The zero-inflated promotion cure rate model applied to financial data on time-to-default

In this paper, we extend the promotion cure rate model studied in Yakovlev and Tsodikov (1996) and Chen et al. (1999) by incorporating an excess of zeros in the modeling. Despite relating covariates to the cure fraction, the current approach does not enable us to relate covariates to the fraction of zeros. The presence of excess of zeros in credit risk survival data stems from a group of loans that became defaulted shortly after the granting process. Through our proposal, all survival data available of customers is modeled with a multinomial logistic link for the three classes of banking customers: (i) individual with an event at the starting time (zero time), (ii) non-susceptible for the event, or (iii) susceptible for the event. The model parameter estimation is reached by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure and Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to assess its finite sample performance

Physico-chemical spectroscopic mapping of the planetary nebula NGC 40 and the 2D_NEB, a new 2D algorithm to study ionised nebulae

In this paper we present an analysis of the physical and chemical conditions of the planetary nebula NGC 40 through spatially-resolved spectroscopic maps. We also introduce a new algorithm --2D_NEB-- based on the well-established IRAF nebular package, which was developed to enable the use of the spectroscopic maps to easily estimate the astrophysical quantities of ionised nebulae. The 2D_NEB was benchmarked, and we clearly show that it works properly, since it compares nicely with the IRAF nebular software. Using this software, we derive the maps of several physical parameters of NGC 40. From these maps, we conclude that Te[NII] shows only a slight temperature variation from region to region, with its values constrained between ~8,000 K and ~9,500 K. Electron densities, on the other hand, have a much more prominent spatial variation, as Ne[SII] values vary from ~1,000 cm^(-3) to ~3,000 cm^(-3). Maps of the chemical abundances also show significant variations. From the big picture of our work, we strongly suggest that analysis with spatial resolution be mandatory for more complete study of the physical and chemical properties of planetary nebulae.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, 8 tables; Accepted for publication in MNRA

Estudio descriptivo del síndrome de burnout en becados de psiquiatría

Burnout syndrome is defined as a response to a chronic emotional stress, whose main features are physical and psychological exhaustion, a cold and depersonalized attitude in the relationship with others and a feeling of inadequacy in the tasks to be performed. Currently it is understood as a social and public health problem, which damages the quality of life of the person who suffers it and decreases the quality of care. Considering the high emotional burden of permanent contact with mental health difficulties, this study aims to explore the levels of risk of professional burnout in a group of doctors pursuing the specialty program in psychiatry. The Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) survey was applied to a total of 22 psychiatry scholars from the University Psychiatric Clinic (in September 2010), and the demographic characteristics were recorded for the subsequent analysis. The average scores obtained in the subscales of Emotional Exhaustion, Depersonalization, and Personal Achievement are analyzed for different subgroups according to the demographic characteristics studied (gender, marital status, previous experience, training program and year of residency).El síndrome burnout se define como una respuesta a un estrés emocional crónico, cuyos rasgos principales son el agotamiento físico y psicológico, una actitud fría y despersonalizada en la relación con los demás y un sentimiento de inadecuación en las tareas que se han de realizar. Actualmente es entendido como un problema social y de salud pública, que daña la calidad de vida de la persona que lo padece y disminuye la calidad asistencial. Considerando la alta carga emocional que supone el contacto permanente con dificultades de salud mental, este estudio tiene como objetivo explorar los niveles de riesgo de desgaste profesional en un grupo de médicos cursando el programa de especialidad en psiquiatría. Se aplicó la encuesta Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) a un total de 22 becados de psiquiatría de la Clínica Psiquiátrica Universitaria (en septiembre 2010), y se registraron las características demográficas para el análisis posterior. Los puntajes promedio obtenidos en las subescalas de agotamiento Emocional, Despersonalización, y Logros Personales se analizan para distintos subgrupos de acuerdo a las características demográficas estudiadas (género, estado civil, experiencia previa, programa de formación y año de beca)

Chemical abundances in the old LMC globular cluster Hodge 11

Context. The study of globular clusters is one of the most powerful ways to learn about a galaxy's chemical evolution and star formation history. They preserve a record of chemical abundances at the time of their formation and are relatively easy to age date. The most detailed knowledge of the chemistry of a star is given by high resolution spectroscopy, which provides accurate abundances for a wide variety of elements, yielding a wealth of information on the various processes involved in the cluster's chemical evolution. Aims: We studied red giant branch (RGB) stars in an old, metal-poor globular cluster of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), Hodge 11 (H11), in order to measure as many elements as possible. The goal is to compare its chemical trends to those in the Milky Way halo and dwarf spheroidal galaxies in order to help understand the formation history of the LMC and our own Galaxy. Methods: We have obtained high resolution VLT/FLAMES spectra of eight RGB stars in H11. The spectral range allowed us to measure a variety of elements, including Fe, Mg, Ca, Ti, Si, Na, O, Ni, Cr, Sc, Mn, Co, Zn, Ba, La, Eu and Y. Results: We derived a mean [Fe/H] = -2.00 \ub1 0.04, in the middle of previous determinations. We found low [\u3b1/Fe] abundances for our targets, more comparable to values found in dwarf spheroidal galaxies than in the Galactic halo, suggesting that if H11 is representative of its ancient populations then the LMC does not represent a good halo building block. Our [Ca/Fe] value is about 0.3 dex less than that of halo stars used to calibrate the Ca IR triplet technique for deriving metallicity. A hint of a Na abundance spread is observed. Its stars lie at the extreme high O, low Na end of the Na:O anti-correlation displayed by Galactic and LMC globular clusters

