Switching-regime regression for modeling and predicting a stock market return

It has been observed that certain economic and financial variables commonly exhibit switching behavior depending on their magnitude. This phenomenon in general cannot be naturally captured by the linear regression (LR), which assumes a linear relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables. To decipher investor behavior more appropriately by accounting for this observation, a switching-regime regression (SRR) is proposed and applied to the S&P 500 market return with respect to seven explanatory variables. It is shown that, compared with LR, the new regression results in a significantly improved adjusted R2, increasing from less than 4 % to over 50 %. In addition, SRR yields better out-of-sample forecasting performance, besides that the fitted values from the new regression even resemble the dip during the 2008 financial crisis, while those from LR do not. The study thus indicates that the switching-regime regression improves significantly the statistical properties including the goodness of fit as well as conforms more to investor behavior theory

Peptide vaccines for hematological malignancies: a missed promise?

Despite the crucial aid that newly developed target therapies are providing to chemotherapy and stem cell transplant, the cure for many hematological malignancies is still an unmet need. Although available therapies are able to induce an effective debulking of the tumor, most of the time, an insidious minimal residual disease survives current treatments and it is responsible for an immediate or delayed relapse. Peptide-derived antitumor vaccines have been developed with the idea that an artificially "educated" immune system may exert an active specific antitumor response able to control and ultimately eradicate underlying post-treatment residual disease. This review will summarize current knowledge of peptide vaccines for hematological malignancies, trying to analyze promises and pitfalls of a safe and intelligent tool that after many years from its first appearance has not yet established its potential role as alternative immune mediated therapeutic approach for hematopoietic tumors