Predator Effects in Predator-Free Space: The Remote Effects of Predators on Prey

Predators can have remote effects on prey populations that are connected by migration (i.e. prey metapopulations) because predator-mediated changes in prey behavior and abundance effectively transmit the impact of predators into predator-free prey populations. Behavioral changes in prey that might give rise to remote effects are altered rates of migration or activity in the presence of predation risk (called non-consumptive effects, fear- or μ-driven effects, and risk effects). Changes in prey abundance that may result in remote effects arise from changes in prey density due to direct predation (i.e. consumptive effects, also called N-driven effects and predation effects). Remote effects provide a different perspective on both predator-prey interactions and spatial subsidies, illustrating how the interplay among space, time, behavior, and consumption generates emergent spatial dynamics in places where we might not expect them. We describe how strong remote effects of predators may essentially generate “remote control” over the dynamics of local populations, alter the persistence of metapopulations, shift the importance of particular paradigms of metacommunity structure, alter spatial subsidies, and affect evolutionary dynamics. We suggest how experiments might document remote effects and predict that remote effects will be an important component of prey dynamics under several common scenarios: when predators induce large changes in prey dispersal behavior, when predators dramatically reduce the number of prey available to disperse, when prey movement dynamics occur over greater distances or shorter timescales than predator movement, and when prey abundance is not already limited by competitors or conspecifics

Identifying and Characterizing Impact Melt Outcrops in the Nectaris Basin

The Nectaris Basin is an 820-km diameter, multi-ring impact basin located on the near side of the Moon. Nectaris is a defining stratigraphic horizon based on relationships between ejecta units, giving its name to the Nectarian epoch of lunar history. Lunar basin chronology based on higher resolution LRO imagery and topography, while assigning some important basins like Serenitatis to pre-Nectarian time, were generally consistent with those previously derived. Based on this stratigraphy, at least 11 large basins formed in the time between Nectaris and Imbrium. The absolute age of Nectaris, therefore, is a crucial marker in the lunar time-stratigraphic sequence for understanding the impact flux on the Moon, and by extension, the entire inner solar system. For several decades, workers have attempted to constrain the age of the Nectaris basin through radiometric dating of lunar samples. However, there is little agreement on which samples in our collection represent Nectaris, if any, and what the correct radiometric age of such samples is. The importance of the age of Nectaris goes far beyond assigning a stratigraphic marker to lunar chronology. Several dynamical models use Nectaris as their pin date, so that this date becomes crucial in understanding the time-correlated effects in the rest of the solar system. The importance of the Nectaris basin age, coupled with its nearside, mid-latitude location, make remnants of the impact-melt sheet an attractive target for a future mission, either for in-situ dating or for sample return. We have started exploring this possibility. We have begun a consortium data-analysis effort bringing multiple datasets and analysis methods to bear on these putative impact-melt deposits to characterize their extent, elemental composition and mineralogy, maturity and geologic setting, and to identify potential landing sites that meet both operational safety and science requirements

The role of high frequency intra-daily data, daily range and implied volatility in multi-period Value-at-Risk forecasting

In this paper, we assess the informational content of daily range, realized variance, realized bipower variation, two time scale realized variance, realized range and implied volatility in daily, weekly, biweekly and monthly out-of-sample Value-at-Risk (VaR) predictions. We use the recently proposed Realized GARCH model combined with the skewed student distribution for the innovations process and a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to produce the multi-period VaR estimates. The VaR forecasts are evaluated in terms of statistical and regulatory accuracy as well as capital efficiency. Our empirical findings, based on the S&P 500 stock index, indicate that almost all realized and implied volatility measures can produce statistically and regulatory precise VaR forecasts across forecasting horizons, with the implied volatility being especially accurate in monthly VaR forecasts. The daily range produces inferior forecasting results in terms of regulatory accuracy and Basel II compliance. However, robust realized volatility measures such as the adjusted realized range and the realized bipower variation, which are immune against microstructure noise bias and price jumps respectively, generate superior VaR estimates in terms of capital efficiency, as they minimize the opportunity cost of capital and the Basel II regulatory capital. Our results highlight the importance of robust high frequency intra-daily data based volatility estimators in a multi-step VaR forecasting context as they balance between statistical or regulatory accuracy and capital efficiency

The Necessary Future Of Chiropractic Education: A North American Perspective

The chiropractic educational system in North America is currently in a state of flux. The attempted conversion of some chiropractic schools into "universities" and the want of university affiliation for chiropractic schools suggests that we are searching for a better alternative to the present system. In the early 20th century, the Flexner Report helped transform modern medical education into a discipline that relies on scientific and clinical knowledge. Some have wondered if it is time for a Flexner-type report regarding the education of doctors of chiropractic. This article outlines the current challenges within the chiropractic educational system and proposes positive changes for that system.https://doi.org/10.1186/1746-1340-13-1