Impact of Systematic Sampling on Causality in the presence of Unit Roots

Quite contrary to the stationary case where systematic sampling preserves the direction of Granger causality, this paper shows that systematic sampling of integrated series may induce spurious causality, even if they are used in differenced form.Systematic Sampling, Causality, Unit Roots, Cross covariance

How an Export Boom affects Unemployment

Does trade affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment? To theoretically examine this question, we incorporate firm-union bargaining considerations into a model with a booming external sector and a stagnating manufacturing sector. In the model, a sustained improvement in the terms of trade lowers unemployment. To empirically investigate the predicted determinants of the unemployment rate, we use data for Australia, a country whose prosperity has always depended on the value of its exports. We find strong evidence that higher export prices, capital accumulation in tradeable goods industries and a lower unemployment benefit replacement rate each reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate.

Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation

The growing affluence of the East and Southeast Asian economies has come about through a substantial increase in their economic links with the rest of the world, the OECD economies in particular. Econometric studies that try to quantify these links face a severe shortage of high frequency time series data for China and the group of ASEAN4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). In this exercise we provide quarterly real GDP estimates for these countries derived by applying the Chow-Lin related series technique to annual real GDP series. The quality of the disaggregated series is evaluated through a number of indirect methods. Some potential problems of using readily available univariate disaggregation techniques are also highlighted.Univariate disaggregation, Chow-Lin procedure, first-difference method, growth-rate method, output linkages and forecast performance