Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran

the adoption of climate smart agriculture the role of information and insurance under climate change

Climate change adds to the existing challenges in improving crop productivity and welfare for smallholder agricultural households by affecting the mean and variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events. In the face of such growing uncertainty, agricultural practices of small landholders need to be adapted to better manage the changing risk structures. Since government risk management programs may complement or substitute for farmer adaptation, this chapter examines how a range of institutional interventions might assist, obstruct, channel, or change smallholder agricultural adaptation to climate change. Taken together, our results underscore the importance of the informational role of the agriculture extension, suggest that insurance can lead to significant changes in farmer planting and land management decisions, and show how information about changing conditions and insurance can be complimentary in driving changes in farmer behavior

Livelihood responses to Lantana camara invasion and biodiversity change in southern India: application of an asset function framework

Natural resources play key roles as assets in the livelihoods of rural communities. However, the benefits of these assets in livelihoods are frequently conceived narrowly as income generating or vulnerability reducing. We contend that they have other important roles to play in poverty reduction and livelihood change. In this paper we use a case study of two ethnic communities in a village in southern India to investigate livelihood responses to change in forest biodiversity through an examination of changes in attributes of natural assets resulting from the invasion of Lantana camara and wider socio-economic change. The invasion of forest by Lantana has contributed to changes in the attributes and functions of four key natural assets: forest grazing, bamboo for basketry, Phoenix loureie for brooms, and wild yams. We observe that differences in households’ and individuals’ ability to substitute important functions of lost or declining assets affect their ability to adapt to changes in resource availability and attributes. Analysing changes in asset attributes for different user groups allows the social effects of environmental change to be disaggregated

Multiple Shocks, Coping and Welfare Consequences: Natural Disasters and Health Shocks in the Indian Sundarbans

Background: Based on a household survey in Indian Sundarbans hit by tropical cyclone Aila in May 2009, this study tests for evidence and argues that health and climatic shocks are essentially linked forming a continuum and with exposure to a marginal one, coping mechanisms and welfare outcomes triggered in the response is significantly affected. Data & Methods: The data for this study is based on a cross-sectional household survey carried out during June 2010. The survey was aimed to assess the impact of cyclone Aila on households and consequent coping mechanisms in three of the worst-affected blocks (a sub-district administrative unit), viz. Hingalganj, Gosaba and Patharpratima. The survey covered 809 individuals from 179 households, cross cutting age and gender. A separate module on health-seeking behaviour serves as the information source of health shocks defined as illness episodes (ambulatory or hospitalized) experienced by household members. Key findings: Finding reveals that over half of the households (54%) consider that Aila has dealt a high, damaging impact on their household assets. Result further shows deterioration of health status in the period following the incidence of Aila. Finding suggests having suffered multiple shocks increases the number of adverse welfare outcomes by 55%. Whereas, suffering either from the climatic shock (33%) or the health shock (25%) alone increases such risks by a much lesser extent. The multiple-shock households face a significantly higher degree of difficulty to finance expenses arising out of health shocks, as opposed to their counterparts facing only the health shock. Further, these households are more likely to finance the expenses through informal loans and credit from acquaintances or moneylenders. Conclusion: This paper presented empirical evidence on how natural and health shocks mutually reinforce their resultant impact, making coping increasingly difficult and present significant risks of welfare loss, having short as well as long-run development manifestations.DFI

Climate change adaptation options in farming communities of selected Nigerian ecological zones

This chapter examines the impacts of climate change on three tropical crops and assesses the climate change adaptation options adopted by rural farmers in the region. The study was conducted among farming communities settled in three major ecological zones in Nigeria. Over 37 years of data on rainfall and temperature were analyzed to examine climate change impacts on three major crops: rice, maize, and cassava. Farmers' adaptive capacity was assessed with a survey. Climatic data, crop yields, and survey data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The relation between rainfall/temperature and crop yields was examined using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Results show a high variation in the annual rainfall and temperature during the study period. The major findings from this research is that crops in different ecological zones respond differently to climate variation. The result revealed that there is a very strong relationship between precipitation and the yield of rice and cassava at p <0.05 level of significance. The results further showed low level of adaption among the rural farmers. The study concludes that rainfall and temperature variability has a significant impact on crop yield in the study area, but that the adaptive capacity of most farmers to these impacts is low. There is a need for enhancing the adaptation options available to farmers in the region, which should be the focus of government policies

Mothers' education but not fathers' education, household assets or land ownership is the best predictor of child health inequalities in rural Uganda

