Job Flows and Establishment Characteristics: Variations Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas

This paper addresses the role played within metropolitan areas by heterogeneous agent models of constant churning. The evidence shows positive relationships between job turnover, young establishments, and metropolitan employment growth. Most areas, however, differ in their levels of job creation rather than job destruction. Results persist after controlling for regional differences in industry, but less so when controlling for differences in the establishment age distribution, and are consistent overall with standard models of creative destruction. Evidence from several entering cohorts, however, contradicts the vintage replacement process of creative destruction models. Namely, job destruction decreases as establishments age and there is no clear inverse relation between establishment entry rates and exit ages. These patterns are instead consistent with a turnover process seen in standard models of firm learning. Further evidence suggests that these patterns vary systematically with the overall employment growth of a region. Together, the results suggest that (i) processes of both creative destruction and firm learning may matter for local labor dynamics, but future models will have to reconcile with this new evidence, and (ii) intrinsic local factors, such as the “business climate”, may affect the dynamics of both processes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39995/3/wp609.pd

Exact constraints on D≤10\leq 10 Myers Perry black holes and the Wald Problem

Exact relations on the existence of event horizons of Myers Perry black holes are obtained in $D\leq 10$ dimensions. It is further shown that naked singularities can not be produced by "spinning-up" these black holes by shooting particles into their $\lfloor\frac{D-1}{2}\rfloor$ equatorial planes.Comment: 7 pages, 11 figures, version two corrects an earlier error in equation (35) and adds some plots for cohomogeneity-2 and 3 black hole

What’s In a City?: Understanding the Micro-Level Employer Dynamics Underlying Urban Growth

This paper synthesizes the literatures on labor dynamics and urban growth and agglomeration by presenting new evidence on the micro-level establishment dynamics of metropolitan areas. I explore how the patterns of job reallocation and entry and exit affect the growth and composition of these areas. I find that high-growth metropolitan areas have high rates of job and establishment turnover, primarily though higher rates of gross job creation and establishment entry, and have a relatively young distribution of establishments. Variations in the age distribution and differences in the entry and exit patterns of young establishments account for a sizeable portion of regional differences in labor dynamics and growth, even after controlling for regional differences in industry composition. These results suggest that variations in the age distribution and the dynamics that lead to such variations are important factors in understanding urban growth and agglomeration.Job Reallocation; Urban Growth and Agglomeration; Firm Dynamics

Job Flows and Establishment Characteristics: Variations Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas

This paper addresses the role played within metropolitan areas by heterogeneous agent models of constant churning. The evidence shows positive relationships between job turnover, young establishments, and metropolitan employment growth. Most areas, however, differ in their levels of job creation rather than job destruction. Results persist after controlling for regional differences in industry, but less so when controlling for differences in the establishment age distribution, and are consistent overall with standard models of creative destruction. Evidence from several entering cohorts, however, contradicts the vintage replacement process of creative destruction models. Namely, job destruction decreases as establishments age and there is no clear inverse relation between establishment entry rates and exit ages. These patterns are instead consistent with a turnover process seen in standard models of firm learning. Further evidence suggests that these patterns vary systematically with the overall employment growth of a region. Together, the results suggest that (i) processes of both creative destruction and firm learning may matter for local labor dynamics, but future models will have to reconcile with this new evidence, and (ii) intrinsic local factors, such as the “business climate”, may affect the dynamics of both processes.job turnover, regional and urban growth, creative destruction, firm learning

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Dynamic Microeconomic Models

This paper develops methods for estimating dynamic structural microeconomic models with serially correlated latent state variables. The proposed estimators are based on sequential Monte Carlo methods, or particle filters, and simultaneously estimate both the structural parameters and the trajectory of the unobserved state variables for each observational unit in the dataset. We focus two important special cases: single agent dynamic discrete choice models and dynamic games of incomplete information. The methods are applicable to both discrete and continuous state space models. We first develop a broad nonlinear state space framework which includes as special cases many dynamic structural models commonly used in applied microeconomics. Next, we discuss the nonlinear filtering problem that arises due to the presence of a latent state variable and show how it can be solved using sequential Monte Carlo methods. We then turn to estimation of the structural parameters and consider two approaches: an extension of the standard full-solution maximum likelihood procedure (Rust, 1987) and an extension of the two-step estimation method of Bajari, Benkard, and Levin (2007), in which the structural parameters are estimated using revealed preference conditions. Finally, we introduce an extension of the classic bus engine replacement model of Rust (1987) and use it both to carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments and to provide empirical results using the original data.dynamic discrete choice, latent state variables, serial correlation, sequential Monte Carlo methods, particle filtering

Job Flows and the Recent Business Cycle: Not All "Recoveries" Are Created Equal

The last two economic downturns are notable for their slow labor market recoveries. Yet, the behavior of their underlying gross job flows is quite different. The 1990-92 period had a relatively slow decline in job destruction, while the 2001-03 period had a large, persistent decline in job creation that occurs across most industries. The dynamics of the latter period run counter to the conventional wisdom that large movements in job destruction drive business cycles. Evidence spanning the entire postwar period suggests that job creation is at a historic low, and that its recent patterns are part of decades-long decline in the magnitude and volatility of job reallocation.Job Reallocation; Business Cycles; Employment Fluctuations

Will the rural economy rebound with the rest of the nation?

Rural areas ; Rural development

The relationship between the establishment age distribution and urban growth

This paper presents new evidence on the relationship between a metropolitan area’s employment growth and its establishment age distribution. The author finds that cities with a relatively younger distribution of establishments tend to have higher growth, as well as higher job and establishment turnover. Geographic variations in the age distribution account for 38 percent of the geographic differences in growth, compared to the 32 percent accounted for by variations in industry composition. Differences are disproportionately accounted for by entrants and young (5 years or younger) establishments. Furthermore, the relationship between age and growth is robust to controls for urban diversity and education. Overall, the results support a microfoundations view of urban growth, where the benefits of agglomeration affect firms not through some production externality but through a process that determines which firms enter, exit, and thrive at a given location.

How do businesses recruit?

Most economic theories of hiring and job seeking assume that businesses post vacancies when they demand more labor. Workers then apply for the job, and the most qualified candidate is hired. However, as those who have ever recruited or applied for a job know, the recruiting process is considerably more complex. In this article, Jason Faberman discusses some recent research on how employers recruit. It shows that the extent to which a business uses various recruiting channels depends on the characteristics of the employer, how fast the employer is growing (or contracting), and the overall state of the economy.Employment