Recursive Monte Carlo filters: Algorithms and theoretical analysis

Recursive Monte Carlo filters, also called particle filters, are a powerful tool to perform computations in general state space models. We discuss and compare the accept--reject version with the more common sampling importance resampling version of the algorithm. In particular, we show how auxiliary variable methods and stratification can be used in the accept--reject version, and we compare different resampling techniques. In a second part, we show laws of large numbers and a central limit theorem for these Monte Carlo filters by simple induction arguments that need only weak conditions. We also show that, under stronger conditions, the required sample size is independent of the length of the observed series.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000426 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Comment: The 2005 Neyman Lecture: Dynamic Indeterminism in Science

Comment on ``The 2005 Neyman Lecture: Dynamic Indeterminism in Science'' [arXiv:0808.0620]Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS246B the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Experience with historical monetary unions

Monetary unions of the past had a better chance of success if economic policies of the participating states were in harmony. Example: The Scandinavian Monetary Union in contrast to the Latin Monetary Union. 0 Since harmony of economic policies could not be maintained under political stress (in the First World War), even the Scandinavian Union failed. .1 0 The only cases where monetary unions have survived up toQiow are those of general political, economic, and monetary unification: Switzerland, Italy and Germany. In monetary matters, the centralizing of decisions has been a minimum requirement for the success of a union. 0 No historical monetary union has brought about political unification. It has always been the other way round. --

Analysis of the Effects of Large Lot Zoning

This study extends a test for the presence of binding zoning, originally developed to be applied across many adjacent jurisdictions, so that it can be applied within a single jurisdiction. This study also demonstrates how to carry out this test in the presence of spatially correlated OLS residuals by using a mixed effects model whose coefficients are estimated using the maximum likelihood technique. The study examines twenty years of land sales data from a Midwestern county containing two adjacent cities surrounded by rural areas. A thirty-five-acre acre, minimum lot size in the rural area is found to be binding; while a 9,000 square foot minimum lot size in the cities is found to be not binding.

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of the Value of Vacant Land

This study extends the literature that investigates the use of buyer and seller characteristics in traditional hedonic price equation regressions. This study adds to the existing literature on the relationship between parcel size and price, coined plattage by Colwell and Sirmans (1980). The results reveal statistically significant buyer and seller effects. Also, the results confirm the existence of the plattage effect and reveal a statistically significant change in the plattage effect over time. The findings of this study should prove useful to those interested in the behavior of land markets on an urban fringe.

The Linear Algebra of the Sales Comparison Approach

This study presents the sales comparison approach to value as a system of linear algebra equations. The difference between appraiser and academician views of this system of equations is shown to pivot on the one-price assumption. The need of appraisers to subjectively derive adjustment factors is shown to be an artifact of the common practice of appraisers to assume multiple indicated values. The use of multiple regression analysis and other statistical techniques by academicians is shown to be possible only given the one-price assumption. Suggestions are presented for the improvement of both views.