Applicability and limitations of sensitivity analyses for wildlife management

Sensitivity analyses that assess the impact of changing vital rates on population growth have been widely used to guide conservation. If implemented with caution, they can provide guidance as to which management actions will optimize conservation outcomes. In this review, we first focus on the commonly used proportional sensitivity and elasticity analyses that change each vital rate by equal proportions, to assess their importance for wildlife management. These types of analyses also feature potential pitfalls and limitations, including (1) Each vital rate is usually on a different scale. Without appropriate scaling this can result in a flawed evaluation of the importance of vital rates. (2) Vital rates rarely change at equal proportions in nature. This can bring about misguided management recommendations on the basis of vital rate changes that are unrealistic. (3) Proportional sensitivity analyses often do not reflect the feasibility and effectiveness of altering particular demographic parameters. Consequently, relying solely on proportional sensitivities or elasticities can lead to flawed evaluation of the importance of vital rates and thus prioritization of management options that are unrealistic or ineffective. We outline alternative approaches, which involve assessing the impact of threats, the relative demography of stable and declining populations, the effect of observable variation of vital rates on population viability, and the potential effects of feasible management scenarios. Synthesis and applications. Sensitivity analyses are useful tools to guide wildlife management. If implemented and interpreted with care, sensitivity analyses can identify key demographic parameters and threats to population viability. However, their usefulness is limited, when applied without careful evaluation as to whether the perturbations evaluated are realistic, feasible and meet the need of wildlife managers. We caution against the over-reliance on proportional sensitivity and elasticity analyses and point to alternative approaches, including life-stage simulation analysis, vital rate sensitivity analysis or manual perturbations

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife

Removing exogenous information using pedigree data

Management of certain populations requires the preservation of its pure genetic background. When, for different reasons, undesired alleles are introduced, the original genetic conformation must be recovered. The present study tested, through computer simulations, the power of recovery (the ability for removing the foreign information) from genealogical data. Simulated scenarios comprised different numbers of exogenous individuals taking partofthe founder population anddifferent numbers of unmanaged generations before the removal program started. Strategies were based on variables arising from classical pedigree analyses such as founders? contribution and partial coancestry. The ef?ciency of the different strategies was measured as the proportion of native genetic information remaining in the population. Consequences on the inbreeding and coancestry levels of the population were also evaluated. Minimisation of the exogenous founders? contributions was the most powerful method, removing the largest amount of genetic information in just one generation.However, as a side effect, it led to the highest values of inbreeding. Scenarios with a large amount of initial exogenous alleles (i.e. high percentage of non native founders), or many generations of mixing became very dif?cult to recover, pointing out the importance of being careful about introgression events in populatio

Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: Lessons from a domestic mammal population

The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, Ne ), as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, fe , effective number of founder genomes, fg , and effective number of non-founder genomes, fne ). Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that Ne decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for fe was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that fe was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, fg , the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD) which was obtained from estimates of fg , decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of fne from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of fe to fg indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, fne was much higher than fe , thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for fe > fne . The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity

Evaluating anthropogenic threats to endangered killer whales to inform effective recovery plans

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record.Understanding cumulative effects of multiple threats is key to guiding effective management to conserve endangered species. The critically endangered, Southern Resident killer whale population of the northeastern Pacific Ocean provides a data-rich case to explore anthropogenic threats on population viability. Primary threats include: limitation of preferred prey, Chinook salmon; anthropogenic noise and disturbance, which reduce foraging efficiency; and high levels of stored contaminants, including PCBs. We constructed a population viability analysis to explore possible demographic trajectories and the relative importance of anthropogenic stressors. The population is fragile, with no growth projected under current conditions, and decline expected if new or increased threats are imposed. Improvements in fecundity and calf survival are needed to reach a conservation objective of 2.3% annual population growth. Prey limitation is the most important factor affecting population growth. However, to meet recovery targets through prey management alone, Chinook abundance would have to be sustained near the highest levels since the 1970s. The most optimistic mitigation of noise and contaminants would make the difference between a declining and increasing population, but would be insufficient to reach recovery targets. Reducing acoustic disturbance by 50% combined with increasing Chinook by 15% would allow the population to reach 2.3% growth

