Estimation of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses Caused by a Flood With Long‐Lasting Inundation: Application to the 2011 Thailand Flood

River floods are common natural disasters that cause serious economic damage worldwide. In addition to direct economic damage, such as the destruction of physical assets, floods with long‐lasting inundation cause direct and indirect economic losses within and outside the affected area. Direct economic losses include loss of opportunity, due to interruption of business activities, and the costs associated with emergency measures such as cleaning, while indirect economic losses affect sectors within the trade and supply network. Few studies have explicitly estimated direct and indirect economic losses in several sectors, due to the difficulty of modeling inundation depth and period at finer scales. Here we developed a global modeling framework to estimate the direct and indirect economic losses associated with floods using a computable general equilibrium model and a global river and inundation model, which can simulate the flood extent, depth, and period. Application of the method to the 2011 Thailand flood demonstrated that the estimated economic losses due to business interruption in the industry and service sectors totaled $14.7 billion, which was about two thirds of the estimated direct economic damage caused by the flood ($22.0 billion). The estimated indirect economic losses reduced the gross domestic product of Thailand by 4.81% in 2011, without considering transboundary effects, and will cause more than 0.5% reduction in gross domestic product even in 2030, resulting in $55.3 billion of total losses from 2011 to 2030. Comprehensive estimation of direct and indirect economic losses facilitates understanding of various types of flood‐related economic risks during and after a flood

Sex differences in the association between plasma copeptin and incident type 2 diabetes: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Vasopressin plays a role in osmoregulation, glucose homeostasis and inflammation. Therefore, plasma copeptin, the stable C-terminal portion of the precursor of vasopressin, has strong potential as a biomarker for the cardiometabolic syndrome and diabetes. Previous results were contradictory, which may be explained by differences between men and women in responsiveness of the vasopressin system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of copeptin for prediction of future type 2 diabetes in men and women separately. METHODS: From the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study, 4,063 women and 3,909 men without diabetes at baseline were included. A total of 208 women and 288 men developed diabetes during a median follow-up of 7.7 years. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models, we observed a stronger association of copeptin with risk of future diabetes in women (OR 1.49 [95% CI 1.24, 1.79]) than in men (OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.85, 1.19]) (p (interaction) < 0.01). The addition of copeptin to the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) clinical model improved the discriminative value (C-statistic,+0.007, p = 0.02) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] = 0.004, p < 0.01) in women. However, we observed no improvement in men. The additive value of copeptin in women was maintained when other independent predictors, such as glucose, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and 24 h urinary albumin excretion (UAE), were included in the model. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The association of plasma copeptin with the risk of developing diabetes was stronger in women than in men. Plasma copeptin alone, and along with existing biomarkers (glucose, hs-CRP and UAE), significantly improved the risk prediction for diabetes in women

Intrinsic activity in the fly brain gates visual information during behavioral choices

The small insect brain is often described as an input/output system that executes reflex-like behaviors. It can also initiate neural activity and behaviors intrinsically, seen as spontaneous behaviors, different arousal states and sleep. However, less is known about how intrinsic activity in neural circuits affects sensory information processing in the insect brain and variability in behavior. Here, by simultaneously monitoring Drosophila's behavioral choices and brain activity in a flight simulator system, we identify intrinsic activity that is associated with the act of selecting between visual stimuli. We recorded neural output (multiunit action potentials and local field potentials) in the left and right optic lobes of a tethered flying Drosophila, while its attempts to follow visual motion (yaw torque) were measured by a torque meter. We show that when facing competing motion stimuli on its left and right, Drosophila typically generate large torque responses that flip from side to side. The delayed onset (0.1-1 s) and spontaneous switch-like dynamics of these responses, and the fact that the flies sometimes oppose the stimuli by flying straight, make this behavior different from the classic steering reflexes. Drosophila, thus, seem to choose one stimulus at a time and attempt to rotate toward its direction. With this behavior, the neural output of the optic lobes alternates; being augmented on the side chosen for body rotation and suppressed on the opposite side, even though the visual input to the fly eyes stays the same. Thus, the flow of information from the fly eyes is gated intrinsically. Such modulation can be noise-induced or intentional; with one possibility being that the fly brain highlights chosen information while ignoring the irrelevant, similar to what we know to occur in higher animals

