Relating aviation service difficulty reports to accident data for safety trend prediction

A synthetic model of scheduled-commercial U.S. aviation fatalities was constructed from linear combinations of the time-spectra of critical systems reporting using 5.5 years of Service Difficulty Reports (SDR){sup 2} and Accident Incident Data System (AIDS) records{sup 3}. This model, used to predict near-future trends in aviation accidents, was tested by using the first 36 months of data to construct the synthetic model which was used to predict fatalities during the following eight months. These predictions were tested by comparison with the fatality data. A reliability block diagram (RBD) and third-order extrapolations also were used as predictive models and compared with actuality. The synthetic model was the best predictor because of its use of systems data. Other results of the study are a database of service difficulties for major aviation systems, and a rank ordering of systems according to their contribution to the synthesis. 4 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

Review of pipe-break probability assessment methods and data for applicability to the advanced neutron source project for Oak Ridge National Laboratory

The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) (Difilippo, 1986; Gamble, 1986; West, 1986; Selby, 1987) will be the world's best facility for low energy neutron research. This performance requires the highest flux density of all non-pulsed reactors with concomitant low thermal inertial and fast response to upset conditions. One of the primary concerns is that a flow cessation of the order of a second may result in fuel damage. Such a flow stoppage could be the result of break in the primary piping. This report is a review of methods for assessing pipe break probabilities based on historical operating experience in power reactors, scaling methods, fracture mechanics and fracture growth models. The goal of this work is to develop parametric guidance for the ANS design to make the event highly unlikely. It is also to review and select methods that may be used in an interactive IBM-PC model providing fast and reasonably accurate models to aid the ANS designers in achieving the safety requirements. 80 refs., 7 figs

Actinide partitioning-transmutation program final report. VI. Short-term risk analysis of reprocessing, refabrication, and transportation: appendix

The Chemical Technology Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has prepared a set of documents that evaluate a Partitioning-Transmutation (PT) fuel cycle relative to a Reference cycle employing conventional fuel-material recovery methods. The PT cycle uses enhanced recovery methods so that most of the long-lived actinides are recycled to nuclear power plants and transmuted to shorter-lived materials, thereby reducing the waste toxicity. This report compares the two fuel cycles on the basis of the short-term radiological and nonradiological risks they present to the public and to workers. The accidental radiological risk to the public is analyzed by estimating the probabilities of sets of accidents; the consequences are calculated using the CRAC code appropriately modified for the material composition. Routine radiological risks to the public are estimated from the calculated release amounts; the effects are calculated using the CRAC code. Radiological occupational risks are determined from prior experience, projected standards, and estimates of accident risk. Nonradiological risks are calculated from the number of personnel involved, historical experience, and epidemiological studies. The result of this analysis is that the short-term risk of PT is 2.9 times greater than that of the Reference cycle, primarily due to the larger amount of industry. This conclusion is strongly dominated by the nonradiological risk, which is about 150 times greater than the radiological risk. The absolute risk as estimated for the fuel cycle portions considered in this report is 0.91 fatalities/GWe-year for the PT cycle and 0.34 fatalities/GWe-year for the Reference cycle. This should be compared with Inhaber's estimate of 1.5 for nuclear and 150 for coal. All of the risks assumed here are associated with the production of one billion watts of electricity (GWe) per year

PRAAGE-1988: An interactive IBM-PC code for aging analysis of NUREG-1150 systems

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRA) contain a great deal of information for estimating the risk of a nuclear power plant but do not consider aging. PRAAGE (PRA+AGE) is an interactive, IBM-PC code for processing PRA-developed system models using non-aged failure rate data in conjunction with user-supplied time-dependent nuclear plant experience component failure rate data to determine the effects of component aging on a system's reliability as well as providing the age-dependent importances of various generic components. This paper describes the structure, use and application of PRAAGE to the aging analysis of the Peach Bottom 2 RHR system in the LPCI and SDC modes of operation. 4 refs., 15 figs., 5 tabs