BACKGROUND: Health and nutrition inequality is a result of a complex web of factors that include socio-economic inequalities. Various socio-economic indicators exist however some do not accurately predict inequalities in children. Others are not intervention feasible. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of four socio-economic indicators namely: mothers' education, fathers' education, household asset index, and land ownership with growth stunting, which is used as a proxy for health and nutrition inequalities among infants and young children. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey conducted in the rural district of Hoima, Uganda. Two-stage cluster sampling design was used to obtain 720 child/mother pairs. Information on indicators of household socio-economic status and child anthropometry was gathered by administering a structured questionnaire to mothers in their home settings. Regression modelling was used to determine the association of socio-economic indicators with stunting. RESULTS: One hundred seventy two (25%) of the studied children were stunted, of which 105 (61%) were boys (p < 0.001). Bivariate analysis indicated a higher prevalence of stunting among children of: non-educated mothers compared to mothers educated above primary school (odds ratio (OR) 2.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4–4.4); non-educated fathers compared to fathers educated above secondary school (OR 1.7, 95% CI 0.8–3.5); households belonging in the "poorest" quintile for the asset index compared to the "least poor" quintile (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2–3.7); Land ownership exhibited no differentials with stunting. Simultaneously adjusting all socio-economic indicators in conditional regression analysis left mothers' education as the only independent predictor of stunting with children of non-educated mothers significantly more likely to be stunted compared to those of mothers educated above primary school (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1–3.9). More boys than girls were significantly stunted in poorer than wealthier socio-economic strata. CONCLUSIONS: Of four socio-economic indicators, mothers' education is the best predictor for health and nutrition inequalities among infants and young children in rural Uganda. This suggests a need for appropriate formal education of the girl child aimed at promoting child health and nutrition. The finding that boys are adversely affected by poverty more than their female counterparts corroborates evidence from previous studies

Oscillatory stimuli differentiate adapting circuit topologies

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record.Biology emerges from interactions between molecules, which are challenging to elucidate with current techniques. An orthogonal approach is to probe for 'response signatures' that identify specific circuit motifs. For example, bistability, hysteresis, or irreversibility are used to detect positive feedback loops. For adapting systems, such signatures are not known. Only two circuit motifs generate adaptation: negative feedback loops (NFLs) and incoherent feed-forward loops (IFFLs). On the basis of computational testing and mathematical proofs, we propose differential signatures: in response to oscillatory stimulation, NFLs but not IFFLs show refractory-period stabilization (robustness to changes in stimulus duration) or period skipping. Applying this approach to yeast, we identified the circuit dominating cell cycle timing. In Caenorhabditis elegans AWA neurons, which are crucial for chemotaxis, we uncovered a Ca2+ NFL leading to adaptation that would be difficult to find by other means. These response signatures allow direct access to the outlines of the wiring diagrams of adapting systems.The work was supported by US National Institutes of Health grant 5RO1-GM078153-07 (F.R.C.), NRSA Training Grant CA009673-36A1 (S.J.R.), a Merck Postdoctoral Fellowship at The Rockefeller University (S.J.R.), and the Simons Foundation (S.J.R.). J.L. was supported by a fellowship from the Boehringer Ingelheim Fonds. E.D.S. was partially supported by the US Office of Naval Research (ONR N00014-13-1-0074) and the US Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR FA9550-14-1-0060)

Tracking Climate Change Vulnerability at Municipal Level in Rural Haiti Using Open Data

In least developed tropical countries, vulnerability to climate change (CC) at local scale follows an indicator-based approach and uses information gathered mainly through household surveys or focus groups. Conceived in this way, the vulnerability assessment is rarely repeatable in time, cannot be compared with those carried out in other contexts and usually has low spatial coverage. The growing availability of open source information at municipal level, routinely col-lected, now allows us to switch to vulnerability tracking (continuous, low cost, consistent with global monitoring systems). The aim of this chapter is to propose and verify the applicability of a VICC-Vulnerability Index to Climate Change on a municipal scale for Haiti. The chapter identifies open source information on na-tional, departmental and municipal scale, selects the information on a municipal scale on the basis of quality, identifies the indicators, evaluates the robustness of the index and measures it. The index consists of 10 indicators created using infor-mation relating to monthly precipitations, population density, flood prone areas, crop deficit, farmers for self-consumption, rural accessibility, local plans for CC adaptation, irrigated agriculture and cholera incidence. This information is gath-ered for the 125 mainly rural municipalities of Haiti. The description and discus-sion of the results in followed by suggestions to improve the index aimed at do-nors, local authorities and users

Whole genome sequencing identifies zoonotic transmission of MRSA isolates with the novel mecA homologue mecC

This work was supported by a Medical Research Council (MRC) Partnership Grant (G1001787/1) held between the Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge (M. A. H.), the School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge (S. J. P.), the Moredun Research Institute (R. N. Z.) and the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute (J. P. and S. J. P.).Several methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages that carry a novel mecA homologue (mecC) have recently been described in livestock and humans. In Denmark, two independent human cases of mecC-MRSA infection have been linked to a livestock reservoir. We investigated the molecular epidemiology of the associated MRSA isolates using whole genome sequencing (WGS). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were defined and compared to a reference genome to place the isolates into a phylogenetic context. Phylogenetic analysis revealed two distinct farm-specific clusters comprising isolates from the human case and their own livestock, whereas human and animal isolates from the same farm only differed by a small number of SNPs, which supports the likelihood of zoonotic transmission. Further analyses identified a number of genes and mutations that may be associated with host interaction and virulence. This study demonstrates that mecC-MRSA ST130 isolates are capable of transmission between animals and humans, and underscores the potential of WGS in epidemiological investigations and source tracking of bacterial infections. See accompanying article http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/emmm.201302622Publisher PDFPeer reviewe