Budget 2009: tightening the squeeze?

The outlook for the public finances appears significantly weaker than the Treasury predicted in the November 2008 Pre-Budget Report (PBR). This will have an important bearing on the two key tax and spending decisions that Chancellor Alistair Darling will have to take in his Budget statement on 22 April: whether to announce an additional short-term stimulus to help support the economy and whether to announce an additional long- term tightening to help repair the public finances. This Briefing Note sets out illustrative projections for the outlook for government borrowing and debt over the next few years. It then assesses by how much this or a future government might need to cut existing public spending plans and/or increase taxes to ensure that the outlook for public sector borrowing was no worse than that laid out in the PBR. The analysis in this Briefing Note builds on the detailed forecasts in the January 2009 IFS Green Budget. It does not re-estimate the Green Budget forecasts, but instead makes some broad-brush adjustments to them to reflect new information and analysis available since the PBR

The value of teachers' pensions

As private sector employers have moved away from providing final salary defined benefit (DB) pensions to their employees, attention has increasingly focused on the public sector's continued provision of such pensions and the value of these pension promises to public sector employees. The estimated underlying liabilities of such plans have increased sharply in recent years, at least in part due to unanticipated increases in longevity. This has led to reforms of all the major public sector pension schemes, the net result of which has been to reduce the level of benefits offered by the schemes (predominantly to new, rather than existing members). This paper examines, in the context of the Teachers' Pension Scheme (TPS), how much the pension promises are worth and what effect the change in scheme rules has had on them. This paper also addresses a number of other issues that are important when valuing DB pension rights and their relation to overall remuneration. First, how increases in current pay feed through into pension values. Second, how the age profile of earnings affects the profile of pension accrual. Finally, how the value of pension rights in DB schemes compares to that in a stylised defined contribution (DC) scheme. The figures presented in this paper relate specifically to the composition of members and the specific scheme rules of the TPS. However, the issues raised apply equally to other DB schemes, both public and private sector

What is a public sector pension worth?

We measure accruals in defined benefit (DB) pension plans for public and private sector workers in Britain, using typical differences in scheme rules and sector-specific lifetime age-earnings profiles by sex and educational group. We show not just that coverage by DB pension plans is greater in the public sector, but that median pension accruals as a % of salary are almost 5% higher among DB-covered public sector workers than covered private sector workers. This is largely driven by earlier normal pension (retirement) ages. For workers of different ages in the two sectors, marginal accruals also vary as a result of differences in earnings profiles across the sectors. The differences in earnings profiles across sectors should induce caution in using calculated coefficients on wages from cross sections of data in order to estimate sectoral wage effects

Britain's fiscal squeeze: the choices ahead

The economic and financial crisis that has unfolded over the last two years has caused a dramatic deterioration in the UK's public finances, with public sector borrowing set to peak this year at a level not seen since the Second World War and public sector indebtedness set to climb to levels not seen since the late 1960s. With the next general election less than a year away, the Government and the main opposition parties alike will be under pressure to offer more detailed proposals to repair the public finances. This note discusses some of the key questions all the parties will have to grapple with

The UK public finances: ready for recession?

Summary Neither the current Labour government nor the previous Conservative one can look back over their respective terms of office as periods of great success in fiscal management. Both started by strengthening their underlying budget balances for three years after taking office, but both then allowed them to drift steadily back into the red. This meant that they were already borrowing significant amounts when the onset of recession required them to borrow more. Labour is entering this recession with a similar structural budget deficit to the one that it inherited from the Conservatives, but with a smaller underlying debt. It remains to be seen whether the structural budget deficit will deteriorate as far under Labour as it did under the Conservatives, but debt is very likely to rise above the peak it recorded under the Conservatives (even without the impact of recent bank nationalisations and recapitalisations). Labour recorded a similar structural budget deficit in the year before this recession to that which the Conservatives recorded in the year before the last. However, the structural deficit appears to have deteriorated more sharply in the early phase of the downturn than it did under the Conservatives and as a result is set to be higher in the first year of recession than it was under the Conservatives. This largely reflects the particular impact of the credit crunch and falls in the stock market and housing market, rather than budget decisions. Labour is also going into the recession with a significantly higher level of debt than the Conservatives did. Turning to the international context, we are entering the current recession with one of the largest structural budget deficits in the industrial world and a debt level that may be among the smallest in the G7 but which is larger than that of most industrial countries. We have done less to reduce our structural budget deficit and less to reduce our debt than most other industrial countries since Labour came to office

