Bayesian analysis of interiors of HD 219134b, Kepler-10b, Kepler-93b, CoRoT-7b, 55 Cnc e, and HD 97658b using stellar abundance proxies

Using a generalized Bayesian inference method, we aim to explore the possible interior structures of six selected exoplanets for which planetary mass and radius measurements are available in addition to stellar host abundances: HD~219134b, Kepler-10b, Kepler-93b, CoRoT-7b, 55~Cnc~e, and HD~97658b. We aim to investigate the importance of stellar abundance proxies for the planetary bulk composition (namely Fe/Si and Mg/Si) on prediction of planetary interiors. We performed a full probabilistic Bayesian inference analysis to formally account for observational and model uncertainties while obtaining confidence regions of structural and compositional parameters of core, mantle, ice layer, ocean, and atmosphere. We determined how sensitive our parameter predictions depend on (1) different estimates of bulk abundance constraints and (2) different correlations of bulk abundances between planet and host star. [...] Although the possible ranges of interior structures are large, structural parameters and their correlations are constrained by the sparse data. The probability for the tested exoplanets to be Earth-like is generally very low. Furthermore, we conclude that different estimates of planet bulk abundance constraints mainly affect mantle composition and core size.Comment: Astronomy & Astrophysics, 597, A38 (15 pages, 9 figures

Implications of the spectroscopic abundances in α Centauri A and B

Regardless of their close proximity, abundance measurements for both stars in α Centauri by different groups have led to varying results. We have chosen to combine the abundance ratios from five similar data sets in order to reduce systematic effects that may have caused inconsistencies. With these collated relative abundance measurements, we find that the α Cen system and the Sun were likely formed from the same material, despite the [Fe/H] enrichment observed in the α Cen binaries: 0.28 and 0.31 dex, respectively. Both α Centauri A and B exhibit relative abundance ratios that are generally solar, with the mean at 0.002 and 0.03 dex, respectively. The refractory elements (condensation temperature ≳ 900 K) in each have a mean of −0.02 and 0.01 dex and a 1σ uncertainty of 0.09 and 0.11 dex, respectively. Given the trends seen when analysing the refractory abundances [X/Fe] with condensation temperature, we find it possible that α Centauri A may host a yet undiscovered planet

On the Habitable Zones of Circumbinary Planetary Systems

The effect of the stellar flux on exoplanetary systems is becoming an increasingly important property as more planets are discovered in the habitable zone (HZ). The Kepler mission has recently uncovered circumbinary planets with relatively complex HZs due to the combined flux from the binary host stars. Here, we derive HZ boundaries for circumbinary systems and show their dependence on the stellar masses, separation, and time while accounting for binary orbital motion and the orbit of the planet. We include stability regimes for planetary orbits in binary systems with respect to the HZ. These methods are applied to several of the known circumbinary planetary systems such as Kepler-16, 34, 35, and 47. We also quantitatively show the circumstances under which single-star approximations break down for HZ calculations

Habitability of Exomoons at the Hill or Tidal Locking Radius

Moons orbiting extrasolar planets are the next class of object to be observed and characterized for possible habitability. Like the host-planets to their host-star, exomoons have a limiting radius at which they may be gravitationally bound, or the Hill radius. In addition, they also have a distance at which they will become tidally locked and therefore in synchronous rotation with the planet. We have examined the flux phase profile of a simulated, hypothetical moon orbiting at a distant radius around the confirmed exoplanets μ Ara b, HD 28185 b, BD +14 4559 b, and HD 73534 b. The irradiated flux on a moon at its furthest, stable distance from the planet achieves its largest flux gradient, which places a limit on the flux ranges expected for subsequent (observed) moons closer in orbit to the planet. We have also analyzed the effect of planetary eccentricity on the flux on the moon, examining planets that traverse the habitable zone either fully or partially during their orbit. Looking solely at the stellar contributions, we find that moons around planets that are totally within the habitable zone experience thermal equilibrium temperatures above the runaway greenhouse limit, requiring a small heat redistribution efficiency. In contrast, exomoons orbiting planets that only spend a fraction of their time within the habitable zone require a heat redistribution efficiency near 100% in order to achieve temperatures suitable for habitability. This means that a planet does not need to spend its entire orbit within the habitable zone in order for the exomoon to be habitable. Because the applied systems comprise giant planets around bright stars, we believe that the transit detection method is most likely to yield an exomoon discovery

Report on uncertainty methods

The issue of uncertainty is critical for climate change science and policy. A great deal of research analysis has gone into identifying the scope and character of uncertainty in climate change itself, in how analysts and assessment teams can and should communicate that uncertainty to policy- and decision-makers, and how policy- and decision-makers can then incorporate nowledge about the sources and magnitude of uncertainty in their choices. The primary purpose of this deliverable is to summarize that literature, and to synthesize it in a manner that is useful for the Mediation project, namely in improving the practice of assessing adaptaion needs and options, and in building a useful decision-support platform or system. The report starts with a user-driven focus, summarizing the literatures on both descriptive and normative models of decision-making under uncertainty, in order to identify the most effective and esential information inputs for each of these models. The report then summarizes some of the main guidance documents on communicating uncertanty, prepared for or in use by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United States government, and the Dutch government. Fially, the report synthesizes these previous studies for use in the Mediation project and its users by focusing on three essential characteristics of uncertainty communication: parsimony, personalization, and practicality. It identifies specific strategies for using these three criteria to ensure that assessments for climate adaptation are salient, credible, and legitimate, and thus ultimately construtive inputs into policy- and decision-making