21 research outputs found
A permanent campaign? Tweeting differences among members of Congress between campaign and routine periods
Das Wirtschaftswachstum und die ObjektivitƤt seiner Darstellung in den Medien. Eine normative und empirische Betrachtung
Social interactions in voting behavior: distinguishing between strategic voting and the bandwagon effect
Prior studies ofĀ strategicĀ votingĀ inĀ multi-party elections potentially overestimate the extent of it by counting erroneously votes cast under different motivations asĀ strategicĀ votes. We propose a method that corrects some of this overestimation byĀ distinguishingbetweenĀ strategicĀ votingĀ (votingĀ for a candidate other than the most preferred one to reduce the likelihood of an election victory by a third candidate that is disliked even more) and the votes cast under the ābandwagonĀ effectā (votingĀ for the expected winner instead of the most preferred party to conform to the majority or to be on the winning side). Our method follows from the observation that a vote cannot beĀ strategicĀ unless the voter believes that it will affect the outcome of the election with a non-zero probability, while a vote cast under theĀ bandwagonĀ effectĀ requires no such belief. Employing survey data that include the respondentās assessment of the importance of his vote, we illustrate this method by estimating the extent ofĀ strategicĀ votingĀ inĀ the 2005 UK general election. The estimated extent ofĀ strategicĀ votingĀ (4.22Ā %) is strictly less than self-reportedĀ strategicĀ votingĀ (6.94Ā %), but the discrepancy cannot be attributedĀ inĀ a statistically significant way to theĀ bandwagonĀ effect, suggesting that motivations other than those identifiedĀ inthe literature may be at work.