VHF Radar Observations in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere During a Stratospheric Warming

The SOUSY-VHF-radar was used to carry out measurements during minor and a major stratospheric warming in February and March 1980, respectively. Echoes have been received from the stratosphere up to an altitude of about 30 km continuously during day and night, whereas echoes from the mesosphere were restricted to the daytime and occurred sporadically at different heights within the altitude range from 60 to 90 km. The three dimensional velocity vector was derived from Doppler measurements made in three different antenna beam directions with a height resolution of 1.5 km. In particular, the results obtained during disturbed conditions show the change of the zonal winds at mesospheric heights from westerly to easterly. A spectral analysis reveals a diurnal and a weaker semidiurnal tide of the zonal wind component

Short-term variability in satellite-derived cloud cover and galactic cosmic rays: an update

Previous work by Todd and Kniveton (2001) (TK2001) has indicated a statistically significant association (at the daily timescale) between short-term reductions in galactic cosmic rays, specifically Forbush decrease (FD) events, and reduced cloud cover, mainly over Antarctica (as recorded in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D1 data). This study presents an extension of the previous work using an extended dataset of FD events and ISCCP cloud data over the period 1983-2000, to establish how stable the observed cloud anomalies are. Composite analysis of ISCCP data based on a sample of 32 FD events (excluding those coincident with solar proton events) indicates cloud anomalies with a very similar space/time structure to that previously reported, although of smaller magnitude. Substantial reductions in high level cloud (up to 12% for zonal mean, compared to 18% reported by TK2001) are observed over the high geomagnetic latitudes, especially of the southern hemisphere immediately following FD event onset. Largest anomalies are centred on the Antarctic plateau region during austral winter. However, the largest cloud anomalies occur where the accuracy of the ISCCP cloud retrievals is likely to be lowest, such that the results must be treated with extreme caution. Moreover, significant positive composite mean surface and tropospheric temperature anomalies centred over the same region are also observed for the FD sample from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. Such increased temperatures are inconsistent with the radiative effect of a reduction in high-level cloud during local winter. Overall, the results do not provide strong evidence of a direct galactic cosmic ray/cloud association at short timescales. The results highlight (a) the potential problems of data quality in the high latitude regions (b) the problems inherent in inferring cause and effect relationships from observational data alone (c) the need for further research to test competing hypotheses

Radiative forcing from the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption

Volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere produce significant long-term solar and infrared radiative perturbations in the Earth's atmosphere and at the surface, which cause a response of the climate system. Here we study the fundamental process of the development of this volcanic radiative forcing, focusing on the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines on June 15, 1991. We develop a spectral-, space-, and time-dependent set of aerosol parameters for 2 years after the Pinatubo eruption using a combination of SAGE II aerosol extinctions and UARS-retrieved effective radii, supported by SAM II, AVHRR, lidar and balloon observations. Using these data, we calculate the aerosol radiative forcing with the ECHAM4 general circulation model (GCM) for cases with climatological and observed sea surface temperature (SST), as well as with and without climate response. We find that the aerosol radiative forcing is not sensitive to the climate variations caused by SST or the atmospheric response to the aerosols, except in regions with varying dense cloudiness. The solar forcing in the near infrared contributes substantially to the total stratospheric heating. A complete formulation of radiative forcing should include not only changes of net fluxes at the tropopause but also the vertical distribution of atmospheric heating rates and the change of downward thermal and net solar radiative fluxes at the surface. These forcing and aerosol data are available for GCM experiments with any spatial and spectral resolution. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union

Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing

The NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (WACCM3), is used to study the atmospheric response from the surface to the lower thermosphere to changes in solar and geomagnetic forcing over the 11-year solar cycle. WACCM3 is a general circulation model that incorporates interactive chemistry that solves for both neutral and ion species. Energy inputs include solar radiation and energetic particles, which vary significantly over the solar cycle. This paper presents a comparison of simulations for solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions. Changes in composition and dynamical variables are clearly seen in the middle and upper atmosphere, and these in turn affect terms in the energy budget. Generally good agreement is found between the model response and that derived from satellite observations, although significant differences remain. A small but statistically significant response is predicted in tropospheric winds and temperatures which is consistent with signals observed in reanalysis data sets

Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of nonoceanic drivers

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale

Escaping the Big Brother: an empirical study on factors influencing identification and information leakage on the Web

This paper presents a study on factors that may increase the risks of personal information leakage, due to the possibility of connecting user profiles that are not explicitly linked together. First, we introduce a technique for user identification based on cross-site checking and linking of user attributes. Then, we describe the experimental evaluation of the identification technique both on a real setting and on an online sample, showing its accuracy to discover unknown personal data. Finally, we combine the results on the accuracy of identification with the results of a questionnaire completed by the same subjects who performed the test on the real setting. The aim of the study was to discover possible factors that make users vulnerable to this kind of techniques. We found out that the number of social networks used, their features and especially the amount of profiles abandoned and forgotten by the user are factors that increase the likelihood of identification and the privacy risks

Anatomical and biomechanical evaluation of the tension band technique in patellar fractures

Tension band wiring for patellar fractures is common, but some recent reports refer to disadvantages of this approach. Our anatomical and biomechanical study focused on use of tension band techniques in patellar fractures. The anatomy of the patella and tendon insertion was examined with knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and correlated with the technical requirements of the tension band. Tension band wiring over tendinous tissue was simulated and calculated with a cyclic biomechanical test on cow patellae. According to tension band templating on the MRI section, Kirschner wire insertion was needed for the tension band to turn over the tendinous tissue. The tension band became more stable while turning over less tendinous tissue and more adjacent bone surface. Nevertheless, cyclic loading tests indicate that all tension band applications in this study lose their initial stability. Excessive initial compression by the tension band resulted in bending of the Kirschner wire and thus reduction failure. For optimum stabilisation, tension force transfer should be done directly on bone or at least material that protects the tendon would be useful