Physics-based Residual Kriging for dynamically evolving functional random fields

We present a novel approach named Physics-based Residual Kriging for the statistical prediction of spatially dependent functional data. It incorporates a physical model—expressed by a partial differential equation—within a Universal Kriging setting through a geostatistical modelization of the residuals with respect to the physical model. The approach is extended to deal with sequential problems, where samples of functional data become available along consecutive time intervals, in a context where the physical and stochastic processes generating them evolve, as time intervals succeed one another. An incremental modeling is used to account for both these dynamics and the misfit between previous predictions and actual observations. We apply Physics-based Residual Kriging to forecast production rates of wells operating in a mature reservoir according to a given drilling schedule. We evaluate the predictive errors of the method in two different case studies. The first deals with a single-phase reservoir where production is supported by fluid injection, while the second considers again a single-phase reservoir but the production is driven by rock compaction

Psychological assessment of obese patients from guidelines to real world

Abstract: Major scientific guidelines on obesity medical management recognize the importance of assessing issues such as eating behaviors, motivation to change and psychopathologies that may interfere with optimal weight loss and long term maintenance. However it is an open question if the results of the assessment are really taken into account in the choice of the treatment and which are the most useful instruments in assessing obese patients. At least three surveys have attempted to characterize common practices that constitute the preoperative psychological consultation for obese patients (Bauchowitz et al., 2005; Fabricatore, et al. 2006; Walfishet al. 2007), but perhaps the strongest conclusion is that no practice is universal. Italian guidelines on obesity treatment (LIGIO, 1999) only contain general indications for instruments useful in psychological assessment . In this workshop we will compare the sets of assessment tools used in a sample of 9 eating disorder centers in Northern Italy with those reported in these three surveys The tests and procedures selected for the evaluation depend on the domains the consultant believes are important to assess. Available guidelines do not recommend the use of any specific psychological assessment tool. Since we consider that not only psychopathological but also psychological factors influence the choice of a specific therapy, we will propose and discuss with the participants a set of tools which could be useful to assess both aspects