Characterization of ERK Docking Domain Inhibitors that Induce Apoptosis by Targeting Rsk-1 and Caspase-9

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The extracellular signal-regulated kinase-1 and 2 (ERK1/2) proteins play an important role in cancer cell proliferation and survival. ERK1/2 proteins also are important for normal cell functions. Thus, anti-cancer therapies that block all ERK1/2 signaling may result in undesirable toxicity to normal cells. As an alternative, we have used computational and biological approaches to identify low-molecular weight compounds that have the potential to interact with unique ERK1/2 docking sites and selectively inhibit interactions with substrates involved in promoting cell proliferation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Colony formation and water soluble tetrazolium salt (WST) assays were used to determine the effects of test compounds on cell proliferation. Changes in phosphorylation and protein expression in response to test compound treatment were examined by immunoblotting and <it>in vitro </it>kinase assays. Apoptosis was determined with immunoblotting and caspase activity assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>In silico </it>modeling was used to identify compounds that were structurally similar to a previously identified parent compound, called <b>76</b>. From this screen, several compounds, termed <b>76.2</b>, <b>76.3</b>, and <b>76.4 </b>sharing a common thiazolidinedione core with an aminoethyl side group, inhibited proliferation and induced apoptosis of HeLa cells. However, the active compounds were less effective in inhibiting proliferation or inducing apoptosis in non-transformed epithelial cells. Induction of HeLa cell apoptosis appeared to be through intrinsic mechanisms involving caspase-9 activation and decreased phosphorylation of the pro-apoptotic Bad protein. Cell-based and <it>in vitro </it>kinase assays indicated that compounds <b>76.3 </b>and <b>76.4 </b>directly inhibited ERK-mediated phosphorylation of caspase-9 and the p90Rsk-1 kinase, which phosphorylates and inhibits Bad, more effectively than the parent compound <b>76</b>. Further examination of the test compound's mechanism of action showed little effects on related MAP kinases or other cell survival proteins.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings support the identification of a class of ERK-targeted molecules that can induce apoptosis in transformed cells by inhibiting ERK-mediated phosphorylation and inactivation of pro-apoptotic proteins.</p

The Central Clock Neurons Regulate Lipid Storage in Drosophila

A proper balance of lipid breakdown and synthesis is essential for achieving energy homeostasis as alterations in either of these processes can lead to pathological states such as obesity. The regulation of lipid metabolism is quite complex with multiple signals integrated to control overall triglyceride levels in metabolic tissues. Based upon studies demonstrating effects of the circadian clock on metabolism, we sought to determine if the central clock cells in the Drosophila brain contribute to lipid levels in the fat body, the main nutrient storage organ of the fly. Here, we show that altering the function of the Drosophila central clock neurons leads to an increase in fat body triglycerides. We also show that although triglyceride levels are not affected by age, they are increased by expression of the amyloid-beta protein in central clock neurons. The effect on lipid storage seems to be independent of circadian clock output as changes in triglycerides are not always observed in genetic manipulations that result in altered locomotor rhythms. These data demonstrate that the activity of the central clock neurons is necessary for proper lipid storage

A Modern Mode of Activation for Nucleic Acid Enzymes

Through evolution, enzymes have developed subtle modes of activation in order to ensure the sufficiently high substrate specificity required by modern cellular metabolism. One of these modes is the use of a target-dependent module (i.e. a docking domain) such as those found in signalling kinases. Upon the binding of the target to a docking domain, the substrate is positioned within the catalytic site. The prodomain acts as a target-dependent module switching the kinase from an off state to an on state. As compared to the allosteric mode of activation, there is no need for the presence of a third partner. None of the ribozymes discovered to date have such a mode of activation, nor does any other known RNA. Starting from a specific on/off adaptor for the hepatitis delta virus ribozyme, that differs but has a mechanism reminiscent of this signalling kinase, we have adapted this mode of activation, using the techniques of molecular engineering, to both catalytic RNAs and DNAs exhibiting various activities. Specifically, we adapted three cleaving ribozymes (hepatitis delta virus, hammerhead and hairpin ribozymes), a cleaving 10-23 deoxyribozyme, a ligating hairpin ribozyme and an artificially selected capping ribozyme. In each case, there was a significant gain in terms of substrate specificity. Even if this mode of control is unreported for natural catalytic nucleic acids, its use needs not be limited to proteinous enzymes. We suggest that the complexity of the modern cellular metabolism might have been an important selective pressure in this evolutionary process

