Truth or precision? Some reflections on the economists’ failure to predict the financial crisis

The failure of professional economic forecasters to predict the financial crises has led many to question the credibility of modern economics as a reliable foundation for economic policy. If economists were unable to foresee so big a crisis, how can they be trusted to cure or prevent it? Several accounts of this failure exist. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be drawn from the wisdom of a short list of past and present economists: Hayek, Neville Keynes, Mankiw, Tinbergen, Maynard Keynes and Lucas. The glue to keep such an odd bunch together is the distinction between truth and precision provided by science historian Ted Porter

Dental service patterns among private and public adult patients in Australia

Background While the majority of dental care in Australia is provided in the private sector those patients who attend for public care remain a public health focus due to their socioeconomic disadvantage. The aims of this study were to compare dental service profiles provided to patients at private and public clinics, controlling for age, sex, reason for visit and income. Methods Data were collected in 2004–06, using a three-stage, stratified clustered sample of Australians aged 15+ years, involving a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), oral examination and mailed questionnaire. Analysis was restricted to those who responded to the CATI. Results A total of 14,123 adults responded to the CATI (49% response) of whom 5,505 (44% of those interviewed) agreed to undergo an oral epidemiological examination. Multivariate analysis controlling for age, sex, reason for visit and income showed that persons attending public clinics had higher odds [Odds ratio, 95%CI] of extraction (1.69, 1.26–2.28), but lower odds of receiving oral prophylaxis (0.50, 0.38–0.66) and crown/bridge services (0.34, 0.13–0.91) compared to the reference category of private clinics. Conclusion Socio-economically disadvantaged persons who face barriers to accessing dental care in the private sector suffer further oral health disadvantage from a pattern of services received at public clinics that has more emphasis on extraction of teeth and less emphasis on preventive and maintenance care.David S Brennan, Liana Luzzi and Kaye F Roberts-Thomso

Stable Genetic Effects on Symptoms of Alcohol Abuse and Dependence from Adolescence into Early Adulthood

Relatively little is known about how genetic influences on alcohol abuse and dependence (AAD) change with age. We examined the change in influence of genetic and environmental factors which explain symptoms of AAD from adolescence into early adulthood. Symptoms of AAD were assessed using the four AAD screening questions of the CAGE inventory. Data were obtained up to six times by self-report questionnaires for 8,398 twins from the Netherlands Twin Register aged between 15 and 32 years. Longitudinal genetic simplex modeling was performed with Mx. Results showed that shared environmental influences were present for age 15–17 (57%) and age 18–20 (18%). Unique environmental influences gained importance over time, contributing 15% of the variance at age 15–17 and 48% at age 30–32. At younger ages, unique environmental influences were largely age-specific, while at later ages, age-specific influences became less important. Genetic influences on AAD symptoms over age could be accounted for by one factor, with the relative influence of this factor differing across ages. Genetic influences increased from 28% at age 15–17 to 58% at age 21–23 and remained high in magnitude thereafter. These results are in line with a developmentally stable hypothesis that predicts that a single set of genetic risk factors acts on symptoms of AAD from adolescence into young adulthood

Acquisition of Human-Type Receptor Binding Specificity by New H5N1 Influenza Virus Sublineages during Their Emergence in Birds in Egypt

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 is currently widespread in Asia, Europe, and Africa, with 60% mortality in humans. In particular, since 2009 Egypt has unexpectedly had the highest number of human cases of H5N1 virus infection, with more than 50% of the cases worldwide, but the basis for this high incidence has not been elucidated. A change in receptor binding affinity of the viral hemagglutinin (HA) from α2,3- to α2,6-linked sialic acid (SA) is thought to be necessary for H5N1 virus to become pandemic. In this study, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of H5N1 viruses isolated between 2006 and 2009 in Egypt. The phylogenetic results showed that recent human isolates clustered disproportionally into several new H5 sublineages suggesting that their HAs have changed their receptor specificity. Using reverse genetics, we found that these H5 sublineages have acquired an enhanced binding affinity for α2,6 SA in combination with residual affinity for α2,3 SA, and identified the amino acid mutations that produced this new receptor specificity. Recombinant H5N1 viruses with a single mutation at HA residue 192 or a double mutation at HA residues 129 and 151 had increased attachment to and infectivity in the human lower respiratory tract but not in the larynx. These findings correlated with enhanced virulence of the mutant viruses in mice. Interestingly, these H5 viruses, with increased affinity to α2,6 SA, emerged during viral diversification in bird populations and subsequently spread to humans. Our findings suggested that emergence of new H5 sublineages with α2,6 SA specificity caused a subsequent increase in human H5N1 influenza virus infections in Egypt, and provided data for understanding the virus's pandemic potential