Final evaluation of the saving gateway 2 pilot: main report

The Saving Gateway is a government initiative aimed at encouraging savings behaviour among people who do not usually save. Each pound placed into a Saving Gateway account is matched by the government at a certain rate and up to a monthly contribution limit. Matching provides a transparent and understandable incentive for eligible individuals to place funds in an account

A comparison of intermediate and long-acting insulins in people with type 2 diabetes starting insulin: an observational database study

AimsInsulin is normally added to oral glucose-lowering drugs in people with type 2 diabetes when glycaemic control becomes suboptimal. We evaluated outcomes in people starting insulin therapy with neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH), detemir, glargine or premixed insulins.MethodsInsulin-naïve people with type 2 diabetes (n = 8009), ≥ 35 years old, HbA(1c) ≥ 6.5% and begun on NPH (n = 1463), detemir (n = 357), glargine (n = 2197) or premix (n = 3992), were identified from a UK database of primary care records (The Health Improvement Network). Unadjusted and multivariate-adjusted analyses were conducted, with persistence of insulin therapy assessed by survival analysis.ResultsIn the study population (n = 4337), baseline HbA(1c) was 9.5 ± 1.6%, falling to 8.4 ± 1.5% over 12 months (change -1.1 ± 1.8%, p Discussion and conclusionIn routine clinical practice, people with type 2 diabetes commenced on NPH experienced a modest disadvantage in glycaemic control after 12 months compared with other insulins. When comparing the insulins, glargine achieved best HbA(1c) reduction, while premix showed greatest weight gain and the highest dose requirement, but had the best persistence of therapy.J. Gordon, R. D. Pockett, A. P. Tetlow, P. McEwan, P. D. Hom

Switching from premixed insulin to glargine-based insulin regimen improves glycaemic control in patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: a retrospective primary care-based analysis

Background: Insulin glargine (glargine) and premixed insulins (premix) are alternative insulin treatments. This analysis evaluated glycaemic control in 528 patients with type 1 (n = 183) or type 2 (n = 345) diabetes, after switching from premix to a glargine-based regimen, using unselected general practice (GP) data. Methods: Data for this retrospective observational analysis were extracted from a UK GP database (The Health Improvement Network). Patients were required to have at least 12 months of available data, before and after, switching from premix to a glargine-based regimen. The principal analysis was the change in HbA1c after 12 months of treatment with glargine; secondary analyses included change in weight, bolus usage and total daily insulin dose. Inconsistent reporting of hypoglycemic episodes precludes reliable assessment of this outcome. Multivariate analyses were used to adjust for baseline characteristics and confounding variables. Results: Both cohorts showed significant reduction in mean HbA1c 12 months after the switch: by -0.67% (p < 0.001) in the type 1 cohort and by -0.53% (p < 0.001) in the type 2 cohort (adjusted data). The size of HbA1c improvement was positively correlated with baseline HbA1c; patients with a baseline HbA1c ≥ 10% had the greatest mean reduction in HbA1c, by -1.7% (p < 0.001) and -1.2% (p < 0.001), respectively. The proportion of patients receiving co-bolus prescriptions increased in the type 1 (mean 24.6% to 95.1%, p < 0.001) and type 2 (mean 16.2% to 73.9%, p < 0.001) cohorts. There was no significant change in weight in either cohort. Total mean insulin use increased in type 2 diabetes patients (from 0.67 ± 1.35 U/Kg to 0.88 ± 1.33 U/Kg, p < 0.001) with a slight decrease in type 1 diabetes patients (from 1.04 ± 2.51 U/Kg to 0.98 ± 2.58 U/Kg, p < 0.001). Conclusion: In everyday practice, patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled by premix insulins experienced significant improvement in glycaemic control over 12 months after switching to a glargine-based insulin regimen. These findings support the use of a basal-bolus glargine-based regimen in patients poorly controlled on premix.Peter Sharplin, Jason Gordon, John R Peters, Anthony P Tetlow, Andrea J Longman and Philip McEwa

The Environmental Context and Function of Burnt-Mounds : New Studies of Irish Fulachtaí Fiadh

The authors acknowledge funding from The Leverhulme Trust (F/00144/AI) and assistance from a large number of individuals including; Margaret Gowen (access to sites and assistance throughout),A. Ames, H, Essex (pollen processing), S. Rouillard & R. Smith (illustrations), C. McDermott, S. Bergerbrandt, all the staff of Margaret Gowen & Co. Ltd, TVAS Ireland and CRDS. Excavation works and some post-excavation analysis was paid for my Bord Gáis and the National Roads Authority (now Transport Infrastructure Ireland). Thanks also to David Smith for access to the Maureen Girling collection and assistance with identifications.Peer reviewedPostprintPostprin