The impact of population heterogeneity on risk estimation in genetic counseling

BACKGROUND: Genetic counseling has been an important tool for evaluating and communicating disease susceptibility for decades, and it has been applied to predict risks for a wide class of hereditary disorders. Most diseases are complex in nature and are affected by multiple genes and environmental conditions; it is highly likely that DNA tests alone do not define all the genetic factors responsible for a disease, so that persons classified into the same risk group by DNA testing actually could have different disease susceptibilities. Ignorance of population heterogeneity may lead to biased risk estimates, whereas additional information on population heterogeneity may improve the precision of such estimates. METHODS: Although DNA tests are widely used, few studies have investigated the accuracy of the predicted risks. We examined the impact of population heterogeneity on predicted disease risks by simulation of three different heterogeneity scenarios and studied the precision and accuracy of the risks estimated from a logistic regression model that ignored population heterogeneity. Moreover, we also incorporated information about population heterogeneity into our original model and investigated the resulting improvement in the accuracy of risk estimation. RESULTS: We found that heterogeneity in one or more categories could lead to biased estimates not only in the "contaminated" categories but also in other homogeneous categories. Incorporating information about population heterogeneity into the original model greatly improved the accuracy of risk estimation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings imply that without thorough knowledge about genetic basis of the disease, risks estimated from DNA tests may be misleading. Caution should be taken when evaluating the predicted risks obtained from genetic counseling. On the other hand, the improved accuracy of risk estimates after incorporating population heterogeneity information into the model did point out a promising direction for genetic counseling, since more and more new techniques are being invented and disease etiology is being better understood

Physiological modeling, tight glycemic control, and the ICU clinician: what are models and how can they affect practice?

Critically ill patients are highly variable in their response to care and treatment. This variability and the search for improved outcomes have led to a significant increase in the use of protocolized care to reduce variability in care. However, protocolized care does not address the variability of outcome due to inter- and intra-patient variability, both in physiological state, and the response to disease and treatment. This lack of patient-specificity defines the opportunity for patient-specific approaches to diagnosis, care, and patient management, which are complementary to, and fit within, protocolized approaches

Heterogeneities in leishmania infantum infection : using skin parasite burdens to identify highly infectious dogs

Background: The relationships between heterogeneities in host infection and infectiousness (transmission to arthropod vectors) can provide important insights for disease management. Here, we quantify heterogeneities in Leishmania infantum parasite numbers in reservoir and non-reservoir host populations, and relate this to their infectiousness during natural infection. Tissue parasite number was evaluated as a potential surrogate marker of host transmission potential. Methods: Parasite numbers were measured by qPCR in bone marrow and ear skin biopsies of 82 dogs and 34 crab-eating foxes collected during a longitudinal study in Amazon Brazil, for which previous data was available on infectiousness (by xenodiagnosis) and severity of infection. Results: Parasite numbers were highly aggregated both between samples and between individuals. In dogs, total parasite abundance and relative numbers in ear skin compared to bone marrow increased with the duration and severity of infection. Infectiousness to the sandfly vector was associated with high parasite numbers; parasite number in skin was the best predictor of being infectious. Crab-eating foxes, which typically present asymptomatic infection and are non-infectious, had parasite numbers comparable to those of non-infectious dogs. Conclusions: Skin parasite number provides an indirect marker of infectiousness, and could allow targeted control particularly of highly infectious dogs

Support and Assessment for Fall Emergency Referrals (SAFER 1) trial protocol. Computerised on-scene decision support for emergency ambulance staff to assess and plan care for older people who have fallen: evaluation of costs and benefits using a pragmatic cluster randomised trial

Background: Many emergency ambulance calls are for older people who have fallen. As half of them are left at home, a community-based response may often be more appropriate than hospital attendance. The SAFER 1 trial will assess the costs and benefits of a new healthcare technology - hand-held computers with computerised clinical decision support (CCDS) software - to help paramedics decide who needs hospital attendance, and who can be safely left at home with referral to community falls services. Methods/Design: Pragmatic cluster randomised trial with a qualitative component. We shall allocate 72 paramedics ('clusters') at random between receiving the intervention and a control group delivering care as usual, of whom we expect 60 to complete the trial. Patients are eligible if they are aged 65 or older, live in the study area but not in residential care, and are attended by a study paramedic following an emergency call for a fall. Seven to 10 days after the index fall we shall offer patients the opportunity to opt out of further follow up. Continuing participants will receive questionnaires after one and 6 months, and we shall monitor their routine clinical data for 6 months. We shall interview 20 of these patients in depth. We shall conduct focus groups or semi-structured interviews with paramedics and other stakeholders. The primary outcome is the interval to the first subsequent reported fall (or death). We shall analyse this and other measures of outcome, process and cost by 'intention to treat'. We shall analyse qualitative data thematically. Discussion: Since the SAFER 1 trial received funding in August 2006, implementation has come to terms with ambulance service reorganisation and a new national electronic patient record in England. In response to these hurdles the research team has adapted the research design, including aspects of the intervention, to meet the needs of the ambulance services. In conclusion this complex emergency care trial will provide rigorous evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of CCDS for paramedics in the care of older people who have fallen

