An alternative measure of inflation

The author proposes an alternative measure of inflation that captures the intuition behind the use of "core" measures. Inflation is modeled as an unobserved factor affecting the components of an aggregate price index (including food and energy). The common component, estimated using Kalman filtering, resembles usual measures of core inflation; its extrapolation can be used to improve performance in forecasting core inflation.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy

Lessons from the history of money

This article looks at eight centuries of monetary history and asks: What happened and what have we learned? Money evolved from commodity-based to purely fiduciary, and in the trial-and-error process, governments learned some basic truths about price stability and the management of a sound currency.Money ; Coinage

The recession of 1937 - a cautionary tale

This article reviews the competing explanations offered for the recession of 1937, which interrupted the recovery from the Great Depression. One explanation, increases in labor costs due to the New Deal's industrial policies, fails to account for the full extent of the downturn and for the ensuing recovery. In contrast, monetary policy and fiscal policy seem to capture the downturn—although not its precise timing—and the recovery.Recessions ; Monetary policy

Americans are not saving: should we worry?

Saving and investment

Following the yellow brick road: how the United States adopted the gold standard

The United States, with some difficulty, adopted the gold standard in the late nineteenth century, thus pegging the dollar to the pound sterling and other currencies. Some have argued it was mistake, others that it was inevitable. This article recounts the historical background and uses a model to shed light on the choices faced by policymakers of the time.Bimetallism ; Gold ; Money

Avoiding a meltdown: managing the value of small change

To prevent a shortage of small change, the U.S. Department of the Treasury recently prohibited the melting and exportation of pennies and other coins. The problem arises because pennies and nickels are made of inappropriately expensive material, and there is or soon will be a profit to be made from transferring their content to alternative uses. The author provides a historical context for the problem of small change and discusses possible remediesCoinage

Poor hand or poor play? the rise and fall of inflation in the U.S.

Inflation in the U.S. rose in the 1970s and fell in the 1980s and 1990s. The conventional story attributes this pattern to changes in monetary policy. Policymakers made errors and learned from them. This article presents the story and existing alternatives that emphasize instead changes beyond the Fed's control. The author also reviews the recent empirical literature on the role played by changes in luck versus changes in policy and finds substantial evidence for both.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy

Dynamic pricing with constant demand elasticity

The model of Gallego and van Ryzin (1994) is specialized to the case of constant elasticity of demand. A closed form is developed, which has an even simpler form than that arising with exponential demand, and possesses an excellent approximation. It is shown in this environment that monopoly is efficient, which means that all the behavior usually attributed to monopoly pricing is actually a consequence of efficient pricing and would arise even in a perfectly competitive environment. If the initial supply is not too large, it is shown that consumers have no incentive to delay their purchases in order to get a lower price at the average inventory prevailing at any time

Dollarization in Argentina

Several countries are seriously considering the abandonment of their currency and its formal replacement with the U.S. dollar. Since 1991, Argentina has backed its currency with 100 percent reserves and successfully pegged it to the dollar. In doing so, it has already grappled with many issues that confront would-be adopters of the dollar. Moving to full-fledged dollarization might offer a solution to recurring crises that are partly driven by expectations that Argentina might abandon its peg.Argentina ; Dollar ; Money

Dollarization in Argentina

Argentina ; Money ; Gross domestic product