Scenario-based modeling in industrial information systems

This manuscript addresses the creation of scenario-based models to reason about the behavior of existing industrial information systems. In our approach the system behavior is modeled in two steps that gradually introduce detail and formality. This manuscript addresses the first step, where text-based descriptions, in the form of structured rules, are used to specify how the system is or should be regulated. Those rules can be used to create behavioral snapshots, which are collections of scenario-based descriptions that represent different instances of the system behavior. Snapshots are specified in an intuitive and graphical notation that considers the elements from the problem domain and permit designers to discuss and validate the externally observable behavior, together with the domain experts. In the second step (not fully covered in this manuscript), the system behavior is formalized with an executable model. This formal model, which in our approach is specified using the Colored Petri Net (CP-nets) language, allows the system internal behavior to be animated, simulated, and optimized. The insights gained by experimenting with the formal model can be subsequently used for reengineering the existing system

Coordinated strategy for a model-based decision support tool for coronavirus disease, Utah, USA

The coronavirus disease pandemic has highlighted the key role epidemiologic models play in supporting public health decision-making. In particular, these models provide estimates of outbreak potential when data are scarce and decision-making is critical and urgent. We document the integrated modeling response used in the US state of Utah early in the coronavirus disease pandemic, which brought together a diverse set of technical experts and public health and healthcare officials and led to an evidence-based response to the pandemic. We describe how we adapted a standard epidemiologic model; harmonized the outputs across modeling groups; and maintained a constant dialogue with policymakers at multiple levels of government to produce timely, evidence-based, and coordinated public health recommendations and interventions during the first wave of the pandemic. This framework continues to support the state's response to ongoing outbreaks and can be applied in other settings to address unique public health challenges

Ecological perspectives on regulation and water allocation for the Ord River, Western Australia

Water management agencies throughout Australia are attempting to find a balance between the water requirements of ecological and socio-economic environments as part of a holistic approach to managing flow-dependent river ecosystems. Environmental water provisions are under consideration for the Ord River in far northern Western Australia. This river has been regulated for irrigation and there are plans for substantial expansion. Like other semi-arid and tropical rivers, however, the hydrology of the Ord River is highly variable and unpredictable, and therefore, proportionate water release strategies for the environment that are based on average monthly flows are unsuitable. Regulation continues to produce pronounced ecological changes throughout the river system as the impacts of flow regime are negated. There is a dichotomy in optimal flow regimes for the contrasting management aspirations of ecological restoration based on low seasonal flows, and the dilution flows required for the drainage of agricultural effluent. Whilst current agricultural land and water management practices continue, the two cannot coincide, and consequently, a decision should be made regarding which environmental water allocation holds the primary value. Such a decision would guide the appropriate dry season flow regime on the lower Ord River

Stream salinization is associated with reduced taxonomic, but not functional diversity in a riparian plant community

Dryland salinity presents an overwhelming threat to terrestrial and aquatic habitats in Australia, and yet there remains very little empirical evidence of the impacts of secondary salinization on the biodiversity of riparian communities. Here we describe the response of a riparian plant community to stream and soil salinization, 25 years after the experimental clearing of a catchment in south-western Australia. Riparian plant species diversity was inversely related to soil salinity, and plant species composition was significantly altered by increased soil salinity. Despite the evidence for an impact of salinization on the taxonomic diversity and composition of the riparian plant community, there was little evidence for any effect of salinization on functional group diversity, or on ecological functioning, as measured by the percentage of above-ground plant cover

Effects of salinisation on riparian plant communities in experimental catchments on the Collie River, Western Australia

Although the salinisation of streams has long been recognised as one of Western Australia's most serious environmental and resource problems, there is very little published information on the effects of salinisation on riparian flora and fauna. We studied riparian vegetation in three experimental catchments on the Collie River in Western Australia. The catchments are situated within a 5-km area of state forest and are geologically and botanically similar, but differ in the extent of clearing, groundwater levels and stream salinity. In each catchment, transects were taken perpendicular to the direction of streamflow, and 4-m2 quadrats taken along each transect. Within each quadrat, soil salinity was measured, all plants were identified to species level and percentage cover estimated. The catchments differed significantly in soil salinity, with salinity being greatest in the most extensively cleared catchment and increasing towards the floor of the valley. Plant-species richness, species diversity and species composition were significantly related to soil salinity, both among catchments and among quadrats within the most extensively cleared catchment. Plant-species richness and diversity decreased with increasing soil salinity, an effect that may be partly due to a decline in perennial herb and shrub species. This may have an impact on other components of the riparian ecosystem.\u