Heroin versus cocaine: opposite choice as a function of context but not of drug history in the rat

Rationale Previous studies have shown that rats trained to self-administer heroin and cocaine exhibit opposite preferences, as a function of setting, when tested in a choice paradigm. Rats tested at home prefer heroin to cocaine whereas rats tested outside the home prefer cocaine to heroin. Here we investigated whether drug history would influence subsequent drug preference in distinct settings. Based on a theoretical model of drug-setting interaction, we predicted that regardless of drug history rats would prefer heroin at home and cocaine outside the home. Methods Rats with double-lumen catheters were first trained to self-administer either heroin (25 μg/kg) or cocaine (400 μg/kg) for 12 consecutive sessions. Twenty-six rats were housed in the self-administration chambers (thus, they were tested at home) whereas 30 rats lived in distinct home cages and were transferred to self-administration chambers only for the self-administration session (thus, they were tested outside the home). The rats were then allowed to choose repeatedly between heroin and cocaine within the same session for 7 sessions. Results Regardless of the training drug, the rats tested outside the home preferred cocaine to heroin whereas the rats tested at home preferred heroin to cocaine. There was no correlation between drug preference and drug intake during the training phase. Conclusion Drug preferences were powerfully influenced by the setting but, quite surprisingly, not by drug history. This suggests that, under certain conditions, associative learning processes and drug-induced neuroplastic adaptations play a minor role in shaping individual preferences for one drug or the other

Big data, qualitative style:A breadth‑and‑depth method for working with large amounts of secondary qualitative data

Archival storage of data sets from qualitative studies presents opportunities for combining small-scale data sets for reuse/secondary analysis. In this paper, we outline our approach to combining multiple qualitative data sets and explain why working with a corpus of 'big qual' data is a worthwhile endeavour. We present a new approach that iteratively combines recursive surface thematic mapping and in-depth interpretive work. Our breadth-and-depth method involves a series of steps: 1) surveying archived data sets to create a new assemblage of data; 2) recursive surface thematic mapping in dialogue with 3) preliminary ‘test pit’ analysis, remapping and repetition of preliminary analysis; and 4) in-depth analysis of the type that is familiar to most qualitative researchers. In so doing, we show how qualitative researchers can conduct ‘big qual’ analysis while retaining the distinctive order of knowledge about social processes that is the hallmark of rigorous qualitative research, with its integrity of attention to nuanced context and detail

Towards the synthesis of guanidinate- and amidinate-bridged dimers of Mn and Ni

Reactions of Cp2M (Cp = cyclopentadienyl, M = Mn, Ni) with lithium amidinates and guanidinates are reported. The highly oxophilic nature of Mn leads to the isolation of the interstitial oxide Mn4O(MeN···CH···NMe)6 (4) in preference to the intended paddle-wheel homodimer Mn2(MeN···CH···NMe)4 when employing the sterically uncongested amidinate [MeN···CH···NMe]– ligand. In contrast, an analogous reaction using Cp2Ni yielded Ni2(MeN···CH···NMe)4 (5). The use of monoprotic guanidinate ligands also gave contrasting results for Mn and Ni. In the first case, the highly unusual spirocycle Mn{μ-NC(NMe2)2}4Li2·3THF (6) was produced in low yield. For M = Ni, use of the [hpp]– (1,3,4,6,7,8-hexahydro-2H-pyrimido[1,2-a]pyrimidinate) ligand gives results comparable with the synthesis of 5, with Ni2(hpp)4 (7) isolated. In contrast to recent data obtained using Cp2Cr, the guanidinate ligands do not sequester coformed CpLi. Density functional theory analysis corroborates the view that the intermetal distance in each of the reported dinickel paddle-wheel complexes (2.4846(8) and 2.3753(5) Å in 5 and 7 respectively) is defined by the geometric parameters of the bidentate ligands and that intermetal bonding is not present.This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [grant number EP/P504856/1] and the Leverhulme Trust.This is the accepted manuscript. The final published version is available at http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=CH14271