Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of responsibility models as a means of representing the key features of contingency plans. Using a case study of a flooding emergency, we illustrate our approach to responsibility modelling and suggest how it adds value to current textual contingency plans

Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades

Earth’s equator-to-pole temperature gradient drives westerly mid-latitude jet streams through thermal wind balance. In the upper atmosphere, anthropogenic climate change is strengthening this meridional temperature gradient by cooling the polar lower stratosphere and warming the tropical upper troposphere acting to strengthen the upper-level jet stream. In contrast, in the lower atmosphere, Arctic amplification of global warming is weakening the meridional temperature gradient acting to weaken the upper-level jet stream. Therefore, trends in the speed of the upper-level jet stream represent a closely balanced tug-of-war between two competing effects at different altitudes. It is possible to isolate one of the competing effects by analysing the vertical shear—the change in wind speed with height—instead of the wind speed, but this approach has not previously been taken. Here we show that, although the zonal wind speed in the North Atlantic polar jet stream at 250 hectopascals has not changed since the start of the observational satellite era in 1979, the vertical shear has increased by 15 per cent (with a range of 11–17 per cent) according to three different reanalysis datasets. We further show that this trend is attributable to the thermal wind response to the enhanced upper-level meridional temperature gradient. Our results indicate that climate change may be having a larger impact on the North Atlantic jet stream than previously thought. The increased vertical shear is consistent with the intensification of shear-driven clear-air turbulence expected from climate change which will affect aviation in the busy transatlantic flight corridor by creating a more turbulent flying environment for aircraft. We conclude that the effects of climate change and variability on the upper-level jet stream are being partly obscured by the traditional focus on wind speed rather than wind shear

Lung cancer referral patterns in the former Yorkshire region of the UK

The purpose of this study was to find out what proportion of patients are referred as lung cancer guidelines assume, whether different referral pathways result in different management and what proportion of patients are seen within recommended time intervals between referral and treatment. A randomly selected sample of 400 lung cancer cases registered with the former Yorkshire Cancer Registry database in 1993 was selected for casenote analysis. Mode of presentation, speciality of initial referral, treatment by specialist, time intervals for key points in the referral pathways were analyzed. A total of 362 (90.5%) of case-notes were available. Less than half of lung cancer patients (173, 47.8%) presented to hospital with a chest X-ray diagnosis of lung cancer. Forty-one (11.3%) presented as self-referrals to Accident and Emergency and the remainder were referred without a diagnosis of lung cancer by other routes, mainly via GPs. Patients who did not present initially with a lung cancer diagnosis were less likely to receive specialist care (62% : 96%), or have their diagnosis histologically confirmed (57.1% : 80.3%) or receive surgery or radical radiotherapy (6.9% : 13.9%). Nine per cent of all 362 patients did not receive a specialist opinion. Eighty per cent of patients referred by a GP with CXR suspected lung cancer were seen at hospital within 2 weeks. Only 32.4% of those receiving active treatment were treated within 8 weeks of clinical diagnosis or first hospital visit. Lung cancer patients presenting to hospital without a suspicious CXR are less likely to have specialist care, histological confirmation of their cancer and have lower rates of active treatment (surgery, any radiotherapy or chemotherapy)

Fitness consultations in routine care of patients with type 2 diabetes in general practice: an 18-month non-randomised intervention study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increasing physical activity is a cornerstone in the treatment of type 2 diabetes and in general practice it is a challenge to achieve long-term adherence to this life style change. The aim of this study was to investigate in a non-randomised design whether the introduction of motivational interviewing combined with fitness tests in the type 2 diabetes care programme was followed by a change in cardio-respiratory fitness expressed by VO_2max, muscle strength of upper and lower extremities, haemoglobin A_1c(HbA_1c) and HDL-cholesterol.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Uncontrolled 18-month intervention study with follow-up and effect assessment every 3 months in a primary care unit in Denmark with six general practitioners (GPs). Of 354 eligible patients with type 2 diabetes, 127 (35.9%) were included. Maximum work capacity was tested on a cycle ergometer and converted to VO_2max. Muscle strength was measured with an arm curl test and a chair stand test. The results were used in a subsequent motivational interview conducted by one of the GPs. Patients were encouraged to engage in lifestyle exercise and simple home-based self-managed exercise programmes. Data were analysed with mixed models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At end of study, 102 (80.3%) participants remained in the intervention. Over 18 months, VO_2maxincreased 2.5% (p = 0.032) while increases of 33.2% (p < 0.001) and 34.1% (p < 0.001) were registered for the arm curl test and chair stand test, respectively. HDL-cholesterol increased 8.6% (p < 0.001), but HbA_1cremained unchanged (p = 0.57) on a low level (6.8%). Patients without cardiovascular disease or pain from function limitation increased their VO_2maxby 5.2% (p < 0.0001) and 7.9% (p = 0.0008), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this 18-month study, participants who had repeated fitness consultations, including physical testing and motivational interviewing to improve physical activity, improved VO_2max, muscle strength, and lipid profile. Our results indicate that physical testing combined with motivational interviewing is feasible in a primary health care setting. Here, a fitness consultation tailored to the individual patient, his/her comorbidities and conditions in the local area can be incorporated into the diabetes programme to improve patients' muscle strength and cardio-respiratory fitness.</p

