Pests and Agricultural Production under Climate Change

Although the effect of climate change on agricultural pests has been studied by biologists, thus far, large-scale assessments of climate change and agriculture have not included the impact of pests. We develop a simple theoretical model of farmer-pest interaction under climate change and explore the potential impacts on land values.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Production Incentives from Static Decoupling: Entry, Exit and Use Exclusion Restrictions

The use of agricultural decoupled support has increased as World Trade Organization (WTO) member nations implement less trade distortive policies. However, the true production effects of these policies are still unclear. We show how the exclusion restrictions of U.S. direct payments, namely, the fruit and vegetable restriction and the requirement of keeping land in good agricultural use, cause the decoupled payment to become fully coupled over time as relative profits adjust. Theoretically, decoupled payments can be more trade distorting than an equivalent (same level of taxpayer expenditure) fully coupled subsidy.decoupled payments, infra-marginal support, cross-subsidization, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Q15, Q17, Q18,

Why farmers sometimes love risks: evidence from India

Using a unique data set collected among farmers in India’s semiarid tropics, we document the surprising prevalence of risk-taking behavior in the face of realistically framed high-stakes gambles. We hypothesize that this apparently anomalous behavior is due to a combination of credit constraints and nonconvexities in production. In particular, the high-stakes nature of the gambles creates the potential for a farmer to undertake a productive investment that would normally be unaffordable and thereby move to a permanently higher level of income. We show that the degree to which farmers are willing to accept risk in return for this opportunity appears to relate in an intuitive way to their current agricultural production technology as well as the demographic composition of their household

On the EU–U.S. Biodiesel ‘Splash & Dash' Controversy: Causes, Consequences and Policy Recommendations

Replaced with revised version of paper on 10/26/10.splash & dash, biodiesel, blender’s tax credit, tax exemption, trade, European Union, Unites States, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, Q17, Q27, Q42,

Carbon Leakage with Forestation Policies

This paper analyzes carbon leakage due to reduced emissions from deforestation (RED). We find that leakage with RED is good because the policy induces afforestation that contributes to a further carbon sequestration. By ignoring the domestic component of carbon leakage, the literature can either overestimate or underestimate leakage, depending on the magnitudes of the numerator and the denominator of the leakage formulas. Unlike the literature, we include the land and agricultural markets in the analysis of carbon leakage with forestation policies. In this model, carbon leakage depends on: (1) supply and demand elasticities of timber production and consumption, respectively in the country introducing a RED policy (Home country) and in the rest of the world; (2) Home country’s production and consumption share in the world timber production and consumption, respectively; (3) prices of land and crop products in the Home country and the rest of the world; (4) initial allocation of land between forestry and agriculture; (5) share of total forest area set aside under RED; and (6) relative carbon sequestration potential of the forest planted on an afforested land and of the forest withdrawn from timber harvest. These potentials depend heavily on the forest species as well as on timing of the policy, and on the discount rate and time path of increasing carbon prices.carbon leakage, forestry, reduced emissions from deforestation, afforestation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q23, Q24, Q54,

Modeling Carbon Leakages with Forestation Policies

This paper analyzes carbon leakage due to reduced emissions from deforestation (RED). We find that leakage with RED is good because the policy induces afforestation that contributes to a further carbon sequestration. By ignoring the domestic component of carbon leakage, the literature can either overestimate or underestimate leakage, depending on the magnitudes of the numerator and the denominator of the leakage formulas. Unlike the literature, we include the land and agricultural markets in the analysis of carbon leakage with forestation policies. In this model, carbon leakage depends on: (1) supply and demand elasticities of timber production and consumption, respectively in the country introducing a RED policy (Home country) and in the rest of the world; (2) Home country's production and consumption share in the world timber production and consumption, respectively; (3) prices of land and crop products in the Home country and the rest of the world; (4) initial allocation of land between forestry and agriculture; (5) share of total forest area set aside under RED; and (6) relative carbon sequestration potential of the forest planted on an afforested land and of the forest withdrawn from timber harvest. These potentials depend heavily on the forest species as well as on timing of the policy, and on the discount rate and time path of increasing carbon prices.carbon leakage, forestry, reduced emissions from deforestation, afforestation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q23, Q24, Q54,

Smarter Lunchrooms: Using Behavioral Economics to Improve Meal Selection

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Consumer Financed Export Subsidies and the Agreement on Agriculture

International Relations/Trade,

Loss Aversion and Reference Points in Contracts

Loss aversion has become the dominant alternative to expected utility theory for modeling choice under uncertainty. The setting of the base payment in contracts provides an interesting application of referenced based decision theory. The impact of loss aversion on contract structure depends critically on whether reservation opportunities (outside options) are evaluated with respect to the reference point implied in the contract. We show that when reservation opportunities are independent of the reference point, reward contracts are optimal. However, when reservation opportunities are evaluated against the reference point, then penalty contracts are more efficient.Risk and Uncertainty, L14, D81, D21, D82,

The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Fluctuations: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

Many governments try to stabilize commodity prices based on the widespread belief that households value price stability and that the poor especially benefit from food price stabilization. We derive an exact measure of multivariate price risk aversion and of associated household willingness to pay for price stabilization across multiple commodities. Using data from a panel of Ethiopian households, we estimate that the average household would be willing to pay 6-32 percent of its income to eliminate fluctuations in the prices of the seven primary food commodities. But not everyone benefits from price stabilization. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the welfare gains from eliminating price fluctuations would be concentrated in the upper 40 percent of the income distribution, making food price stabilization a distributionally regressive policy in this context.Price Fluctuations; Price Stabilization; Price Risk; Risk and Uncertainty