Willmore minimizers with prescribed isoperimetric ratio

Motivated by a simple model for elastic cell membranes, we minimize the Willmore functional among two-dimensional spheres embedded in R^3 with prescribed isoperimetric ratio

Asymptotically cylindrical 7-manifolds of holonomy G_2 with applications to compact irreducible G_2-manifolds

We construct examples of exponentially asymptotically cylindrical Riemannian 7-manifolds with holonomy group equal to G_2. To our knowledge, these are the first such examples. We also obtain exponentially asymptotically cylindrical coassociative calibrated submanifolds. Finally, we apply our results to show that one of the compact G_2-manifolds constructed by Joyce by desingularisation of a flat orbifold T^7/\Gamma can be deformed to one of the compact G_2-manifolds obtainable as a generalized connected sum of two exponentially asymptotically cylindrical SU(3)-manifolds via the method given by the first author (math.DG/0012189).Comment: 36 pages; v2: corrected trivial typos; v3: some arguments corrected and improved; v4: a number of improvements on presentation, paritularly in sections 4 and 6, including an added picture

Patterns of domestication in the Ethiopian oil-seed crop noug (Guizotia abyssinica)

Noug (Guizotia abyssinica) is a semidomesticated oil-seed crop, which is primarily cultivated in Ethiopia. Unlike its closest crop relative, sunflower, noug has small seeds, small flowering heads, many branches, many flowering heads, and indeterminate flowering, and it shatters in the field. Here, we conducted common garden studies and microsatellite analyses of genetic variation to test whether high levels of crop–wild gene flow and/or unfavorable phenotypic correlations have hindered noug domestication. With the exception of one population, analyses of microsatellite variation failed to detect substantial recent admixture between noug and its wild progenitor. Likewise, only very weak correlations were found between seed mass and the number or size of flowering heads. Thus, noug's ‘atypical’ domestication syndrome does not seem to be a consequence of recent introgression or unfavorable phenotypic correlations. Nonetheless, our data do reveal evidence of local adaptation of noug cultivars to different precipitation regimes, as well as high levels of phenotypic plasticity, which may permit reasonable yields under diverse environmental conditions. Why noug has not been fully domesticated remains a mystery, but perhaps early farmers selected for resilience to episodic drought or untended environments rather than larger seeds. Domestication may also have been slowed by noug's outcrossing mating syste

The feasibility of using multiple databases to study rare outcomes: the potential effect of long-acting beta agonists with inhaled corticosteroid therapy on asthma mortality

Purpose: Long-acting beta agonists (LABAs) when used without concomitant inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) increase the risk of asthma-related deaths, but the effect on asthma-related death of LABA used in combination with ICS therapy is unknown. To address this question, we explored the feasibility of conducting an observational study using multiple US health care data sources. Methods: Retrospective cohort study to evaluate the likelihood of getting an upper 95% confidence limit ≤1.4 for the asthma mortality rate ratio and ≤0.40 per 10 000 person-years for the mortality rate difference, assuming no effect of new use of combined LABA + ICS (versus non-LABA maintenance therapy) on asthma mortality. Ten research institutions executed centrally distributed analytic code based on a standard protocol using an extracted (2000–2010) persistent asthma cohort (asthma diagnosis and ≥4 asthma medications in 12 months). Pooled results were analyzed by the coordinating center. Asthma deaths were ascertained by linkage with the National Death Index. Results: In a cohort of 994 627 persistent asthma patients (2.4 million person-years; 278 asthma deaths), probabilities of the upper 95% confidence limit for effect estimates being less than targeted values, assuming a null relation, were about 0.05. Modifications in cohort and exposure definitions increased exposed person-time and outcome events, but study size remained insufficient to attain study goals. Conclusions: Even with 10 data sources and a 10-year study period, the rarity of asthma deaths among patients using certain medications made it infeasible to study the association between combined LABA + ICS and asthma mortality with our targeted level of study precision

