Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks-trade liberlisation and a decline in remittances from abroad-on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reducation in the absesnce of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and ruralhouseholds. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberlisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduced welfare in urban households but rural households still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. the combined shock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than for households in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and reduction in poverty level in rural households in less than the welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberlisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberlisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the posve impact of trade liberlisation dominates the negative impact of a decline in remittances. It shows that teh decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in pakistan.Trade, Remittances, Poverty, Pakistan

Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan

Foreign capital inflows (FKI) help an economy by financing the imbalance between income and expenditure. However, their impact on poverty in the recipient economy is a controversial issue. In this study, we examine the impact on poverty in two different scenarios (1) labour is homogeneous (2) labour is heterogeneous. The Computable General Equilibrium model for Pakistan is used to conduct simulations in order to assess the impact of an increase in foreign capital on poverty both in the presence and in the absence of trade liberalisation. Several interesting results emerge from the study. First, FKI tends to reduce poverty in the presence as well as in the absence of trade liberalisation when labour is homogeneous. However, poverty reduction appears to be larger in the presence of trade liberalisation. Second, when labour is differentiated according to qualification and is assumed to be sector-specific, in the absence of trade liberalisation a higher proportion of benefits of FKI accrue to skilled labour and poverty increases by all measures for both urban and rural households. In the presence of trade liberalisation, FKI benefits unskilled labour more, and poverty is decreased irrespective of the choice of poverty indicatorsCapital inflow, Poverty, Pakistan

Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan : The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks - trade liberalisation and a decline in remittances from abroad- on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reduction in the absence of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and rural households. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberalisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduces welfare in urban households but rural household still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. The combined stock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberalisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of decline in remittances. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in Pakistan.This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks - trade liberalisation and a decline in remittances from abroad- on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reduction in the absence of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. In addition, poverty reduces by a larger percentage in urban households than in rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and rural households. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberalisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduces welfare in urban households but rural household still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. The combined stock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberalisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of decline in remittances. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in Pakistan.Trade Liberalisation, remittance, poverty, households

Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

This paper explores the impact of two shocks, trade liberalisation policies and decline in remittances, on welfare and poverty in Pakistan. It begins by reviewing the economy, which reveals that during the Nineties although import tariffs were reduced by 55 percent, poverty however remained higher in this period than in the Eighties. At the same time, Pakistan has experienced a slow down in the inflow of remittances, which reduces the incomes of households and puts pressure on the exchange rate resulting in reduction in the inflow of imports despite a reduction in import duties. Thus, in the absence of the effects of decline in remittances, the analysis of the impact of trade liberalisation policies may render biased results. This study overcomes this constriction and analyses the impact of trade liberalisation policies in the absence and presence of decline in remittances in a CGE framework with all the features necessary for trade policy analysis with poverty and remittances linkages. The simulation results show that a decline in remittances reduces the gains from trade liberalisation. The negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. But, the positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of a decline in remittances in the case of rural areas. Poverty rises in Pakistan as a whole. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in Pakistan during the Nineties.Pakistan, Remittances, Trade Policy, CGE, Poverty

Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan

Foreign capital inflows (FKI) help an economy by financing the imbalance between income and expenditure. However, their impact on poverty in the recipient economy is a controversial issue. In this study, we examine the impact on poverty in two different scenarios: (1) labour is homogeneous; (2) labour is heterogeneous. The Computable General Equilibrium model for Pakistan is used to conduct simulations in order to assess the impact of an increase in foreign capital on poverty both in the presence and in the absence of trade liberalisation. Several interesting results emerge from the study. First, FKI tends to reduce poverty in the presence as well as in the absence of trade liberalisation when labour is homogeneous. However, poverty reduction appears to be larger in the presence of trade liberalisation. Second, when labour is differentiated according to qualification and is assumed to be sector-specific, in the absence of trade liberalisation a higher proportion of benefits of FKI accrue to skilled labour and poverty increases by all measures for both urban and rural households. In the presence of trade liberalisation, FKI benefits unskilled labour more, and poverty is decreased irrespective of the choice of poverty indicators.Capital inflow; Poverty; Pakistan

Hydraulic characteristics of pilot distributaries in the Mirpurkhas, Sanghar and Nawabshah districts, Sindh, Pakistan

Discharge frequency / Hydraulics / Flow / Water loss / Seepage / Water distribution / Pakistan / Sindh / Mirpurkhas / Sanghar / Nawabshah

Similarities Between Classical Timelike Geodesics in a Naked Reissner-Nordstrom Singularity Background and the Behaviour of Electrons in Quantum Theory

It is generally assumed that naked singularities must be physically excluded, as they could otherwise introduce unpredictable influences in their future null cones. Considering geodesics for a naked Reissner-Nordstrom singularity, it is found that the singularity is effectively clothed by its repulsive nature. Regarding electron as naked singularity, the size of the clothed singularity (electron) turns out to be classical electro-magnetic radius of the electron, to an observer falling freely from infinity, initially at rest. The size shrinks for an observer falling freely from infinity, with a positive initial velocity. For geodetic parameters corresponding to negative energy there are trapped geodesics. The similarity of this picture with that arising in the Quantum Theory is discussed.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Maternal characteristics in relation to income in a semi-rural community in Pakistan

Women\u27s health and socioeconomic status is fundamental to development. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship of monthly household income with demographic, nutritional and social characteristics in women living in a semi-rural location near Karachi. Thus 1111 mothers with at least 1 child under 5 years of age were interviewed. Self-reported monthly income was positively associated with gravidity, mid upper-arm circumference, cooking frequency per day and self and spousal literacy; it was negatively associated with number of occupants per room, wood used as cooking fuel, and spouse in a skilled occupation. Income is dependent on non-income factors such as literacy, and the nutritional and reproductive health status of women