Representation of Time-Varying Stimuli by a Network Exhibiting Oscillations on a Faster Time Scale

Sensory processing is associated with gamma frequency oscillations (30–80 Hz) in sensory cortices. This raises the question whether gamma oscillations can be directly involved in the representation of time-varying stimuli, including stimuli whose time scale is longer than a gamma cycle. We are interested in the ability of the system to reliably distinguish different stimuli while being robust to stimulus variations such as uniform time-warp. We address this issue with a dynamical model of spiking neurons and study the response to an asymmetric sawtooth input current over a range of shape parameters. These parameters describe how fast the input current rises and falls in time. Our network consists of inhibitory and excitatory populations that are sufficient for generating oscillations in the gamma range. The oscillations period is about one-third of the stimulus duration. Embedded in this network is a subpopulation of excitatory cells that respond to the sawtooth stimulus and a subpopulation of cells that respond to an onset cue. The intrinsic gamma oscillations generate a temporally sparse code for the external stimuli. In this code, an excitatory cell may fire a single spike during a gamma cycle, depending on its tuning properties and on the temporal structure of the specific input; the identity of the stimulus is coded by the list of excitatory cells that fire during each cycle. We quantify the properties of this representation in a series of simulations and show that the sparseness of the code makes it robust to uniform warping of the time scale. We find that resetting of the oscillation phase at stimulus onset is important for a reliable representation of the stimulus and that there is a tradeoff between the resolution of the neural representation of the stimulus and robustness to time-warp. Author Summary Sensory processing of time-varying stimuli, such as speech, is associated with high-frequency oscillatory cortical activity, the functional significance of which is still unknown. One possibility is that the oscillations are part of a stimulus-encoding mechanism. Here, we investigate a computational model of such a mechanism, a spiking neuronal network whose intrinsic oscillations interact with external input (waveforms simulating short speech segments in a single acoustic frequency band) to encode stimuli that extend over a time interval longer than the oscillation's period. The network implements a temporally sparse encoding, whose robustness to time warping and neuronal noise we quantify. To our knowledge, this study is the first to demonstrate that a biophysically plausible model of oscillations occurring in the processing of auditory input may generate a representation of signals that span multiple oscillation cycles.National Science Foundation (DMS-0211505); Burroughs Wellcome Fund; U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Researc

Silica burial enhanced by iron limitation in oceanic upwelling margins

In large swaths of the ocean, primary production by diatoms may be limited by the availability of silica, which in turn limits the biological uptake of carbon dioxide. The burial of biogenic silica in the form of opal is the main sink of marine silicon. Opal burial occurs in equal parts in iron-limited open-ocean provinces and upwelling margins, especially the eastern Pacific upwelling zone. However, it is unclear why opal burial is so efficient in this margin. Here we measure fluxes of biogenic material, concentrations of diatom-bound iron and silicon isotope ratios using sediment traps and a sediment core from the Gulf of California upwelling margin. In the sediment trap material, we find that periods of intense upwelling are associated with transient iron limitation that results in a high export of silica relative to organic carbon. A similar correlation between enhanced silica burial and iron limitation is evident in the sediment core, which spans the past 26,000 years. A global compilation also indicates that hotspots of silicon burial in the ocean are all characterized by high silica to organic carbon export ratios, a diagnostic trait for diatoms growing under iron stress. We therefore propose that prevailing conditions of silica limitation in the ocean are largely caused by iron deficiency imposing an indirect constraint on oceanic carbon uptake

Non-Linear Interactions between Consumers and Flow Determine the Probability of Plant Community Dominance on Maine Rocky Shores

Although consumers can strongly influence community recovery from disturbance, few studies have explored the effects of consumer identity and density and how they may vary across abiotic gradients. On rocky shores in Maine, recent experiments suggest that recovery of plant- or animal- dominated community states is governed by rates of water movement and consumer pressure. To further elucidate the mechanisms of consumer control, we examined the species-specific and density-dependent effects of rocky shore consumers (crabs and snails) on community recovery under both high (mussel dominated) and low flow (plant dominated) conditions. By partitioning the direct impacts of predators (crabs) and grazers (snails) on community recovery across a flow gradient, we found that grazers, but not predators, are likely the primary agent of consumer control and that their impact is highly non-linear. Manipulating snail densities revealed that herbivorous and bull-dozing snails (Littorina littorea) alone can control recovery of high and low flow communities. After ∼1.5 years of recovery, snail density explained a significant amount of the variation in macroalgal coverage at low flow sites and also mussel recovery at high flow sites. These density-dependent grazer effects were were both non-linear and flow-dependent, with low abundance thresholds needed to suppress plant community recovery, and much higher levels needed to control mussel bed development. Our study suggests that consumer density and identity are key in regulating both plant and animal community recovery and that physical conditions can determine the functional forms of these consumer effects

