478 research outputs found
Approaches to Daily Monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Italy
Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March. In the current study we analyzed public data from the four most affected Italian regions. We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. We observed a monotonic decrease of Rt over time in all regions, and the peak of incident cases ~2 weeks after the implementation of the first strict containment measures. Our results show that phenomenological approaches may be useful to monitor the epidemic growth in its initial phases and suggest that costly and disruptive public health controls might have had a positive impact in limiting the Sars-Cov-2 spread in Northern Italy
Recent rapid changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of West Nile Neuro-invasive Disease in Italy
Developing an integrated microsimulation model for the impact of fiscal policies on child health in Europe: the example of childhood obesity in Italy
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The Asymmetric Effect of Diffusion Processes: Risk Sharing and Contagion
In this paper we provide a general characterization of diffusion processes, allowing us to analyze both risk-sharing and contagion effects at the same time. We illustrate the relevance of our theory with reference to the subprime mortgage crisis and more in general to the processes of securitization and interbank linkages. We show that interdependencies in real and financial assets are beneficial from a social point of view when the economic environment is favorable and detrimental when the economic environment deteriorates. In the latter case, private incentives are such that too many linkages are formed, with respect to what is socially desirable. The risk of contagion increases the volatility of the outcome and thus reduces the ability of the financial networks to provide risk-sharing. Our analysis suggests that a likely major explanation of the subprime mortgage crisis is the process of securitization itself, in addition to the absence of transparency about the characteristics of the underlying assets that the multiple layers of financial intermediation fostered, as commonly claimed. This may call for a different emphasis on the role of public intervention. While a goal to stabilize the economy in good times should be to disrupt the channels that bring contagion, that is a positive correlation in the returns, in a period of worsening economic conditions our analysis suggests regulatory intervention aimed at disconnecting the economy at crucial nodes. Moreover, we show that policy interventions should be aimed at rescuing institutions, but not their managers. Diminishing the cost of default actually increases the inefficiency due to the divergence between the social and the individual optimum
Firm Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Labour Share
Using a static model of firm behaviour with imperfect competition on the product and
labour markets, we quantify the effect of firm heterogeneity in total factor productivity, product
and labour market power, wages and output prices on the aggregate labour share. In particular,
we suggest a new decomposition of the aggregate labour share in terms of the first moments of
the joint distribution of these variables across firms, providing a bridge between the micro and
the macro approach to functional distribution. We provide an application of our method to the
UK manufacturing sector, using firm-level data for the period 1998-2014. The analysis confirms
that heterogeneity matters: in an economy populated only by representative firms, the labour
share would be 10 percentage points lower. However, and contrary to a common narrative
focussing on increasing disparities between firms, the observed decline in the aggregate labour
share over the period is driven entirely by the decline in the labour share of the representative
firm, mostly due to an increasing disconnect between average productivity and real wages.
Changes in the dispersion of firm-level variables have contributed to slightly contain this
decline
Firm heterogeneity and the aggregate labour share
We propose a model-based decomposition method for the aggregate labour share in terms of the first moments of the joint distribution of total factor productivity, market power, wages and prices, and apply it to UK manufacturing using firm-level data for 1998?2014. Contrary to a narrative focussing on increasing disparities between firms, the observed decline in the aggregate labour share over the period is driven entirely by the decline in the labour share of the representative firm, mostly due to an increasing disconnect between average productivity and real wages. Changes in the dispersion of firm-level variables have contributed to slightly contain this decline
Prognostic Utility of the Gleason Grading System Revisions and Histopathological Factors Beyond Gleason Grade
Applied causal inference methods for sequential mediators
BACKGROUND: Mediation analysis aims at estimating to what extent the effect of an exposure on an outcome is explained by a set of mediators on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. The total effect of the exposure on the outcome can be decomposed into an indirect effect, i.e. the effect explained by the mediators jointly, and a direct effect, i.e. the effect unexplained by the mediators. However finer decompositions are possible in presence of independent or sequential mediators. METHODS: We review four statistical methods to analyse multiple sequential mediators, the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the inverse probability weighting approach, the imputation approach and the extended imputation approach. These approaches are compared and implemented using a case-study with the aim to investigate the mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and infant respiratory infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing in the Ninfea birth cohort. RESULTS: Using the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the direct effect of maternal depression or anxiety in pregnancy is equal to a 59% (95% CI: 27%,94%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing and the mediated effect through adverse reproductive outcomes is equal to a 3% (95% CI: -6%,12%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing. When including infant lower respiratory infections in the mediation pathway, the direct effect decreases to 57% (95% CI: 25%,92%) and the indirect effect increases to 5% (95% CI: -5%,15%). The estimates of the effects obtained using the weighting and the imputation approaches are similar. The extended imputation approach suggests that the small joint indirect effect through adverse reproductive outcomes and lower respiratory infections is due entirely to the contribution of infant lower respiratory infections, and not to an increased prevalence of adverse reproductive outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The four methods revealed similar results of small mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and early respiratory tract infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing. The choice of the method depends on what is the effect of main interest, the type of the variables involved in the analysis (binary, categorical, count or continuous) and the confidence in specifying the models for the exposure, the mediators and the outcome. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01764-w
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