Integrated polygenic tool substantially enhances coronary artery disease prediction

Background: There is considerable interest in whether genetic data can be used to improve standard cardiovascular disease risk calculators, as the latter are routinely used in clinical practice to manage preventative treatment. Methods: Using the UK Biobank resource, we developed our own polygenic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD). We used an additional 60 000 UK Biobank individuals to develop an integrated risk tool (IRT) that combined our polygenic risk score with established risk tools (either the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology pooled cohort equations [PCE] or UK QRISK3), and we tested our IRT in an additional, independent set of 186 451 UK Biobank individuals. Results: The novel CAD polygenic risk score shows superior predictive power for CAD events, compared with other published polygenic risk scores, and is largely uncorrelated with PCE and QRISK3. When combined with PCE into an IRT, it has superior predictive accuracy. Overall, 10.4% of incident CAD cases were misclassified as low risk by PCE and correctly classified as high risk by the IRT, compared with 4.4% misclassified by the IRT and correctly classified by PCE. The overall net reclassification improvement for the IRT was 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7–7.0). When individuals were stratified into age-by-sex subgroups, the improvement was larger for all subgroups (range, 8.3%–15.4%), with the best performance in 40- to 54-year-old men (15.4% [95% CI, 11.6–19.3]). Comparable results were found using a different risk tool (QRISK3) and also a broader definition of cardiovascular disease. Use of the IRT is estimated to avoid up to 12 000 deaths in the United States over a 5-year period. Conclusions: An IRT that includes polygenic risk outperforms current risk stratification tools and offers greater opportunity for early interventions. Given the plummeting costs of genetic tests, future iterations of CAD risk tools would be enhanced with the addition of a person’s polygenic risk

Three-dimensional spatial analysis of missense variants in RTEL1 identifies pathogenic variants in patients with Familial Interstitial Pneumonia

Abstract Background Next-generation sequencing of individuals with genetic diseases often detects candidate rare variants in numerous genes, but determining which are causal remains challenging. We hypothesized that the spatial distribution of missense variants in protein structures contains information about function and pathogenicity that can help prioritize variants of unknown significance (VUS) and elucidate the structural mechanisms leading to disease. Results To illustrate this approach in a clinical application, we analyzed 13 candidate missense variants in regulator of telomere elongation helicase 1 (RTEL1) identified in patients with Familial Interstitial Pneumonia (FIP). We curated pathogenic and neutral RTEL1 variants from the literature and public databases. We then used homology modeling to construct a 3D structural model of RTEL1 and mapped known variants into this structure. We next developed a pathogenicity prediction algorithm based on proximity to known disease causing and neutral variants and evaluated its performance with leave-one-out cross-validation. We further validated our predictions with segregation analyses, telomere lengths, and mutagenesis data from the homologous XPD protein. Our algorithm for classifying RTEL1 VUS based on spatial proximity to pathogenic and neutral variation accurately distinguished 7 known pathogenic from 29 neutral variants (ROC AUC = 0.85) in the N-terminal domains of RTEL1. Pathogenic proximity scores were also significantly correlated with effects on ATPase activity (Pearson r = −0.65, p = 0.0004) in XPD, a related helicase. Applying the algorithm to 13 VUS identified from sequencing of RTEL1 from patients predicted five out of six disease-segregating VUS to be pathogenic. We provide structural hypotheses regarding how these mutations may disrupt RTEL1 ATPase and helicase function. Conclusions Spatial analysis of missense variation accurately classified candidate VUS in RTEL1 and suggests how such variants cause disease. Incorporating spatial proximity analyses into other pathogenicity prediction tools may improve accuracy for other genes and genetic diseases