The Case for a Countercyclical Rule-based Fiscal Regime

We build a general equilibrium model of a small open economy, with the purpose of analyzing the effects of a countercyclical rule-based fiscal regime, which corresponds to a stylized version of the structural balance in place in Chile. The economy exports a domestically-produced good and one natural resource (commodity), which is partly state-owned, generating income to the government. We analyze how shocks are transmitted to the economy in the presence of this fiscal rule by introducing shocks to government spending, taxes, and the price of the natural resource. In the last shock, we compare our structural rule with a case where the budget is always balanced. The results make a strong case for the adoption of the latter in other commodity exporting economies.open economy, fiscal policy, rule of thumb consumers, government spending.

How Effective is Government Spending in a Small Open Economy with Distortionary Taxes

We build a general equilibrium model of a small open economy, which includes rule-of-thumb consumers, and staggeredd prices and wages, as well as distortionary taxes. The analysis of government spending based on the responses to a government spending shock under three different rules and the sensitivity of several impact multipliers to alternative calibrations. The effect of the shock on consumption and GDP depends on the price elasticity of net exports; the share of rule-of-thumb consumers and domestic goods in the government basket; and finally, the fiscal rule in place. Indeed the response of consumption is more persistent with the rule that adjust spending to close the debt-financed deficit than with the other two rules.open economy, fiscal multiplier, rule of thumb consumers, government spending

Labor Markets and Institutions: An Overview

This paper reviews the issues and papers presented at the VII Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile on Labor Market and Institutions, that will soon be compiled in a book by the same name. It discusses the origins of labor regulations, which are many times not associated to specific market failures. It measures its effects on labor markets, growth and inequality. Effects that vary by type of regulation, the context in which they are applied and the degree of enforcement. Finally, the paper presents work how regulations should be designed in order to generate the appropriate incentives for both firms and workers. The papers reviewed are potentially very useful in the understanding the type of regulation that should be implemented, when and how.

Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks in Chile and Colombia

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a peso-for-peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to the government's net tax revenues, providing a good notion of the incidence of fiscal policy shocks in both countries. When public finances are under control, as they are in Chile, fiscal policy seems to be more effective than when they lack stability and credibility, as seems to be the case of Colombia since the mid nineties.

IDENTIFYING FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN CHILE AND COLOMBIA

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a pesofor- peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to the government's net tax revenues, providing a good notion of the incidence of fiscal policy shocks in both countries. When public finances are under control, as they are in Chile, fiscal policy seems to be more effective than when they lack stability and credibility, as seems to be the case of Colombia since the mid nineties.Identification, Fiscal Policy, SVAR, SVEC

Labor Market Rigidity and Structural Shocks: An Open-Economy Approach for International Comparisons

We construct performance-based measures of labor market rigidity considering an open economy framework. We derive and estimate an indicator that depends exclusively on the theoretical measure of unions' bargaining power, with which we rank a sample of 18 heterogeneous countries. The indicator is obtained from unemployment persistence to structural shocks identified using a SVAR with longrun restrictions. We find that Korea, Hong Kong, Chile and the US are relatively flexible, while Germany, Sweden, Spain and Colombia are among the most rigid labor markets. Our index shows high correlation with labor market performance and institutional regulation variables, mainly associated to union representation.

Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1

This paper uses a DSGE model to examine whether including the exchange rate explicitly in the central bank’s policy reaction function can improve macroeconomic performance. It is found that including an element of exchange rate smoothing in the policy reaction function is helpful both for financially robust advanced economies and for financially vulnerable emerging economies in handling risk premium shocks. As long as the weight placed on exchange rate smoothing is relatively small, the effects on inflation and output volatility in the event of demand and cost-push shocks are minimal. Financially vulnerable emerging economies are especially likely to benefit from some exchange rate smoothing because of the perverse impact of exchange rate movements on activity.Inflation targeting, monetary policy, exchange rate

Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters:Prudence and Procyclicality

This paper compares welfare levels under alternative fiscal rules for small open, commodity exporter, economies whose fiscal income varies with the world commodity price (in a dynamic, stochastic, and general equilibrium setting). Between the extremes of a procyclical balanced budget policy and an acyclical spending rule, there is a continuum of rules. Thus, the best degree of spending stabilization is found. The acylical rule benefits households that do not enjoy access to capital markets by providing a financial cushion that they themselves cannot provide, boosting their mean consumption. However, households that enjoy full access to capital markets suffer under this rule, since the government reduces their role in smoothing consumption and accumulating assets.Fiscal rules, welfare, small open economy, rule-of-thumb consumers

Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes

This paper uses a DSGE model to examine whether including the exchange rate explicitly in the central bank’s policy reaction function can improve macroeconomic performance. It finds that including an element of exchange rate smoothing in the policy reaction function is helpful for handling risk premium shocks by either financially robust advanced economies or financially vulnerable emerging economies. As long as the weight placed on exchange rate smoothing is relatively small, the effects on inflation and output volatility in the event of demand and cost-push shocks are minimal. Financially vulnerable emerging economies are especially likely to benefit from some exchange rate smoothing because of the perverse impact of exchange rate movements on economic activity.

Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile

A price equation based on a model of imperfect competition was estimated using quarterly data for Chile from 1986:1 to 2001:1. The estimation includes the first difference of the dependent variable following the literature on the estimation of linear quadratic adjustment cost (LQAC) models, when the target and some of the driving variables follow I(2) processes. The equation is used to generate out-of-sample inflation forecast, of a narrower-than the-CPI price index. We can conclude from the estimation results: i) exchange-rate pass-through depends positively on economic activity (output gap) explaining why pass-through has been so low in recent years in Chile. In other words, a negative output gap has compensated the inflationary impact of exchange-rate depreciation; ii) productivity reduces unit labor costs and inflation; iii) wages and foreign prices are positively related to inflation; iv) Finally, expected inflation acceleration is significant, confirming that expectations matter determining inflation.