Brisk walking compared with an individualised medical fitness programme for patients with type 2 diabetes: a randomised controlled trial

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Structured exercise is considered a cornerstone in type 2 diabetes treatment. However, adherence to combined resistance and endurance type exercise or medical fitness intervention programmes is generally poor. Group-based brisk walking may represent an attractive alternative, but its long-term efficacy as compared with an individualised approach such as medical fitness intervention programmes is unknown. We compared the clinical benefits of a 12-month exercise intervention programme consisting of either brisk walking or a medical fitness programme in type 2 diabetes patients. METHODS: We randomised 92 type 2 diabetes patients (60 +/- 9 years old) to either three times a week of 60 min brisk walking (n = 49) or medical fitness programme (n = 43). Primary outcome was the difference in changes in HbA1c values at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were differences in changes in blood pressure, plasma lipid concentrations, insulin sensitivity, body composition, physical fitness, programme adherence rate and health-related quality of life. RESULTS: After 12 months, 18 brisk walking and 19 medical fitness participants were still actively participating. In both programmes, 50 and 25% of the dropout was attributed to overuse injuries and lack of motivation, respectively. Intention-to-treat analyses showed no important differences between brisk walking and medical fitness programme in primary or secondary outcome variables. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The prescription of group-based brisk walking represents an equally effective intervention to modulate glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk profile in type 2 diabetes patients when compared with more individualised medical fitness programmes. Future exercise intervention programmes should anticipate the high attrition rate due to overuse injuries and motivation problems

Fitness Cost of Resistance to Bt Cotton Linked with Increased Gossypol Content in Pink Bollworm Larvae

Fitness costs of resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops occur in the absence of Bt toxins, when individuals with resistance alleles are less fit than individuals without resistance alleles. As costs of Bt resistance are common, refuges of non-Bt host plants can delay resistance not only by providing susceptible individuals to mate with resistant individuals, but also by selecting against resistance. Because costs typically vary across host plants, refuges with host plants that magnify costs or make them less recessive could enhance resistance management. Limited understanding of the physiological mechanisms causing fitness costs, however, hampers attempts to increase costs. In several major cotton pests including pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella), resistance to Cry1Ac cotton is associated with mutations altering cadherin proteins that bind this toxin in susceptible larvae. Here we report that the concentration of gossypol, a cotton defensive chemical, was higher in pink bollworm larvae with cadherin resistance alleles than in larvae lacking such alleles. Adding gossypol to the larval diet decreased larval weight and survival, and increased the fitness cost affecting larval growth, but not survival. Across cadherin genotypes, the cost affecting larval growth increased as the gossypol concentration of larvae increased. These results suggest that increased accumulation of plant defensive chemicals may contribute to fitness costs associated with resistance to Bt toxins

Redistribution of Actin during Assembly and Reassembly of the Contractile Ring in Grasshopper Spermatocytes

Cytokinesis in animal cells requires the assembly of an actomyosin contractile ring to cleave the cell. The ring is highly dynamic; it assembles and disassembles during each cell cleavage, resulting in the recurrent redistribution of actin. To investigate this process in grasshopper spermatocytes, we mechanically manipulated the spindle to induce actin redistribution into ectopic contractile rings, around reassembled lateral spindles. To enhance visualization of actin, we folded the spindle at its equator to convert the remnants of the partially assembled ring into a concentrated source of actin. Filaments from the disintegrating ring aligned along reorganizing spindle microtubules, suggesting that their incorporation into the new ring was mediated by microtubules. We tracked incorporation by speckling actin filaments with Qdots and/or labeling them with Alexa 488-phalloidin. The pattern of movement implied that actin was transported along spindle microtubules, before entering the ring. By double-labeling dividing cells, we imaged actin filaments moving along microtubules near the contractile ring. Together, our findings indicate that in one mechanism of actin redistribution, actin filaments are transported along spindle microtubule tracks in a plus-end–directed fashion. After reaching the spindle midzone, the filaments could be transported laterally to the ring. Notably, actin filaments undergo a dramatic trajectory change as they enter the ring, implying the existence of a pulling force. Two other mechanisms of actin redistribution, cortical flow and de novo assembly, are also present in grasshopper, suggesting that actin converges at the nascent contractile ring from diffuse sources within the cytoplasm and cortex, mediated by spindle microtubules