Rethinking risk attitude: aspiration as pure risk

There exists no completely satisfactory theory of risk attitude in current normative decision theories. Existing notions confound attitudes to pure risk with unrelated psychological factors such as strength of preference for certain outcomes, and probability weighting. In addition traditional measures of risk attitude frequently cannot be applied to non-numerical consequences, and are not psychologically intuitive. I develop Pure Risk theory which resolves these problems – it is consistent with existing normative theories, and both internalises and generalises the intuitive notion of risk being related to the probability of not achieving one’s aspirations. Existing models which ignore pure risk attitudes may be misspecified, and effects hitherto modelled as loss aversion or utility curvature may be due instead to Pure Risk attitudes. Copyright Springer 2006risk, pure risk attitude, aspiration levels, Subjective Expected Utility Theory, Prospect Theory, Pure Risk Prospect Theory, strength of preference,

Cross-comparison of inflammatory skin disease transcriptomics identifies PTEN as a pathogenic disease classifier in cutaneous lupus erythematosus.

Tissue transcriptomics is used to uncover molecular dysregulations underlying diseases. However, the majority of transcriptomics studies focus on single diseases with limited relevance for understanding the molecular relationship between diseases or for identifying disease-specific markers. Here, we used a normalization approach to compare gene expression across nine inflammatory skin diseases. The normalized datasets were found to retain differential expression signals that allowed unsupervised disease clustering and identification of disease-specific gene signatures. Using the NS-Forest algorithm, we identified a minimal set of biomarkers and validated their use as diagnostic disease classifier. Among them, PTEN was identified as being a specific marker for cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE) and found to be strongly expressed by lesional keratinocytes in association with pathogenic type I interferons (IFNs). In fact, PTEN facilitated expression of IFN-β and IFN-κ in keratinocytes by promoting activation and nuclear translocation of IRF3. Thus, cross-comparison of tissue transcriptomics is a valid strategy to establish a molecular disease classification and identify pathogenic disease biomarkers

Do Trade Union Leaders Violate Subjective Expected Utility? Some Insights From Experimental Data

This paper presents the results of two experiments designed to test violations of Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) within a sample of Italian trade union delegates and leaders. Subjects priced risky and ambiguous prospects in the domain of gains. Risky prospects were based on games of chance, while ambiguous prospects were built on the standard Ellsberg paradox and on event lotteries whose outcomes were based either on the results of a fictional election or on the future results of the 1999 European Parliamentary election in Italy and the U.K. The experiments show that, although risky prospects were priced at their expected values on average, trade union delegates and leaders did violate SEUT when assessing ambiguous prospects. Moreover, their behaviour depended on the source of uncertainty (Ellsberg paradox vs. electoral results; fictional vs. real election; Italy vs. U.K. election outcomes). We discuss the implications of these results for the economic theory of the trade union. Copyright Springer 2005ambiguity, Ellsberg’s paradox, trade unions, D81, J51,

Non-additive degrees of belief

This paper starts from the position that belief is primarily quantitative and not categorical, i.e. we generally assume the existence of various degrees of belief. This corresponds to the observation that most human beings experience belief as a matter of degree. We follow the usual convention that such degrees of belief are values i