Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57211/1/wp831 .pd

Scalar Bilepton Dark Matter

In this work we show that 3-3-1 model with right-handed neutrinos has a natural weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark mater candidate. It is a complex scalar with mass of order of some hundreds of GeV which carries two units of lepton number, a scalar bilepton. This makes it a very peculiar WIMP, very distinct from Supersymmetric or Extra-dimension candidates. Besides, although we have to make some reasonable assumptions concerning the several parameters in the model, no fine tunning is required in order to get the correct dark matter abundance. We also analyze the prospects for WIMP direct detection by considering recent and projected sensitivities for WIMP-nucleon elastic cross section from CDMS and XENON Collaborations.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures, uses iopart.cls, same text as published version with a small different arrangement of figure

FUSE and HST/STIS far-ultraviolet observations of AM Herculis in an extended low state

We have obtained FUSE and HST/STIS time-resolved spectroscopy of the polar AM Herculis during a deep low state. The spectra are entirely dominated by the emission of the white dwarf. Both the far-ultraviolet (FUV) flux as well as the spectral shape vary substantially over the orbital period, with maximum flux occurring at the same phase as during the high state. The variations are due to the presence of a hot spot on the white dwarf, which we model quantitatively. The white dwarf parameters can be determined from a spectral fit to the faint phase data, when the hot spot is self-eclipsed. Adopting the distance of 79+8-6pc determined by Thorstensen, we find an effective temperature of 19800+-700K and a mass of Mwd=0.78+0.12-0.17Msun. The hot spot has a lower temperature than during the high state, ~34000-40000K, but covers a similar area, ~10% of the white dwarf surface. Low state FUSE and STIS spectra taken during four different epochs in 2002/3 show no variation of the FUV flux level or spectral shape, implying that the white dwarf temperature and the hot spot temperature, size, and location do not depend on the amount of time the system has spent in the low state. Possible explanations are ongoing accretion at a low level, or deep heating, both alternatives have some weaknesses that we discuss. No photospheric metal absorption lines are detected in the FUSE and STIS spectra, suggesting that the average metal abundances in the white dwarf atmosphere are lower than 1e-3 times their solar values.Comment: ApJ in press, 12 pages, 11 figure

Towards a modular language curriculum for using tasks

Task-based language teaching (TBLT) and task-supported language teaching (TSLT) are often seen as incompatible as they draw on different theories of language learning and language teaching. The position adopted in this article, however, is that both approaches are needed especially in instructional contexts where ‘pure’ task-based teaching may be problematic for various reasons. The article makes a case for a modular curriculum consisting of separate (i.e. non-integrated) task-based and structure-based components. Different curriculum models are considered in the light of what is known about how a second language is learned. The model that is proposed assumes the importance of developing fluency first. It consists of a primary task-based module implemented with focus-on-form (Long, 1991) and, once a basic fluency has been achieved, supported by a secondary structural module to provide for explicit accuracy-oriented work to counteract learned selective attention (N. Ellis, 2006): one of the main sources of persistent error. The article also addresses the content and grading of the task-based and structural modules. It considers the factors that need to be considered in the vertical and horizontal grading of tasks but also points out that, for the time being, syllabus designers will have to draw on their experience and intuition as much as on research to make decisions about how to sequence tasks. An argument is presented for treating the structural component as a checklist rather than as a syllabus so as to allow teachers to address selectively those features that are found to be problematic for their students when they perform tasks

Discovery of an Unusual Dwarf Galaxy in the Outskirts of the Milky Way

In this Letter, we announce the discovery of a new dwarf galaxy, Leo T, in the Local Group. It was found as a stellar overdensity in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 5 (SDSS DR5). The color-magnitude diagram of Leo T shows two well-defined features, which we interpret as a red giant branch and a sequence of young, massive stars. As judged from fits to the color-magnitude diagram, it lies at a distance of about 420 kpc and has an intermediate-age stellar population with a metallicity of [Fe/H]= -1.6, together with a young population of blue stars of age of 200 Myr. There is a compact cloud of neutral hydrogen with mass roughly 10^5 solar masses and radial velocity 35 km/s coincident with the object visible in the HIPASS channel maps. Leo T is the smallest, lowest luminosity galaxy found to date with recent star-formation. It appears to be a transition object similar to, but much lower luminosity than, the Phoenix dwarf.Comment: Ap J (Letters) in press, the subject of an SDSS press release toda

Warfare, Fiscal Capacity, and Performance

We exploit differences in casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to estimate the impact of fiscal capacity on economic performance. In the past, states fought different amounts of external conflicts, of various lengths and magnitudes. To raise the revenues to wage wars, states made fiscal innovations, which persisted and helped to shape current fiscal institutions. Economic historians claim that greater fiscal capacity was the key long-run institutional change brought about by historical conflicts. Using casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to instrument for current fiscal institutions, we estimate substantial impacts of fiscal capacity on GDP per worker. The results are robust to a broad range of specifications, controls, and sub-samples

Discrete symmetries, invisible axion and lepton number symmetry in an economic 3-3-1 model

We show that Peccei-Quinn and lepton number symmetries can be a natural outcome in a 3-3-1 model with right-handed neutrinos after imposing a Z_11 x Z_2 symmetry. This symmetry is suitably accommodated in this model when we augmented its spectrum by including merely one singlet scalar field. We work out the breaking of the Peccei-Quinn symmetry, yielding the axion, and study the phenomenological consequences. The main result of this work is that the solution to the strong CP problem can be implemented in a natural way, implying an invisible axion phenomenologically unconstrained, free of domain wall formation and constituting a good candidate for the cold dark matter.Comment: 17 pages, Revtex