Election Day Voter Registration in Nebraska

We have analyzed the likely impact on voter turnout should Nebraska adopt Election Day Registration (EDR). Under the system proposed in Nebraska, eligible voters who miss the 18-day deadline for registering by mail may be able to register to vote on Election Day. Availability of Election Day Registration (EDR) procedures should give voters who have not previously registered the opportunity to vote. Consistent with existing research on the impact of EDR in the other states that use this process, we find that EDR would likely lead to substantial increases in voter turnout. Thisreport presents the following estimates of increases in turnout for Nebraska, and for specific groups of Nebraska citizens under EDR. Overall turnout could go up by 5.4 percent. Turnout among those aged 18 to 25 could increase by 10.6 percent. Turnout for those who have moved in the last six months could increase by 9.5 percent. Turnout for Latinos could increase by 9.0 percent Turnout for African Americans could increase by 6.0 percent. Turnout among poor and middle-income citizens could increase by 8.1 and 6.4 percent, respectively, while turnout among the wealthiest citizens would likely increase by 3.7 percent

Election Day Voter Registration in Massachusetts

R. Michael Alvarez of the California Institute of Technology and Jonathan Nagler of NYU analyze the likely impact of Election Day Registration on voter turnout in Massachusetts

Same Day Voter Registration in North Carolina

R. Michael Alvarez of the California Institute of Technology and Jonathan Nagler of NYU analyze the likely impact of Election Day Registration on voter turnout in North Carolina

Party System Compactness: Measurement and Consequences

An important property of any party system is the set of choices it presents to the electorate. In this paper we analyze the distribution of parties relative to voters in the multidimensional issue space and introduce two measures of the dispersion of the parties in the issue space relative to the voters, which we call measures of the compactness of the parties in the issue space. We show how compactness is easily computed using standard survey items found on national election surveys. Because we study the spacing of the parties relative to the distribution of the voters, we produce metric-free measures of compactness of the party system. The measures can be used to compare party systems across issues, over time within countries, and across countries. Comparing the compactness of party systems across countries allows us to determine the relative amount of issue choice afforded voters in different polities. We examine the compactness of the issue space and test the impact it has on voter choice in four countries: the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, and Great Britain. We demonstrate that the more compact the distribution of the parties in the issue space on any given issue, the less voters weight that issue in their vote decision. Thus we provide evidence supporting theories suggesting that the greater the choice offered by the parties in an election, the more likely it is that issue voting will play a major role in that election

Election Day Voter Registration in Vermont

We have analyzed the likely impact on voter turnout should Vermont adopt Election Day Registration (EDR). Under the system proposed in Vermont, eligible voters who miss the current six-day deadline for registering by mail may be able to register to vote on Election Day. The availability of Election Day Registration procedures should give voters who have not previously registered the opportunity to vote. Consistent with existing research on the impact of EDR in the other states that use this process, we find that EDR would likely lead to substantial increases in voter turnout. We offer the following voter turnout estimates for Vermont under EDR: Overall turnout could go up by 4.8 percentTurnout among those aged 18 to 25 could increase by 10.2 percent.Turnout for those who have moved in the last six months could increase by 8.6 percent. Turnout among the poorest citizens could increase by 6.1 percent, while turnout among the wealthiest citizens would likely increase by only 3.3 percent

Election Day Voter Registration in Iowa

R. Michael Alvarez of the California Institute of Technology and Jonathan Nagler of NYU analyze the likely impact of Election Day Registration on voter turnout in Iowa

Election Day Voter Registration in New Mexico

R. Michael Alvarez of the California Institute of Technology and Jonathan Nagler of NYU analyze the likely impact of Election Day Registration on voter turnout in New Mexico. Among the findings: Overall turnout could go up by 5.6 percent. Turnout among those aged 18 to 25 could increase by 10.2 percent. Turnout for those who have moved in the last six months could increase by 9.0 percent. Turnout among Latinos could increase by 6.4 percent. Turnout among the poorest citizens could increase by 6.3 percent. Turnout among the wealthiest citizens would likely increase by 3.2 percent

The Dynamics of Issue Emphasis: Campaign Strategy and Media Coverage in Statewide Races

[No abstract

Two-Stage Estimation of Non-Recursive Choice Models

Questions of causation are important issues in empirical research on political behavior. Most of the discussion of the econometric problems associated with multi-equation models with reciprocal causation has focused on models with continuous dependent variables (e.g. Markus and Converse 1979; Page and Jones 1979). Since many models of political behavior involve discrete or dichotomous dependent variables, this paper turns to two techniques which can be employed to estimate reciprocal relationships between dichotomous and continuous dependent variables. One technique which I call two-stage probit least squares (2SPLS) is very similar to familiar two-stage instrumental variable techniques. The second technique, called two-stage conditional maximum likelihood (2SCML), may overcome problems associated with 2SPLS, but has not been used in the political science literature. First I show the properties of both techniques using Monte Carlo simulations. Then, I apply these techniques to an empirical example which focuses on the relationship between voter preferences in a presidential election and the voter's uncertainty about the policy positions taken by the candidates. This example demonstrates the importance of these techniques for political science research