 2 and 3 demonstrated increases in signature size following experiential self-focus on sensory and affective stimuli relative to both conceptual self-focus and external (non-self-focus) in both healthy participants and patients with anorexia nervosa, a disorder associated with self-evaluation and a sense of disembodiment. In all three experiments, increases in signature size were unrelated to changes in self-reported mood and larger than manipulation unrelated variations. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these findings suggest that a person's sense of embodiment is reflected in their signature size

A hypothetical correlation between hyaluronic acid gel and development of cutaneous metaplastic synovial cyst

Thousands of patients receive hyaluronic acid filler injections, and the effects are generally considered acceptable. The acid rarely causes cutaneous reactions, which are only occasionally reported in the literature