Railroad electrification in America's future: an assessment of prospects and impacts. Final report

Such considerations as the level of traffic, the relative financial health of individual railroads, the capacity of the associated supply and engineering/construction industries, and the logical connecting points at classifying yards, as well as the national interest value of creating a continuous system, continental in scope, were used to construct a scenario for railroad electrification that closely approximates how an electrification program might be implemented. For the economic reasons cited, much of the US railroad system would remain conventionally powered. This scenario provides for an electrified network involving 14 mainlines operated by 10 companies that could transport much of the nation's rail-borne freight. Five years of planning and engineering work would be required for each link before construction could begin. With 1000 miles or less of electrified route per year, 14 years would be needed to construct the 9000-mile network of our scenario. (The scenario constructed runs from 1980 to 1998.) The analysis was aided with the construction of the SRI Railroad Industry Model. Basically a model of industry operations and finances, the model produces income statements and balance sheets at yearly intervals. Railroad energy costs, railroad freight levels, maintenance costs, purchases and leases of rooling stock, electrification facility investments, future inflation, rate setting practices, annual depreciation, taxes, and profits were calculated