Development of an airline revenue capability model for aircraft design

Typically value based approaches to the design of civil and commercial aircraft, be they net present value, surplus value, or any other utility based approach focus solely on the difference in cost between the alternatives, neglecting changes in revenue which might occur between the two concepts. Alternatively, if they do have a revenue focus, it is based upon simple relationships between payload capacity and revenue, assuming a either a fixed protfimargin or fixed yield. This approach works well when comparing two similar or closely related concepts, but falls apart when investigating more radically di erent systems, e.g. a cruise eficient short take-o and landing concept. By using a value based approach it is relatively simple to structure a decision model to incorporate changing revenue capability. However, the ability to investigate differences in design is very much dependent upon the revenue model and assumptions that are made. If the revenue elasticity is the same forthe two concepts then there is no benefi t in using a variable revenue approach. However, in the cases where the elasticity is different, the revenue approach offers the potential to more properly investigate some fundamentally different alternative concepts. © 2010 by Peter Sutcliffe & Peter Hollingsworth. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc

Radio Frequency Magneto-Optical Trapping of CaF with High Density

We demonstrate significantly improved magneto-optical trapping of molecules using a very slow cryogenic beam source and RF modulated and DC magnetic fields. The RF MOT confines $1.1(3) \times 10^5$ CaF molecules at a density of $4(1) \times 10^6$ cm$^{-3}$, which is an order of magnitude greater than previous molecular MOTs. Near Doppler-limited temperatures of $340(20)$ $\mu$K are attained. The achieved density enables future work to directly load optical tweezers and create optical arrays for quantum simulation.Comment: 5 Pages, 4 Figure

One dimensional magneto-optical compression of a cold CaF molecular beam

We demonstrate with a RF-MOT the one dimensional, transverse magneto-optical compression of a cold beam of calcium monofluoride (CaF). By continually alternating the magnetic field direction and laser polarizations of the magneto-optical trap, a photon scattering rate of $2\pi \times$0.4 MHz is achieved. A 3D model for this RF-MOT, validated by agreement with data, predicts a 3D RF-MOT capture velocity for CaF of 5 m/s

Laser slowing of CaF molecules to near the capture velocity of a molecular MOT

Laser slowing of CaF molecules down to the capture velocity of a magneto-optical trap (MOT) for molecules is achieved. Starting from a two-stage buffer gas beam source, we apply frequency-broadened "white-light" slowing and observe approximately 6x10^4 CaF molecules with velocities near 10\,m/s. CaF is a candidate for collisional studies in the mK regime. This work represents a significant step towards magneto-optical trapping of CaF

Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional extrapolation methods or equal-weights combined extrapolations. RBF is most useful when it is based on good domain knowledge, the domain knowledge is important, the series is well behaved (such that patterns can be identified), there is a strong trend in the data, and the forecast horizon is long. Under ideal conditions, the error for RBF’s forecasts were one-third less than those for equal-weights combining. When these conditions are absent, RBF neither improves nor harms forecast accuracy. Some of RBF’s rules can be used with traditional extrapolation procedures. In a series of studies, rules based on causal forces improved the selection of forecasting methods, the structuring of time series, and the assessment of prediction intervals

Germline heterozygous DDX41 variants in a subset of familial myelodysplasia and acute myeloid leukemia

The Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development), Bloodwise, Children with Cancer and MRC (Medical Research Council, UK)