Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects

Families, primarily female-headed minority households with children, living in high-poverty public housing projects in five U.S. cities were offered housing vouchers by lottery in the Moving to Opportunity program. Four to seven years after random assignment, families offered vouchers lived in safer neighborhoods that had lower poverty rates than those of the control group not offered vouchers. We find no significant overall effects of this intervention on adult economic self-sufficiency or physical health. Mental health benefits of the voucher offers for adults and for female youth were substantial. Beneficial effects for female youth on education, risky behavior, and physical health were offset by adverse effects for male youth. For outcomes exhibiting significant treatment effects, we find, using variation in treatment intensity across voucher types and cities, that the relationship between neighborhood poverty rate and outcomes is approximately linear.

Moving to Opportunity in Boston: Early Results of a Randomized Mobility Experiment

This paper examines the short-run impacts of a change in residential neighborhood on the well-being of low-income families, using evidence from the Moving To Opportunity (MTO) program in which eligibility for a housing voucher was determined by random lottery. Applicants in high poverty public housing projects were assigned by lottery to one of three groups: Experimental offered mobility counseling and a voucher valid only in a low-poverty Census tract; Section 8 Comparison offered a geographically unrestricted voucher; or Control offered no new assistance, but continued eligibility for public housing. Our quantitative analyses of program impacts at the Boston site of MTO uses data on 540 families approximately two years after program enrollment. 48 percent of the Experimental group and 62 percent of the Section 8 Comparison group moved through the MTO program. Households in both treatment groups experienced improvements in multiple measures of well-being relative to the Control group including increased safety, improved health among household heads, and fewer behavior problems among boys. There were no significant short-run impacts of either MTO treatment on employment, earnings, or welfare receipt. Experimental group children were less likely to be personally victimized by crime, to be injured, or to experience an asthma attack.

Forecasting Transaction Rates: The Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model

This paper will propose a new statistical model for the analysis of data that does not arrive in equal time intervals such as financial transactions data, telephone calls, or sales data on commodities that are tracked electronically. In contrast to fixed interval analysis, the model treats the time between observation arrivals as a stochastic time varying process and therefore is in the spirit of the models of time deformation initially proposed by Tauchen and Pitts (1983), Clark (1973) and more recently discussed by Stock (1988), Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1992), Muller et al. (1990) and Ghysels and Jasiak (1994) but does not require auxiliary data or assumptions on the causes of time flow. Strong evidence is provided for duration clustering beyond a deterministic component for the financial transactions data analyzed. We will show that a very simple version of the model can successfully account for the significant autocorrelations in the observed durations between trades of IBM stock on the consolidated market. A simple transformation of the duration data allows us to include volume in the model.

Neighborhood Effects on Crime for Female and Male Youth: Evidence from a Randomized Housing Voucher Experiment

The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) demonstration assigned housing vouchers via random lottery to public housing residents in five cities. We use the exogenous variation in residential locations generated by MTO to estimate neighborhood effects on youth crime and delinquency. The offer to relocate to lower-poverty areas reduces arrests among female youth for violent and property crimes, relative to a control group. For males the offer to relocate reduces arrests for violent crime, at least in the short run, but increases problem behaviors and property crime arrests. The gender difference in treatment effects seems to reflect differences in how male and female youths from disadvantaged backgrounds adapt and respond to similar new neighborhood environments.

Recoilless resonant neutrino experiment and origin of neutrino oscillations

We demonstrate that an experiment with recoilless resonant emission and absorption of tritium antineutrinos could have an important impact on our understanding of the origin of neutrino oscillations.Comment: The report at the Workshop on Next Generation Nucleon Decay and Neutrino Detectors, NNN06, September 21-23, 2006, University of Washington, Seattle, US

Umbral Moonshine and the Niemeier Lattices

In this paper we relate umbral moonshine to the Niemeier lattices: the 23 even unimodular positive-definite lattices of rank 24 with non-trivial root systems. To each Niemeier lattice we attach a finite group by considering a naturally defined quotient of the lattice automorphism group, and for each conjugacy class of each of these groups we identify a vector-valued mock modular form whose components coincide with mock theta functions of Ramanujan in many cases. This leads to the umbral moonshine conjecture, stating that an infinite-dimensional module is assigned to each of the Niemeier lattices in such a way that the associated graded trace functions are mock modular forms of a distinguished nature. These constructions and conjectures extend those of our earlier paper, and in particular include the Mathieu moonshine observed by Eguchi-Ooguri-Tachikawa as a special case. Our analysis also highlights a correspondence between genus zero groups and Niemeier lattices. As a part of this relation we recognise the Coxeter numbers of Niemeier root systems with a type A component as exactly those levels for which the corresponding classical modular curve has genus zero.Comment: 181 pages including 95 pages of Appendices; journal version, minor typos corrected, Research in the Mathematical Sciences, 2014, vol.