First observations of separated atmospheric nu_mu and bar{nu-mu} events in the MINOS detector

The complete 5.4 kton MINOS far detector has been taking data since the beginning of August 2003 at a depth of 2070 meters water-equivalent in the Soudan mine, Minnesota. This paper presents the first MINOS observations of nuµ and [overline nu ]µ charged-current atmospheric neutrino interactions based on an exposure of 418 days. The ratio of upward- to downward-going events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation in the absence of neutrino oscillations, giving Rup/downdata/Rup/downMC=0.62-0.14+0.19(stat.)±0.02(sys.). An extended maximum likelihood analysis of the observed L/E distributions excludes the null hypothesis of no neutrino oscillations at the 98% confidence level. Using the curvature of the observed muons in the 1.3 T MINOS magnetic field nuµ and [overline nu ]µ interactions are separated. The ratio of [overline nu ]µ to nuµ events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation assuming neutrinos and antineutrinos oscillate in the same manner, giving R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]data/R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]MC=0.96-0.27+0.38(stat.)±0.15(sys.), where the errors are the statistical and systematic uncertainties. Although the statistics are limited, this is the first direct observation of atmospheric neutrino interactions separately for nuµ and [overline nu ]µ

Analysis of genome-wide structure, diversity and fine mapping of Mendelian traits in traditional and village chickens

Extensive phenotypic variation is a common feature among village chickens found throughout much of the developing world, and in traditional chicken breeds that have been artificially selected for traits such as plumage variety. We present here an assessment of traditional and village chicken populations, for fine mapping of Mendelian traits using genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping while providing information on their genetic structure and diversity. Bayesian clustering analysis reveals two main genetic backgrounds in traditional breeds, Kenyan, Ethiopian and Chilean village chickens. Analysis of linkage disequilibrium (LD) reveals useful LD (r(2)⩾0.3) in both traditional and village chickens at pairwise marker distances of ∼10 Kb; while haplotype block analysis indicates a median block size of 11–12 Kb. Association mapping yielded refined mapping intervals for duplex comb (Gga 2:38.55–38.89 Mb) and rose comb (Gga 7:18.41–22.09 Mb) phenotypes in traditional breeds. Combined mapping information from traditional breeds and Chilean village chicken allows the oocyan phenotype to be fine mapped to two small regions (Gga 1:67.25–67.28 Mb, Gga 1:67.28–67.32 Mb) totalling ∼75 Kb. Mapping the unmapped earlobe pigmentation phenotype supports previous findings that the trait is sex-linked and polygenic. A critical assessment of the number of SNPs required to map simple traits indicate that between 90 and 110K SNPs are required for full genome-wide analysis of haplotype block structure/ancestry, and for association mapping in both traditional and village chickens. Our results demonstrate the importance and uniqueness of phenotypic diversity and genetic structure of traditional chicken breeds for fine-scale mapping of Mendelian traits in the species, with village chicken populations providing further opportunities to enhance mapping resolutions

HCV co-infection in HIV positive population in British Columbia, Canada

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) share some modes of transmission co-infection is not uncommon. This study used a population-based sample of HIV and HCV tested individuals to determine the prevalence of HIV/HCV co-infection, the sequence of virus diagnoses, and demographic and associated risk factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Positive cases of HIV were linked to the combined laboratory database (of negative and positive HCV antibody results) and HCV reported cases in British Columbia (BC).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 4,598 HIV cases with personal identifiers, 3,219 (70%) were linked to the combined HCV database, 1,700 (53%) of these were anti-HCV positive. HCV was diagnosed first in 52% of co-infected cases (median time to HIV identification 3 1/2 years). HIV and HCV was diagnosed within a two week window in 26% of cases. Among individuals who were diagnosed with HIV infection at baseline, subsequent diagnoses of HCV infection was independently associated with: i) intravenous drug use (IDU) in males and females, Hazard Ratio (HR) = 6.64 (95% CI: 4.86-9.07) and 9.76 (95% CI: 5.76-16.54) respectively; ii) reported Aboriginal ethnicity in females HR = 2.09 (95% CI: 1.34-3.27) and iii) males not identified as men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), HR = 2.99 (95% CI: 2.09-4.27).</p> <p>Identification of HCV first compared to HIV first was independently associated with IDU in males and females OR = 2.83 (95% CI: 1.84-4.37) and 2.25 (95% CI: 1.15-4.39) respectively, but not Aboriginal ethnicity or MSM. HIV was identified first in 22%, with median time to HCV identification of 15 months;</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The ability to link BC public health and laboratory HIV and HCV information provided a unique opportunity to explore demographic and risk factors associated with HIV/HCV co-infection. Over half of persons with HIV infection who were tested for HCV were anti-HCV positive; half of these had HCV diagnosed first with HIV identification a median 3.5 years later. This highlights the importance of public health follow-up and harm reduction measures for people identified with HCV to prevent subsequent HIV infection.</p