Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Glacier mass loss is among the clearest indicators of atmospheric warming. The observation of these changes is one of the major objectives of the international climate monitoring strategy developed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Long-term glacier mass balance measurements are furthermore the basis for calibrating and validating models simulating future runoff of glacierised catchments. This is essential for Central Asia, which is one of the driest continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In the highly populated regions, water shortage due to decreased glacierisation potentially leads to pronounced political instability, drastic ecological changes and endangered food security. As a consequence of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, however, many valuable glacier monitoring sites in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains were abandoned. In recent years, multinational actors have re-established a set of important in situ measuring sites to continue the invaluable long-term data series. This paper introduces the applied monitoring strategy for selected glaciers in the Kyrgyz and Uzbek Tien Shan and Pamir, highlights the existing and the new measurements on these glaciers, and presents an example for how the old and new data can be combined to establish multi-decadal mass balance time series. This is crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on glaciers in this region

Методика оценки лавинного питания (на примере трёх ледников Тянь-Шаня)

The contribution of snow avalanches to the seasonal snow accumulation on a glacier is among the least studied components of the glacier’s mass balance. The methods for the numerical assessment of avalanche accumulation are still under development, which is related to poor avalanche data availability and difficulties in obtaining such data on most of mountain glaciers. We propose a possible methodology for the numerical assessment of snow avalanche contribution to snow accumulation at mountain glaciers based on DEM and weather data analysis using GIS and numerical modeling of snow avalanches. The developed methodology consists of the following steps: terrain analysis; weather data analysis; snow avalanche volume assessment during an analyzed balance year; numerical simulation of snow avalanches using RAMMS; evaluation of snow avalanches contribution into a glacier accumulation. The proposed methodology was tested on three glaciers located in the Inner Tien Shan: Batysh Sook, № 354 and Karabatkak during the 2015/16 balance year. To evaluate snow avalanche contribution to the seasonal accumulation, we reconstructed avalanche release zones that were most probably active during the 2015/16 balance year and corresponding snow fracture height in each of these zones. The numerical simulations of most probable released snow avalanches during the winter period 2015/16 using avalanche dynamics software RAMMS were performed and compared with the field observations and UAV orthophoto image from July 2016. The outlines of avalanches deposits were realistically reproduced by RAMMS according to the results of field observation. The estimated share of snow avalanche contribution to the accumulation on the research glaciers during the 2015/16 balance year turned out to be: Batysh Sook – 7,4±2,5%; № 354 – 2,2±0,7%; Karabatkak – 10,8±3,6% of the total accumulation. The next step would be to test the proposed methodology based on the data and regional dependences from the Inner Tien Shan in other mountainous regions. This methodology is applicable in the regions where DEMs, regular meteorological observations as well as data on the regional avalanche formation factors are available.Предложена новая методика количественной оценки лавинного питания ледников, основанная на анализе рельефа и данных метеорологических наблюдений с использованием методов геоинформационного картографирования и математического моделирования. Рассмотрены результаты её применения на трёх ледниках Тянь-Шаня: Западный Суёк, № 354, Карабаткак

Methods of snow avalanche nourishment assessment (on the example of three Tian Shan glaciers)

The contribution of snow avalanches to the seasonal snow accumulation on a glacier is among the least studied components of the glacier’s mass balance. The methods for the numerical assessment of avalanche accumulation are still under development, which is related to poor avalanche data availability and difficulties in obtaining such data on most of mountain glaciers. We propose a possible methodology for the numerical assessment of snow avalanche contribution to snow accumulation at mountain glaciers based on DEM and weather data analysis using GIS and numerical modeling of snow avalanches. The developed methodology consists of the following steps: terrain analysis; weather data analysis; snow avalanche volume assessment during an analyzed balance year; numerical simulation of snow avalanches using RAMMS; evaluation of snow avalanches contribution into a glacier accumulation. The proposed methodology was tested on three glaciers located in the Inner Tien Shan: Batysh Sook, № 354 and Karabatkak during the 2015/16 balance year. To evaluate snow avalanche contribution to the seasonal accumulation, we reconstructed avalanche release zones that were most probably active during the 2015/16 balance year and corresponding snow fracture height in each of these zones. The numerical simulations of most probable released snow avalanches during the winter period 2015/16 using avalanche dynamics software RAMMS were performed and compared with the field observations and UAV orthophoto image from July 2016. The outlines of avalanches deposits were realistically reproduced by RAMMS according to the results of field observation. The estimated share of snow avalanche contribution to the accumulation on the research glaciers during the 2015/16 balance year turned out to be: Batysh Sook – 7,4±2,5%; № 354 – 2,2±0,7%; Karabatkak – 10,8±3,6% of the total accumulation. The next step would be to test the proposed methodology based on the data and regional dependences from the Inner Tien Shan in other mountainous regions. This methodology is applicable in the regions where DEMs, regular meteorological observations as well as data on the regional avalanche formation factors are available

Cystic Echinococcosis in the Province of Álava, North Spain: The Monetary Burden of a Disease No Longer under Surveillance

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is endemic in Spain but has been considered non-endemic in the province of Álava, Northern Spain, since 1997. However, Álava is surrounded by autonomous regions with some of the highest CE prevalence proportions in the nation, casting doubts about the current classification. The purpose of this study is to estimate the frequency of CE in humans and animals and to use this data to determine the societal cost incurred due to CE in the Álava population in 2005. We have identified epidemiological and clinical data from surveillance and hospital records, prevalence data in intermediate (sheep and cattle) host species from abattoir records, and economical data from national and regional official institutions. Direct costs (diagnosis, treatment, medical care in humans and condemnation of offal in livestock species) and indirect costs (productivity losses in humans and reduction in growth, fecundity and milk production in livestock) were modelled using the Latin hypercube method under five different scenarios reflecting different assumptions regarding the prevalence of asymptomatic cases and associated productivity losses in humans. A total of 13 human CE cases were reported in 2005. The median total cost (95% credible interval) of CE in humans and animals in Álava in 2005 was estimated to range between €61,864 (95%CI%: €47,304-€76,590) and €360,466 (95%CI: €76,424-€752,469), with human-associated losses ranging from 57% to 93% of the total losses, depending on the scenario used. Our data provide evidence that CE is still very well present in Álava and incurs important cost to the province every year. We expect this information to prove valuable for public health agencies and policy-makers, as it seems advisable to reinstate appropriate surveillance and monitoring systems and to implement effective control measures that avoid the spread and recrudescence of the disease