A comprehensive reanalysis of Spitzer's 4.5 μm phase curves, and the phase variations of the ultra-hot Jupiters MASCARA-1b and KELT-16b

We have developed an open-source pipeline for the analysis of Spitzer/IRAC channel 1 and 2 time-series photometry, incorporating some of the most popular decorrelation methods. We applied this pipeline to new phase curve observations of ultra-hot Jupiters MASCARA-1b and KELT-16b, and we performed the first comprehensive reanalysis of 15 phase curves. We find that MASCARA-1b and KELT-16b have phase offsets of 6+11−11 ∘W and 38+16−15 ∘W, dayside temperatures of 2952+100−97 and 3070+160−150 K, and nightside temperatures of 1300+340−340 and 1900+430−440 K, respectively. We confirm a strong correlation between dayside and irradiation temperatures with a shallower dependence for nightside temperature. We also find evidence that the normalized phase curve amplitude (peak-to-trough divided by eclipse depth) is correlated with stellar effective temperature. In addition, while our different models often retrieve similar parameters, significant differences occasionally arise between them, as well as between our preferred model and the literature values. Nevertheless, our preferred models are consistent with published phase offsets to within −8 ± 21 degrees (−1.6 ± 3.2 sigma), and normalized phase curve amplitudes are on average reproduced to within −0.01 ± 0.24 (−0.1 ± 1.6 sigma). Finally, we find that BLISS performs best in most cases, but not all; we therefore recommend future analyses consider numerous detector models to ensure an optimal fit and to assess model dependencies

A Framework for Prioritizing the TESS Planetary Candidates Most Amenable to Atmospheric Characterization

A key legacy of the recently launched the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission will be to provide the astronomical community with many of the best transiting exoplanet targets for atmospheric characterization. However, time is of the essence to take full advantage of this opportunity. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), although delayed, will still complete its nominal five year mission on a timeline that motivates rapid identification, confirmation, and mass measurement of the top atmospheric characterization targets from TESS. Beyond JWST, future dedicated missions for atmospheric studies such as the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) require the discovery and confirmation of several hundred additional sub-Jovian size planets (R p < 10 R ⊕) orbiting bright stars, beyond those known today, to ensure a successful statistical census of exoplanet atmospheres. Ground-based extremely large telescopes (ELTs) will also contribute to surveying the atmospheres of the transiting planets discovered by TESS. Here we present a set of two straightforward analytic metrics, quantifying the expected signal-to-noise in transmission and thermal emission spectroscopy for a given planet, that will allow the top atmospheric characterization targets to be readily identified among the TESS planet candidates. Targets that meet our proposed threshold values for these metrics would be encouraged for rapid follow-up and confirmation via radial velocity mass measurements. Based on the catalog of simulated TESS detections by Sullivan et al., we determine appropriate cutoff values of the metrics, such that the TESS mission will ultimately yield a sample of ~300 high-quality atmospheric characterization targets across a range of planet size bins, extending down to Earth-size, potentially habitable worlds