Early origins of allergy and asthma (ARIES): study protocol for a prospective prenatal birth cohort in Chile

Background Growing evidence shows that atopic dermatitis (AD), food allergy (FA), allergic rhinitis, and asthma are largely determined during the first 1000 days (time elapsed from conception to the 2nd birthday). The ARIES birth cohort aims to determine prenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as genetic and epigenetic factors, that participate in the early setting of immune responses, and the role of these in the later determination of the risk of allergic diseases and asthma in the offspring. Methods We have designed a birth cohort of 250 families with prenatal recruitment (similar to 14 weeks). We will genotype relevant allergy/asthma-associated variants in trios and will perform immunophenotyping and evaluation of allergy biomarkers in cord blood. At 1 and 2 years of age we will assess if infants have developed allergic sensitization, AD, FA, as well as biomarkers of asthma including the asthma predictive index. We will also evaluate how maternal conditions modify immune programming through epigenetic modifications and will then depict newborn epigenetic cues of allergy/asthma risk. Next, we will assess composition/diversity of maternal gut, placenta, breastmilk and infant gut microbiome and their association with immunophenotype and biomarkers at birth, and clinical outcomes at age 1 and 2. Finally, we plan to assess how environmental exposures (perinatal outdoor and indoor pollution, allergens and endotoxin) affect the incidence of allergic sensitization, AD, FA, and risk of asthma. Discussion The in-depth study of the ARIES birth cohort shall provide crucial information to understand the rising incidence of allergies and asthma in developing countries, and hopefully provide cues on how to prevent and treat these diseases.Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT) CONICYT PIA/ANILLOS ACT172097 CONICYT-PIA ANILLO committe

A cluster randomized trial of interferon ß-1a for the reduction of transmission of SARS-Cov-2: protocol for the Containing Coronavirus Disease 19 trial (ConCorD-19)

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 infection rapidly spreads in populations due to the high rates of community transmission. Interrupting the shedding of SARS-CoV-2 may reduce the incidence of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19). Herein we provide a protocol for a cluster randomized trial that will examine the effectiveness of treatment with interferon (IFN) ß-1a compared to standard of care in limiting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Co-primary objectives are to determine whether IFN therapy reduces (a) the proportion of infected cases shedding SARS-CoV-2 at day 11 post randomization and (b) the incidence of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection from index cases to treatment-eligible household post-exposure contacts at day 11 after randomization. Secondary objectives include assessing the impact of IFN treatment on duration of viral clearance, hospitalizations and fatalities, and evaluating the safety of IFN treatment. Methods Three hundred and ten households, each including an index case with a recent COVID-19 diagnosis and at least one asymptomatic treatment-eligible household contact, will be randomized to receive 3 doses of 125 μg IFN ß-1a by subcutaneous administration (days 1, 6, and 11), or standard of care. All participants will be followed until day 29. Discussion The results from this trial will identify whether IFN ß treatment of mild or moderate COVID-19 cases accelerates viral clearance and prevents disease progression and whether IFN ß treatment of post-exposure contacts of COVID-19 cases reduces transmission of infection. Trial Registration: This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04552379; date of registration September 17, 2020

Interferon β-1a ring prophylaxis to reduce household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a cluster randomised clinical trialResearch in context

Summary: Background: Accumulating evidence indicates that an early, robust type 1 interferon (IFN) response to SARS-CoV-2 is important in determining COVID-19 outcomes, with an inadequate IFN response associated with disease severity. Our objective was to examine the prophylactic potential of IFN administration to limit viral transmission. Methods: A cluster randomised open label clinical trial was undertaken to determine the effects of pegylated IFNβ-1a administration on SARS-CoV-2 household transmission between December 3rd, 2020 and June 29th, 2021. Index cases were identified from databases of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 individuals in Santiago, Chile. Households were cluster randomised (stratified by household size and age of index cases) to receive 3 doses of 125 μg subcutaneous pegylated IFNβ-1a (172 households, 607 participants), or standard care (169 households, 565 participants). The statistical team was blinded to treatment assignment until the analysis plan was finalised. Analyses were undertaken to determine effects of treatment on viral shedding and viral transmission. Safety analyses included incidence and severity of adverse events in all treatment eligible participants in the standard care arm, or in the treatment arm with at least one dose administered. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT04552379. Findings: 5154 index cases were assessed for eligibility, 1372 index cases invited to participate, and 341 index cases and their household contacts (n = 831) enrolled. 1172 participants in 341 households underwent randomisation, with 607 assigned to receive IFNβ-1a and 565 to standard care. Based on intention to treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) analyses for the primary endpoints, IFNβ-1a treatment did not affect duration of viral shedding in index cases (absolute risk reduction = −0.2%, 95% CI = −8.46% to 8.06%) and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts (absolute risk reduction = 3.87%, 95% CI = −3.6% to 11.3%). Treatment with IFNβ-1a resulted in significantly more treatment-related adverse events, but no increase in overall adverse events or serious adverse events. Interpretation: Based upon the primary analyses, IFNβ-1a treatment did not affect duration of viral shedding or the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to uninfected contacts within a household. Funding: Biogen PTY Ltd. Supply of interferon as ‘Plegridy (peginterferon beta-1a).’ The study was substantially funded by BHP Holdings Pty Ltd