History and structure of the closed pedigreed population of Icelandic Sheepdogs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dog breeds lose genetic diversity because of high selection pressure. Breeding policies aim to minimize kinship and therefore maintain genetic diversity. However, policies like mean kinship and optimal contributions, might be impractical. Cluster analysis of kinship can elucidate the population structure, since this method divides the population in clusters of related individuals. Kinship-based analyses have been carried out on the entire Icelandic Sheepdog population, a sheep-herding breed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Analyses showed that despite increasing population size and deliberately transferring dogs, considerable genetic diversity has been lost. When cluster analysis was based on kinships calculated seven generation backwards, as performed in previous studies, results differ markedly from those based on calculations going back to the founder-population, and thus invalidate recommendations based on previous research. When calculated back to the founder-population, kinship-based clustering reveals the distribution of genetic diversity, similarly to strategies using mean kinship.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although the base population consisted of 36 Icelandic Sheepdog founders, the current diversity is equivalent to that of only 2.2 equally contributing founders with no loss of founder alleles in descendants. The maximum attainable diversity is 4.7, unlikely achievable in a non-supervised breeding population like the Icelandic Sheepdog. Cluster analysis of kinship coefficients can provide a supporting tool to assess the distribution of available genetic diversity for captive population management.</p

Impacts of urbanisation on the native avifauna of Perth, Western Australia

Urban development either eliminates, or severely fragments, native vegetation, and therefore alters the distribution and abundance of species that depend on it for habitat. We assessed the impact of urban development on bird communities at 121 sites in and around Perth, Western Australia. Based on data from community surveys, at least 83 % of 65 landbirds were found to be dependent, in some way, on the presence of native vegetation. For three groups of species defined by specific patterns of habitat use (bushland birds), there were sufficient data to show that species occurrences declined as the landscape changed from variegated to fragmented to relictual, according to the percentage of vegetation cover remaining. For three other groups (urban birds) species occurrences were either unrelated to the amount of vegetation cover, or increased as vegetation cover declined. In order to maximise the chances of retaining avian diversity when planning for broad-scale changes in land-use (i.e. clearing native vegetation for housing or industrial development), land planners should aim for a mosaic of variegated urban landscapes (\u3e60 % vegetation retention) set amongst the fragmented and relictual urban landscapes (% vegetation retention) that are characteristic of most cities and their suburbs. Management actions for conserving remnant biota within fragmented urban landscapes should concentrate on maintaining the integrity and quality of remnant native vegetation, and aim at building awareness among the general public of the conservation value of remnant native vegetation

An Integrated Decision Making Approach for Adaptive Shared Control of Mobility Assistance Robots

© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Mobility assistance robots provide support to elderly or patients during walking. The design of a safe and intuitive assistance behavior is one of the major challenges in this context. We present an integrated approach for the context-specific, on-line adaptation of the assistance level of a rollator-type mobility assistance robot by gain-scheduling of low-level robot control parameters. A human-inspired decision-making model, the drift-diffusion Model, is introduced as the key principle to gain-schedule parameters and with this to adapt the provided robot assistance in order to achieve a human-like assistive behavior. The mobility assistance robot is designed to provide (a) cognitive assistance to help the user following a desired path towards a predefined destination as well as (b) sensorial assistance to avoid collisions with obstacles while allowing for an intentional approach of them. Further, the robot observes the user long-term performance and fatigue to adapt the overall level of (c) physical assistance provided. For each type of assistance a decision-making problem is formulated that affects different low-level control parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated in technical validation experiments. Moreover, the proposed approach is evaluated in a user study with 35 elderly persons. Obtained results indicate that the proposed gain-scheduling technique incorporating ideas of human decision-making models shows a general high potential for the application in adaptive shared control of mobility assistance robots

Living on the Edge: Assessing the Extinction Risk of Critically Endangered Bonelli’s Eagle in Italy

Background: The population of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. Methodology/Principal Findings: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli’s eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity), and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population’s fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli’s eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate l.1). In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. Conclusions/Significance: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species in Italy, measures are urgently needed to decrease both adult mortality due to poaching and juvenile mortality due to nest plundering, the top ranking mortality causes.PLL is supported by a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral grant of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (reference JCI-2011–09588)

The Danger of Having All Your Eggs in One Basket—Winter Crash of the Re-Introduced Przewalski's Horses in the Mongolian Gobi

Large mammals re-introduced into harsh and unpredictable environments are vulnerable to stochastic effects, particularly in times of global climate change. The Mongolian Gobi is home to several rare large ungulates such as re-introduced Przewalski's horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) and Asiatic wild asses (Equus hemionus), but also to a millennium-old semi-nomadic livestock herding culture