Cadherin-23 Mediates Heterotypic Cell-Cell Adhesion between Breast Cancer Epithelial Cells and Fibroblasts

In the early stages of breast cancer metastasis, epithelial cells penetrate the basement membrane and invade the surrounding stroma, where they encounter fibroblasts. Paracrine signaling between fibroblasts and epithelial tumor cells contributes to the metastatic cascade, but little is known about the role of adhesive contacts between these two cell types in metastasis. Here we show that MCF-7 breast cancer epithelial cells and normal breast fibroblasts form heterotypic adhesions when grown together in co-culture, as evidenced by adhesion assays. PCR and immunoblotting show that both cell types express multiple members of the cadherin superfamily, including the atypical cadherin, cadherin-23, when grown in isolation and in co-culture. Immunocytochemistry experiments show that cadherin-23 localizes to homotypic adhesions between MCF-7 cells and also to heterotypic adhesions between the epithelial cells and fibroblasts, and antibody inhibition and RNAi experiments show that cadherin-23 plays a role in mediating these adhesive interactions. Finally, we show that cadherin-23 is upregulated in breast cancer tissue samples, and we hypothesize that heterotypic adhesions mediated by this atypical cadherin may play a role in the early stages of metastasis

Preliminary evaluation of translated and culturally adapted internet-delivered cognitive therapy for social anxiety disorder: multicenter, single-arm trial in japan

Background: Internet-delivered cognitive therapy for social anxiety disorder (iCT-SAD), which is a therapist-guided modular web-based treatment, has shown strong efficacy and acceptability in English-language randomized controlled trials in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong. However, it is not yet known whether iCT-SAD can retain its efficacy following linguistic translation and cultural adaptation of treatment contents and implementation in other countries such as Japan. Objective: This study aimed to examine the preliminary efficacy and acceptability of the translated and culturally adapted iCT-SAD in Japanese clinical settings. Methods: This multicenter, single-arm trial recruited 15 participants with social anxiety disorder. At the time of recruitment, participants were receiving usual psychiatric care but had not shown improvement in their social anxiety and required additional treatment. iCT-SAD was provided in combination with usual psychiatric care for 14 weeks (treatment phase) and for a subsequent 3-month follow-up phase that included up to 3 booster sessions. The primary outcome measure was the self-report version of the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale. The secondary outcome measures examined social anxiety–related psychological processes, taijin kyofusho (the fear of offending others), depression, generalized anxiety, and general functioning. The assessment points for the outcome measures were baseline (week 0), midtreatment (week 8), posttreatment (week 15; primary assessment point), and follow-up (week 26). Acceptability was measured using the dropout rate from the treatment, the level of engagement with the program (the rate of module completion), and participants’ feedback about their experience with the iCT-SAD. Results: Evaluation of the outcome measures data showed that iCT-SAD led to significant improvements in social anxiety symptoms during the treatment phase (P<.001; Cohen d=3.66), and these improvements were maintained during the follow-up phase. Similar results were observed for the secondary outcome measures. At the end of the treatment phase, 80% (12/15) of participants demonstrated reliable improvement, and 60% (9/15) of participants demonstrated remission from social anxiety. Moreover, 7% (1/15) of participants dropped out during treatment, and 7% (1/15) of participants declined to undergo the follow-up phase after completing the treatment. No serious adverse events occurred. On average, participants completed 94% of the modules released to them. Participant feedback was positive and highlighted areas of strength in treatment, and it included further suggestions to improve suitability for Japanese settings. Conclusions: Translated and culturally adapted iCT-SAD demonstrated promising initial efficacy and acceptability for Japanese clients with social anxiety disorder. A randomized controlled trial is required to examine this more robustly