Machine learning algorithms performed no better than regression models for prognostication in traumatic brain injury

Objective: We aimed to explore the added value of common machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of outcome for moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Study Design and Setting: We performed logistic regression (LR), lasso regression, and ridge regression with key baseline predictors in the IMPACT-II database (15 studies, n = 11,022). ML algorithms included support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, and artificial neural networks and were trained using the same predictors. To assess generalizability of predictions, we performed internal, internal-external, and external validation on the recent CENTER-TBI study (patients with Glasgow Coma Scale <13, n = 1,554). Both calibration (calibration slope/intercept) and discrimination (area under the curve) was quantified. Results: In the IMPACT-II database, 3,332/11,022 (30%) died and 5,233(48%) had unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale less than 4). In the CENTER-TBI study, 348/1,554(29%) died and 651(54%) had unfavorable outcome. Discrimination and calibration varied widely between the studies and less so between the studied algorithms. The mean area under the curve was 0.82 for mortality and 0.77 for unfavorable outcomes in the CENTER-TBI study. Conclusion: ML algorithms may not outperform traditional regression approaches in a low-dimensional setting for outcome prediction after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Similar to regression-based prediction models, ML algorithms should be rigorously validated to ensure applicability to new populations

Variation in Structure and Process of Care in Traumatic Brain Injury: Provider Profiles of European Neurotrauma Centers Participating in the CENTER-TBI Study.

INTRODUCTION: The strength of evidence underpinning care and treatment recommendations in traumatic brain injury (TBI) is low. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has been proposed as a framework to provide evidence for optimal care for TBI patients. The first step in CER is to map the existing variation. The aim of current study is to quantify variation in general structural and process characteristics among centers participating in the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study. METHODS: We designed a set of 11 provider profiling questionnaires with 321 questions about various aspects of TBI care, chosen based on literature and expert opinion. After pilot testing, questionnaires were disseminated to 71 centers from 20 countries participating in the CENTER-TBI study. Reliability of questionnaires was estimated by calculating a concordance rate among 5% duplicate questions. RESULTS: All 71 centers completed the questionnaires. Median concordance rate among duplicate questions was 0.85. The majority of centers were academic hospitals (n = 65, 92%), designated as a level I trauma center (n = 48, 68%) and situated in an urban location (n = 70, 99%). The availability of facilities for neuro-trauma care varied across centers; e.g. 40 (57%) had a dedicated neuro-intensive care unit (ICU), 36 (51%) had an in-hospital rehabilitation unit and the organization of the ICU was closed in 64% (n = 45) of the centers. In addition, we found wide variation in processes of care, such as the ICU admission policy and intracranial pressure monitoring policy among centers. CONCLUSION: Even among high-volume, specialized neurotrauma centers there is substantial variation in structures and processes of TBI care. This variation provides an opportunity to study effectiveness of specific aspects of TBI care and to identify best practices with CER approaches

Soil net nitrogen mineralisation across global grasslands

Soil nitrogen mineralisation (Nmin), the conversion of organic into inorganic N, is important for productivity and nutrient cycling. The balance between mineralisation and immobilisation (net Nmin) varies with soil properties and climate. However, because most global-scale assessments of net Nmin are laboratory-based, its regulation under field-conditions and implications for real-world soil functioning remain uncertain. Here, we explore the drivers of realised (field) and potential (laboratory) soil net Nmin across 30 grasslands worldwide. We find that realised Nmin is largely explained by temperature of the wettest quarter, microbial biomass, clay content and bulk density. Potential Nmin only weakly correlates with realised Nmin, but contributes to explain realised net Nmin when combined with soil and climatic variables. We provide novel insights of global realised soil net Nmin and show that potential soil net Nmin data available in the literature could be parameterised with soil and climate data to better predict realised NNational Science Foundation Research Coordination Network; Long-Term Ecological Research; Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota.http://www.nature.com/ncommspm2020Mammal Research InstituteZoology and Entomolog